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1. Embed this notice
   Alon (alon@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 14:40:19 JST Alon

   • mekka okereke :verified:

   I'm glad I'm seeing pushback by @mekkaokereke against the "women hiding their votes from their husbands" meme. I'm sure it exists, but it's not a big factor, and in exit polls in the US, married women vote almost the same as married men - the gender gap is about younger and unmarried voters, whereas a large majority of women married to Republican men are Republican themselves. Go to https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results and scroll down to gender by marital status.

   • mekka okereke :verified: repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     Dave (laird_dave@chaos.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 15:41:01 JST Dave

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke and it's a rather logical argument that married couples vote similarly.

     I'd never have married my wife in the first place if we didn't align (somewhat) politically. We're both green/left. I see no reason why the opposite should be true for people on the other side of the political spectrum.

     There *are* couples with different values, sure. How likely is it they're going to vote in the first place? Or that they're making informed choices instead of "Daddy always voted D/R/I"?

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:10:00 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Grassroots Joe

     @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     OK Grassroots Joe replied in good faith!👍🏿 He didn't get angry at me or anyone else. He just is unsure about if things have changed. The usual election "this time it's different, white women will vote differently this time because [fascist] has done something that women don't like."

     So I'll answer the question.

     Most of the increase in "women's" support of Harris, and against Trump, over the past 4 years has come from *Black women*. Still at 90%, but *turnout increased*🤷🏿♂️

   • Embed this notice
     Grassroots Joe (joeinwynnewood@mstdn.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:10:01 JST Grassroots Joe

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke

     National numbers for '22 are not relevant. Simon Rosenberg spoke about this expense extensively, that there were two elections in '22, one in the Battleground States where Dobbs impacted, another in the rest.
     I don't see how you can get only white married women using the available filtering, but here are white women and married women for Fetterman in Pennsylvania, who did substantially worse than Shapiro, in part because of his stroke.

   • Embed this notice
     Alon (alon@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:10:02 JST Alon

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Grassroots Joe

     @joeinwynnewood @mekkaokereke Check link elsewhere in thread: married women voted like married men in 2022, same as 2020.

   • Embed this notice
     Grassroots Joe (joeinwynnewood@mstdn.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:10:03 JST Grassroots Joe

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke

     Past performance isn't predictive of future performance, as the mutual fund disclaimer goes.

     There's no way to know what the impact of Dobbs will be, especially as stories of maternal death & injury multiply and spread.

     I doubt the amount of split voting will explode, but I really doubt it won't increase in a statistically significant way. I'm also skeptical exit polls can obtain an accurate picture.

     I've seen the husband blocking move so many times knocking doors.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:14:23 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Grassroots Joe

     @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     The reason it's so hard to find breakouts by race when people write headlines like:

     * "A surge in "women voters" registration after Harris announced for president!"

     And

     * "Massive voter registration ahead of vote for abortion!"

     There were a few elections where the shift was white women. But in most of these cases, the additional white women voters *are split or close to split in their support*, and most of the progressive shift comes from *Black women*.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:19:10 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Grassroots Joe

     @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     And, despite what the media (And even what Obama may try to sell you at some points), from a rebound in support of *Black men*

     https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-candidacy-led-surge-black-voter-enthusiasm-make/story?id=112196882

     Because like I said, about 20% of Black men were ready to sit the election out if Biden was the candidate. And this would have cost Dems the election. Because Biden panders to racists, and passes devastatingly racist legislation.

     My whole point: pandering to racists *decreases* Black voters turnout, and losses elections

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:23:20 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Grassroots Joe
     • Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     @benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     But we don't need to torture and divide them.

     We need to not do or say things that will decrease Black men voters turnout in the last days of the election.

     Y'all are not hearing me that this stunt can cost Harris Georgia and North Carolina. No, I'm not being hyperbolic. Yes, it is that close. Yes, it does upset Black men that much. No, Black men do not trust most white Dem voters, and are trying to trust Harris, but stunts like this do no't help.

