Past performance isn't predictive of future performance, as the mutual fund disclaimer goes.
There's no way to know what the impact of Dobbs will be, especially as stories of maternal death & injury multiply and spread.
I doubt the amount of split voting will explode, but I really doubt it won't increase in a statistically significant way. I'm also skeptical exit polls can obtain an accurate picture.
I've seen the husband blocking move so many times knocking doors.