Notices by Colin Parker (colinvparker@mathstodon.xyz)

@mekkaokereke @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz I don't know that I hear that among the Dems I listen to, because I do hear a lot of worry about the outcome, including turnout and R-voting by Black men (esp. younger). I also think it's fundamentally difficult to maintain the sort of 80-95% margins that Dems traditionally have had with Black men. That's especially true as the Dem base moves away from the non-college and lower-income demographics among non-Black voters. I don't know that there's a silver bullet that will bring back Black men.

@mavu @Alon @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke In support of this is a moderately higher response rate among married men, 30 vs 26% of respondents, when the population sizes are equal (yes there’s SSM but it’s less than 1% of the registered voter population and also it’s nearly balanced between men and women).

@Alon @mavu @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke Yeah so 1/10 is quite a bit higher than 3% and close to where I would have guessed the CW is. It’s a 2.5% effect, so even increasing it modestly to 3% is a net 1% swing and potentially important in a race this close.

@kaia @kkarhan I didn't believe it at first, but it's real: https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=19/34.07966/-118.41164

@Brad_Rosenheim @alliecat So, it could also be that this is some carryover from earlier more strict laws and Amtrak just didn't update it's rules since 2011. I can't even find a blue law or dry county that's plausibly in the path of the train.