   • Embed this notice
     Ben Royce 🇺🇦 (benroyce@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:23:21 JST Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Grassroots Joe

     @mekkaokereke @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     i agree with you 100%

     however, it's interesting how "white women voting against their bigot husbands' wishes" rattles white bigoted men

     so the audience for the narrative is not lefty types with rose colored glasses

     it's the misogynistic racist men they are married to

     it's a perfect earworm for their insecurity, and it has a lot of traction on the right:

     https://www.salon.com/2024/11/01/that-is-sick-newt-gingrich-loses-it-over-ad-informing-women-they-can-secretly-vote-for-harris/

     so i support the narrative *in the rightwing echo chamber* to torture them

   • Embed this notice
     Ben Royce 🇺🇦 (benroyce@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:34:48 JST Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Grassroots Joe

     @mekkaokereke @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     understood

     i'm getting my rocks off torturing the bigots

     but it's not good strategy

     i see it

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:34:48 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Grassroots Joe
     • Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     @benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     If the US had dropped pamphlets over Nazi Germany saying "Attention Eva Braun and Anny Geiger! We know that you do not agree with what's going on! We can rescue you! You are safe from your husband!"

     US soldiers might have seen this as a funny stunt to cause strife in Nazi households. Some US soldiers might have anecdotes that some DE wives really did want out. But mostly, people that had suffered directly under Eva and Anny would be shocked and disappointed.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:38:05 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Grassroots Joe
     • Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     @benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     Let me spell it out: there are about 10,000 Black men in Georgia right now. They will decide the Georgia election. These men themselves don't even know specifically who they are.🤷🏿♂️

     These men had already decided not to vote for Biden, because they are sick of his pandering to racists nonsense. They were going to sit it out😮

     These men then all decided that they would vote for Kamala Harris. But they are not strongly decided.

     If they sit out, Trump wins Georgia.

   • Embed this notice
     Benjamin Ross (benrosstransit@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:45:45 JST Benjamin Ross

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke Canvassing in Pennsylvania I've been to plenty of houses where the wife is voting D and the husband R. Mostly the husband knows, but I was at one where the wife whispered to me & said don't let my husband hear this.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:45:45 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Benjamin Ross

     @BenRossTransit @Alon

     No one is saying it doesn't exist. I'm saying that it doesn't exist to anywhere near the level that people claim it does, and that there are households where wives coerce husbands to vote for fascists, and that this has less to do with vote integrity or combating domestic violence (both great things) and more to do with making excuses for the fact that the majority of white women vote for Trump

     This country has never been comfortable believing how many racist women exist

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:51:45 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Grassroots Joe
     • Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     @benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     Every campaign action for the next few days should be run through the very simple filter:

     Will this upset these 10,000 Black men in Georgia, and make them decide not to vote at all?

     If the answer is yes, then that action should not be taken at all.

     There's another 5000 Black men deciding North Carolina, and another 7,000 in Pennsylvania. The good news is, they all get upset by the same stuff!🤷🏿♂️

     So it should be easy for Harris to not lose the election.

   • Embed this notice
     Ben Royce 🇺🇦 (benroyce@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 21:52:12 JST Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Grassroots Joe

     @mekkaokereke @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     good analogy

     so julia roberts is wwii radio propaganda from the allies:

     https://www.foxnews.com/media/julia-roberts-mocked-campaign-ad-telling-women-can-vote-differently-from-husbands

     like:

     https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/fake-british-radio-show-helped-defeat-nazis-180962320/

     the axis had their shit slingers too:

     axis sally and tokyo rose

     (but the real story of "tokyo rose" is how Iva Toguri D'Aquino was treated after the war, racist overreaction):

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Rose

     if only there was a way to target bigots

     but as you say it spills over and has negative effects on the left's strategy

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 22:34:43 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Oggie
     • Grassroots Joe
     • Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     @Oggie @benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

     Galvanize who? The 10,000 Black men in Atlanta I talked about? If so they didn't need to be galvanized. They needed to be assured that Harris would not sell them out to pander to their abusers.

   • Embed this notice
     Oggie (oggie@woof.group)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 22:34:44 JST Oggie

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Grassroots Joe
     • Ben Royce 🇺🇦

     @mekkaokereke @benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon
     After watching this, I feel like there is (probably accidentally?) some rebound effect on this. Not the ad itself, I suspect that was off putting ( if you say infuriating, I will concede that, just felt more like 'ugh, really?' in my mental model).

