Notices by Anders Puck Nielsen (anderspuck@krigskunst.social)

The West has to take #Ukraine's demands for security guarantees more seriously if we want the war to end — especially if we want to avoid nuclear proliferation. That is my topic in this video, where I also explain the victory plan which has been widely misunderstood in the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTiunvocl5c

In this video I discuss the abundance of news stories about how things are tough in either #Ukraine or #Russia, and how the war is unsustainable. It's as if the journalists have forgotten that things are supposed to be tough in a war of attrition and that you will get a distorted picture of the war if you focus on one side without comparing it to the other.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KebjX3KEgWQ

In this video I discuss the failure of the academic community to get the predictions right about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Most experts said that Russia wouldn't invade at all, and those who did foresee an invasion often predicted a quick Russian victory. So what went wrong, and how could we have done better to understand what Russia was up to?
#Russia #Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T2MYXljL5o

Morbidly, her death was a birthday present for Vladimir Putin. So I guess it's his birthday today.
https://mstdn.social/@CarveHerName/113265125076292113

Sorry for spamming everyone today about hour-long interviews with me, but here is another one. I am on Silicon Curtain for a talk about Russia's war economy, the strategic purpose of the Kursk incursion, and other related things.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3DU3edpHKgY

Western security guarantees for Ukraine are not just about security for the Ukrainians. In a time of American withdrawal, Europe needs Ukraine on our side to balance Russia. That is one of my points in this interview by Anna Danylchuk.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RzfeUfeXWfw&si=GOUlqCHrMSv_0Lon

The Russian war economy is not doing great, and they will run into serious bottlenecks within the next year. It is therefore time to let go of the idea that Russia has endless resources to continue the war.
That is my topic in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7sbS92R4cg

@darnell @randahl @denspier @EUCommission @threads Meta hasn't turned on any fediverse integration for EU users yet, but it is not EU legislation that is holding them back in the rest of the world.

@denspier @randahl @darnell @EUCommission I think this thread has run off on a tangent. Of course Meta is allowed to make an app that uses ActivityPub if they are open about it when people sign up for the service. The DMA is about ensuring openness and breaking monopolies – not about forcing gatekeeper companies to keep creating walled gardens.

@darnell @randahl @EUCommission I don’t understand your argument. When Threads launched last year, they had zero users. There was literally no one whose privacy they needed to protect.

@darnell @randahl I don’t quite follow. Threads was a brand new app with no prior users. Surely Meta is allowed to make a client for the fediverse if they want to.

@randahl @potus It’s a ridiculous implementation of activity pub that means only a very small percentage of Threads users will be discoverable in the fediverse.

There is a lot of talk about a Russian counteroffensive in Kursk. It’s worth remembering that right now it is actually in Zelensky’s interest to make it sound like a big deal, because that will validate his claim that the Kursk offensive is working to divert Russian resources from elsewhere.

@profdc9 @randahl I have a video about that, which I recommend you watch.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=v4mZPc_kkys&si=b1nbnQSOA0tyTCUo

@profdc9 @randahl Russia is nowhere near to using tactical nuclear weapons in Kursk. They are downplaying the situation and referring to it as a terrorist attack. They are doing everything to portray the event as absolutely not a problem for the state, and there is no way that Putin could use nuclear weapons in a situation where allegedly there is no problem.

@failedLyndonLaRouchite @RobertDaleParker My experience is that it is much the same on Bluesky as on Mastodon. Many people have an account, but most of them haven’t published anything in the last six months.

This is a good explanation of why Russia faces a personnel shortage despite having a much bigger population than Ukraine.
#Russia #Ukraine
https://youtu.be/Rk3fm0V98Pc?si=n_dhZ8qVvh2pR1fb

@VikingChieftain @kimwulff I think Russia has had tactical success with aviation on the frontlines but the ranged campaign has been a fiasco because it has been based on wrong assumptions about what will work and how they can win the war.

@kimwulff I am not sure I understand what you mean. You think the Russian air campaign will be decisive, so it doesn't matter if their ground campaign is stalling?
@VikingChieftain

@kimwulff I think so too but I don’t think the Russian air campaign is particularly successful. It’s been going on for two years now and Ukraine still gains new capabilities.