If you have some estimate of likely results (in the form of a probability distribution over vote counts -- likely you'd assume an uncorrelated multivariate Gaussian or something similar), then it's fair to say that you can estimate the direct effect of your vote: compute the probability (as a function of what vote you cast) that your vote will be the deciding one, and pick the vote where you like that distribution the most.
In places that have a threshold this usually means voting for a party that has a significant chance of being above the threshold, sadly. Apart from this it often doesn't align with voting for larger parties (nor even, in FPTP, parties that are very likely to get at least one seat in your constituency: voting for a party that's expected to be just below 1 seat is better than for a part that's expected to be above 1 and well below 2, if you like both equally).
Yup, and there's no good way to handle "everyone is taking into account how the system works", because if there were, the resulting system would break the Arrow's impossibility theorem.
A colleague of mine btw did write up a computation of that kind for most recent parliamentary elections in Poland, but the point there was mostly to compare voting in different constituencies (you may vote in any constituency in those elections, as long as you actually arrange for that slightly ahead of time and appear in a voting location in that constituency).
Do you know of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flexitarianism? I feel that the wiki article fails to describe a variant where the choice depends mostly on cost/level of incovenience caused by not relying on animals. That is an approach that I mostly have, my threshold of inconvenience above which I ignore is pretty low, and yet I eat mostly vegan due to the power of defaults.
The reason I mention this is that I imagine a person with a similar approach to mine, but slightly better organized and with a slightly higher threshold would eat basically only vegan food[1], but their approach to abortion would be basically unaffected.
[1] I specifically mention only food, because the levels of inconvenience caused by e.g. having to find an alternative to leather hiking boots or woolen shirts are very person-dependent.
I think you are right on limited consequences of a fire. I would expect though that an ignition source should be pretty easy to find in a car accident: the exhaust systems of all involved cars are likely got enough.
Then Japan didn't really acquire the writing system from China. The grammar is iiuc very different, and at some points in history characters were imported for the pronunciation, ignoring their meaning.
I think this isn't true without some additional qualification? After all, all petty crime, vandalism, littering, aimless churlishness etc. is against social norms. I think I get what you mean though, but am also missing a term for that kind of social norm contravening.
My vague recollection is that there was oneish root of ideograms, but the languages evolved before writing in an unrelated way. I don't know how much adoption of writing affected the languages.
@freemo Roots of the language and of the writing system are not necessarily the same. There were multiple instances of significant import of "characters" from ~Chinese into Japanese and I had the impression that at least some of them didn't import much past the characters themselves.
@freemo Ah, then it's quite likely that it was indeed before then. I'll then notify you again if it reoccurs, and otherwise will assume this was a result of the issue at that time.
Also, my own post does not appear in my home timeline (or rather, appears but then disappears upon refresh). That suggests something is still broken, and that we're not dealing just with an aftereffect of something.
I enjoy things around information theory (and data compression), complexity theory (and cryptography), read hard scifi, currently work in infosec, am somewhat literal minded and have approximate knowledge of random things. I like when statements have truth values, and when things can be described simply (which is not exactly the same as shortly) and yet have interesting properties.I live in the largest city of Switzerland (and yet have cow and sheep pastures and a swimmable lake within a few hundred meters of my place :)). I speak Polish, English, German, and can understand simple Swiss German and French.If in doubt, please err on the side of being direct with me. I very much appreciate when people tell me that I'm being inaccurate. I think that satisfying people's curiosity is the most important thing I could be doing (and usually enjoy doing it). I am normally terse in my writing and would appreciate requests to verbosify.I appreciate it if my grammar or style is corrected