     However. The way the conservatives are reacting to it, and the tone they are taking just makes them look -awful- and might galvanize. I am not confident in this, but it feels... possible.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 22:38:28 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Benjamin Ross
     • Defarge

     @Defarge @BenRossTransit @Alon

     🤣You're foolish enough or racist enough to believe that I hate white women, because I don't tolerate racism from anyone, including white women.

     And I already know that you don't know 10 Black women. Because if you did, you would already know that most of the racism that they experience, is from white women. And no one speaks up for Black women when this happens, because everyone is afraid of calling racist white women on their BS.

     Not me though. I call it out.

   • Embed this notice
     Defarge (defarge@social.linux.pizza)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 22:38:35 JST Defarge

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Benjamin Ross

     @BenRossTransit @Alon @mekkaokereke

     Thanks for acknowledging, Ben.

     Since sexism is the OG bigotry it's easy for men, including black men who hate white women, to deny abuse of women. I wonder if mekka denies abuse of black women as stridently as he does of white women.

     Just like racism, sexism happens.

     This country has never been comfortable believing how many men abuse women.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 22:45:40 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Benjamin Ross
     • Defarge

     @Defarge @BenRossTransit @Alon

     But yes, sexism is bad, and exists. Abuse is bad, and exists. Nowhere did I say that domestic violence isn't bad, or that coercion doesn't happen. I even said that if Eva Braun was a victim of DV, that this a bad thing. DV is never OK.

     But that doesn't justify Eva Braun cosigning fascism, racism, and abuse of others.

     https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/113404218790221429

     She had agency in her choices. So do almost all of the racist women that are MAGA for the racism.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 22:58:47 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Benjamin Ross
     • Defarge

     @Defarge @BenRossTransit @Alon

     Since you don't even have enough Black women in your life to call you in, at least do some reading by Black women?

     When you get to the part about white fragility, you've arrived at the good stuff.

     https://chacruna.net/how-white-feminists-oppress-black-women-when-feminism-functions-as-white-supremacy/

     I reject the white feminism that fails to protect Black women (and men) from the white women that abuse us. If your feminism is not intersectional, we won't get along. I'm not here to fight racism from men, but ignore it from women.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:04:48 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Benjamin Ross
     • Defarge

     @Defarge @BenRossTransit @Alon

     You are not my supporter. I don't even like you.

     You come in with some half-baked "you are a misogynist" take, and expect grace? No. Go away.

     Your opinion is not mild. It's trying to hide behind a shield of faux-feminism to minimize my calling out of racism. This is the violence of white feminism. And I reject it.

     My volunteer work literally keeps Black people alive and safe from exactly the type of soft spoken violence you're bringing right now.

   • Embed this notice
     Defarge (defarge@social.linux.pizza)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:04:49 JST Defarge

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Benjamin Ross

     @mekkaokereke @BenRossTransit @Alon

     A white man recently told me how he thought I feel. This feels the same.

     You don't know me.

     But you talk a lot like men do when they want to roll over the mildest of a woman's opinions.

     Very misogynistic of you.
     Try not to attack supporters.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:14:01 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Benjamin Ross
     • Defarge

     @Defarge @BenRossTransit @Alon

     You are not my supporter. Stop calling yourself that.

     I've said this before, but I'll say it again: I don't need to be concerned about nazis. Instead, I've learned I need to be much more concerned about the white people I have around me when nazis show up. Because some of you are fake allies that use your marginalized identities against Black folk. You make excuses for racists and fascists, and forgive them on our behalf. Especially racist women. No.

     Begone!

   • Embed this notice
     Defarge (defarge@social.linux.pizza)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:14:02 JST Defarge

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Benjamin Ross

     @mekkaokereke @BenRossTransit @Alon

     You're all assumptions, man.
     You're winding yourself up in the face of a supporter.

     I expect continued attacks. Oh there's another notification from you.

     YOU'RE ATTACKING A SUPPORTER.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:18:05 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

     Early in the campaign, I told people that if Biden lost trust with Black voters, enough would choose not to vote for him that he would lose the election. None of y'all believed me.🤷🏿♂️

     Then 20% of Black men who would have voted for Biden, decided to sit it out. Biden was destined to lose.

     Then Harris took over, and the 20% came Back. Harris was destined to win.

     Then the Harris campaign spent Sept. alienating those voters again. Some opted out again.🤦🏿♂️

   • Embed this notice
     Alon (alon@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:18:10 JST Alon

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @Colinvparker @mavu @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke There's a poll by YouGov on it that finds some people vote differently from their partners without telling them, but the net gender impact is low (1 man in 10, 1 woman in 8, for a net of 1 in 40). https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/01/women-voting-secret-choice/

   • Embed this notice
     Colin Parker (colinvparker@mathstodon.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:18:10 JST Colin Parker

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke Yeah so 1/10 is quite a bit higher than 3% and close to where I would have guessed the CW is. It’s a 2.5% effect, so even increasing it modestly to 3% is a net 1% swing and potentially important in a race this close.

   • Embed this notice
     Alon (alon@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:18:15 JST Alon

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw

     @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke This is an exit poll, so pollsters ask voters randomly and separately. (And, because people asked on Bluesky: the gap between married women and men in 2022 was the same three points - it's unmarried women who blueshifted. https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/general/us-house/0)

   • Embed this notice
     Alien software, human hardware (mavu@mastodon.social)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:18:15 JST Alien software, human hardware

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw

     @Alon @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke would you trust a random exit poll worker enough to tell them your. *secret by design* choice of vote, if there could be actual physical/monetary/social harm for you if it came out?
     I certainly wouldn't.

   • Embed this notice
     Colin Parker (colinvparker@mathstodon.xyz)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:18:15 JST Colin Parker

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @mavu @Alon @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke In support of this is a moderately higher response rate among married men, 30 vs 26% of respondents, when the population sizes are equal (yes there’s SSM but it’s less than 1% of the registered voter population and also it’s nearly balanced between men and women).

   • Embed this notice
     Mike McGraw (radaghaz@mastodon.online)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:18:16 JST Mike McGraw

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke
     Do pollsters simply ask couples whether they voted identically or similarly? Seems to me that many women might say “Of course we did” and keep her true actions to herself.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:20:59 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

     This election is a repeated exercise in Dems believing that Black men voters are guaranteed, when they very much are not.

     Every campaign action is viewed only from a "Could this win us some white swing voters?" When instead of should also be viewed from a "Will this lose us Black voters in key states?"

     I've already said, Georgia hangs in the balance of about 10K Black men voters that have not voted yet, and may or may not decide to vote by Nov 5th.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:29:28 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Sharon Machlis

     @smach @Alon

     There absolutely are women who vote a certain way because they are coerced by their husbands. This happens. 1 in 8 women say they have secretly voted differently than their husbands. 1 in 10 men say they have too.

     DV happens. Men are more likely to be abusers than women. I am not saying that DV doesn't happen.

     I'm saying that this disproportionate focus on GOP women voters is an attempt to minimize the number of white women that are full participants in bigotry and hate.

   • Embed this notice
     Sharon Machlis (smach@masto.machlis.com)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:29:38 JST Sharon Machlis

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke Arguing “women didn’t tell exit pollsters they voted differently than their husbands” to push back on “some women would be uncomfortable if their husbands knew their real votes” is pretty odd. Such women are unlikely to tell a stranger in public outside a polling place what they wouldn’t tell their husbands!
     Would you use an exit poll to see how many women are in abusive relationships as they walked out of a polling place with their partners?

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:43:33 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware
     • Sharon Machlis

     @smach @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

     The national numbers among college educated white women are good, in large part because of turnout, not swing. Ie, getting Taylor Swift to tell her base to make sure that they vote, and that she endorses Kamala Harris, makes more white women Dem voters likely to vote, and most importantly *does not dissuade Black men from voting*.

     In the most important states (WI, MI, PA MN) white women already vote more for non-fash than fash.👍🏿

     1/N

   • Embed this notice
     Sharon Machlis (smach@masto.machlis.com)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:43:35 JST Sharon Machlis

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @mekkaokereke @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz If Harris has truly increased her support among college-educated white women nationally to +23 from Biden's +9, as ABC Ipsos says, that's a lot of voters. An estimated 29% of all Biden voters were college whites, meaning at least 15% college WW. I don't know how that will play out in GA, of course, but this appears to be a cycle for unusual voting patterns.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Saturday, 02-Nov-2024 23:52:36 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware
     • Sharon Machlis

     @smach @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

     In Georgia and North Carolina, the polls have not moved as much. And nationally, the college educated white women swings have been offset by the non-college educated white women swings in the other direction. Nationally, it's still a toss up if white women as a group will vote for Harris or Trump. Trump is currently up ~3% with white women.

     Most of these women have agency in their choices. They know exactly who Trump is, and they choose him.

     2/2

     Rich Felker repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:01:30 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Sharon Machlis

     @smach @Alon

     (Off-topic, but I *do* think that the majority of women are abused, or at least have been abused at some point.

     Majority meaning > 50%.

     I've seen a friend ask a group of women if they've ever been abused, and heard most answer no. Then my friend defined the terms "financial abuse," "verbal abuse," "emotional abuse," and "coercion," and then asked "Has any of this ever happened to you?" And almost all said yes).

   • Embed this notice
     Sharon Machlis (smach@masto.machlis.com)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:01:42 JST Sharon Machlis

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @mekkaokereke @Alon Many public women's restrooms have flyers about domestic abuse also. No one thinks that a majority of women are being abused.

   • Embed this notice
     Sharon Machlis (smach@masto.machlis.com)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:01:44 JST Sharon Machlis

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @mekkaokereke @Alon I doubt many women *who are afraid* are showing up in that 1 out of 8 statistic. Of course they're still not a majority! But the guerilla campaigns to get women who want to vote differently from their husbands but are afraid are not focused on the majority of WW who want to vote GOP of their own accord. They are unlikely to be persuadable at this point. It's focused on the potentially persuadable.

   • Embed this notice
     Sharon Machlis (smach@masto.machlis.com)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 00:02:19 JST Sharon Machlis

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @mekkaokereke @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz Absolutely, I’m not arguing that point. But if the attention on a minority of white women who don't feel like they control their own votes, helps a few women feel like they can vote how they want when they didn’t before, I’m all for it. That's not meant to pretend most women aren’t making their own choices.

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     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 01:11:11 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Mike McGraw
     • Colin Parker
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

     I've shared on here before that the "Young Black men are voting more for Trump! They're moving to the right!" is a lie told with data. In fact, the opposite is true. They're moving further to the left, and were sick of Biden.

     Take a look at the math on the below post. What looked like Black men moving to the right, was in reality Black men and women both moving further left, but disagreeing on tactics.

     https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/113351037260387408

   • Embed this notice
     Colin Parker (colinvparker@mathstodon.xyz)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 01:11:12 JST Colin Parker

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:
     • Mike McGraw
     • Alien software, human hardware

     @mekkaokereke @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz I don't know that I hear that among the Dems I listen to, because I do hear a lot of worry about the outcome, including turnout and R-voting by Black men (esp. younger). I also think it's fundamentally difficult to maintain the sort of 80-95% margins that Dems traditionally have had with Black men. That's especially true as the Dem base moves away from the non-college and lower-income demographics among non-Black voters. I don't know that there's a silver bullet that will bring back Black men.

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     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:04:25 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Cat Hicks

     @grimalkina @Alon

     The Harris campaign is *really* well run. I honestly think that it is the best run campaign in US presidential history.

     Harris has had to clean up clumsy words dropped by Biden and Obama that drove away Black men voters.

     https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/113309611321284023

     There's a reason that the Harris campaign distanced itself from this ad, and even the stickers, and is vocal about the need to earn the votes of Black men.

   • Embed this notice
     Cat Hicks (grimalkina@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:04:26 JST Cat Hicks

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke it's very clear gender is a predictor *within groups* for this election, and that's very striking. Everyone votes like their household, that doesn't mean every household is motivated to vote while they imagine *other* households. This ad is for sure an identity play but I don't think it's making the play you seem to think it is.

   • Embed this notice
     Cat Hicks (grimalkina@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:04:26 JST Cat Hicks

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke whether or not it's executed well, people's beliefs about why they're voting matter and it would be really silly for this political party to not make a play on this when there's a gender split that's observable within groups here

   • Embed this notice
     Cat Hicks (grimalkina@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:04:27 JST Cat Hicks

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke this argument isn't at all persuasive to me because the effect of a voter narrative like this isn't just for the specific character in the ad! It's about foregrounding a shared fate narrative that might motivate people (including those unmarried women) to feel that their actions will align with their values and are possible. It's strategy *not* because someone is imagining a large effect only from this subgroup but because the shared fate message could matter to many

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:09:52 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Cat Hicks

     @grimalkina @Alon

     The Harris campaign is limited in what it can say. Not being able to state clearly that white women do about half of the racism in the US, and that more than half of all white women vote for Trump, and that most have full agency, makes it impossible for them to then say "some women vote for Trump only because they're forced to by their partners!" without sounding like they're minimizing the accountability of white women voters. So they don't say it.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:42:16 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Cat Hicks

     @grimalkina @Alon

     Something I realized just this year, most white people don't know how often Black people experience racist outbursts from white women.🤷🏿♂️

     https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b5k8bkWYyPQ

     https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nw-QQokdIzg

     https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lz3q0baxHpc

     https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yXNKOEd-lgI

     https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tf7C6sTqTGk

     https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1VNikzrSdms

     Trying to paint these people as victims without agency, decreases Black voter turnout. It makes us not trust you. I don't trust people that think that almost all racism comes from white men.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:52:16 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Cat Hicks

     @grimalkina @Alon

     ♥️👍🏿
     I was making the point that the Harris campaign could have made this ad, and chose not to. Because they knew that this ad would be received negatively by Black men, and decrease Black turnout, which would net lose them votes.

     I was reacting to "it would be silly not to try."

     I think it's silly to try this particular angle, because it has such a high probability of backfiring with Black men, who are already a precarious block, specifically because of stuff like this.

   • Embed this notice
     Cat Hicks (grimalkina@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 03:52:17 JST Cat Hicks

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @mekkaokereke @Alon I don't disagree with any of this? I'm not totally sure of the connection between your replies and mine. My thought was just a general reflection that this campaign has made a lot of shared fate narratives pretty successfully and that sometimes persuasion operates in the context of foregrounding that. Of course I totally agree with you that white women are responsible for their actions & are a source of racism. I wasn't aiming to claim this ad was great or something.

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 08:39:21 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Aaron Priven

     @aaronpriven @Alon
     That may be because you fail to see or consider the impact that this strategy might have on Black men voters.

     I'm almost certain that you didn't see how Dem strategy would lead to ~20% of the Black men that supported Biden deciding that they would never vote for him again. I did, and called it well in advance.

     I'm also almost certain that you didn't see how Harris entering the race and having a different strategy would win almost all of that 20% back. I did. Called it.

     1/N

   • Embed this notice
     Aaron Priven (aaronpriven@sfba.social)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 08:39:22 JST Aaron Priven

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke I fail to see how it could be a bad thing to sow discord and mistrust within the marriages of Trump supporters

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Sunday, 03-Nov-2024 08:45:46 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Aaron Priven

     @aaronpriven

     I can't explain it any better than this. If you read this and can't see why the "free Eva Braun!" would have been offensive to her victims, I don't know what to say.

     https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/113413382476928906

     But this isn't a convince thing. I have no desire to convince people that I'm right. I just say what I say and collect my receipts later. And what I'm saying is:
     If Dems keep pandering to the people that heap abuse and hate on Black men, then Harris will lose Georgia and North Carolina.

     2/2

   • Embed this notice
     Cat Hicks (grimalkina@mastodon.social)'s status on Monday, 04-Nov-2024 00:55:11 JST Cat Hicks

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @mekkaokereke @Alon I am sorry for my clumsy words, which I put badly, I meant that about the overall Democratic base and other Dems lack of campaigning over time/NOT the Harris campaign (one million percent agree this is the most incredible campaign!). I meant to express not so much that this ad worked but my frustration at how Dems might consider still reaching & organizing e.g. those young people mentioned above. Obviously did not express it well. Appreciate your insights and patience deeply!

   • Embed this notice
     mekka okereke :verified: (mekkaokereke@hachyderm.io)'s status on Monday, 04-Nov-2024 00:56:09 JST mekka okereke :verified:

     in reply to

     • Cat Hicks

     @grimalkina @Alon

     Ah I see! I'm sorry for not understanding your point.

   • Embed this notice
     Cidney (cidney@social.city-of-glass.net)'s status on Monday, 04-Nov-2024 07:19:40 JST Cidney

     in reply to

     • mekka okereke :verified:

     @Alon @mekkaokereke This is bullshit-- domestic violence victims are disproportionately disenfranchised by laws against voter fraud (in states that require ID/proof of address, for instance, fleeing an abuser means you can't vote until you can afford a new driver's license). it's a big deal.