Laffy
🤦♀️ Trump's gullibles must be footing the bills here.
' #Trump is suing a former MI6 officer & intel consultancy he founded, high court records in Eng show.
TFG, who is mired in lawsuits in his own country, is bringing a data protection claim against Orbis Business Intelligence & founder Christopher Steele, who previously ran the secret intel service’s Russia desk.
A 2-day hearing for the legal action is set to start on 16 Oct" #legal
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(1/2)
I just had an idea...
#TFG is fast approaching 80.
A court case is a strain on any person. Even worse, if it is a criminal offense. Having rather simultanous proceedings in various jurisdiction would be an extraordinary strain even for a young man.
For someone, who has shown the loss of reality in public time and again, it definitely is not beneficial fo his health, migth even lead to him being incapacitated running for office.
What happens, if he is the elected GQP...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(2/2)
...candidate but is not fit to run for office just shortly before the ballots ar e cast.
Can the GQP still substitute him with the second runner up in the primaries, say #RonDeathSentence at this point in time?
//
Laffy
@HistoPol Why even do this kind of speculation? I don't engage in it.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
Because IMHO it becomes more likely by the week.
The indicments keep piling up. And at some point, anyone breaks.
I am quite positive, for instance, that the NY ruling was a huge mental blow to #TFG, more than he has shown.
One thing that would probably not happen in this "incapacitated" scenario is riots in the street. Nobody can be faulted for his health/age.
Also, why engage in it? Well, if it works, it might make sense for some politically interested prosecutors to speed up..
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(2/2)
...bringing on more cases. Each one would help in such a strategy.
I wouldn't even claim thinking-out-of-the box. It is almos self-evident that such a strategy has a high likelyhood of working.
(Oh, and anyone who has followed Rachel Maddow's #Ultra pod series knows there has always been political meddling in such high-profile cases. Only this time, it might actuall do some good.)
#TFG must never hold any office ever again--by any legal means.
//
Laffy
@HistoPol Sorry, I just can't do speculation. When people do it about Biden, it drives me nuts.
We have zero idea whether or not there'd be riots, whether he can withstand the pressure, whether he thrives on it. We don't know.
So, for me at least, trying to anticipate is a waste of time. Not my thing.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
I can understand that point of view and I respect that.
I come from a world where in uncertain and tumultous times such as these, scenario planning is extremely valuable.
As a little side note:
(The former) Royal Dutch #Shell Group came out ahead of the 1970's oil crisis by widely employing scenario planning techniques.
Anyway. Case closed.
Laffy
@HistoPol 👍🏻
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
Hi Philip,
you bring up some interesting aspecst, alas, I am not sure I understand this sentence correctly:
"My understanding is if it is after the ballots go out they're sol and will need a write-in campaign"
"sol"?
I am also quite suprised, tha you are "confident" that #TFG will not be the nominee.
I would like to suggest one point for "and more:" The more indictment and convictions he collects, the more untenable he will become for the people supporting him with...
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol My understanding is if it is after the ballots go out they're sol and will need a write-in campaign. Until then I think it's up to the party. I am confident Trump won't be the nominee for the reasons you mention and more. But I'm not positive, obviously. But I think he folds (or is kicked out) before Super Tuesday. BUT, the Democrats can kick out candidates with Super Delegates (its why they have them) but the GOP cannot because they didn't craft that rule. At least as I understand it
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(2/3)
...big checks. It has happened before w/ some defecting to #RDS, for instance. I think, there will come a tipping point, and we all know, he is overextended, once the Super-PACs etc. withdraw the money, this will become similar to a bank run.
Maybe his final mental and monetary breakdown will coincide (quite likely.)
And yes, March 5th is an awfully long time for prosecutors to continue to...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(3/3)
...come at him. This is PRECISELY what they should do, the more, the merrier, so to speak.
The judicial system failed almost utterly againt #AmericaFirst in the 1940s. It has to make good for this this time round.
No-one is above the law, in particular not the most detrimental foreign assets in history, #TFG.
Sarcastically speaking, the question that could maybe much more easily answered: to which autocratic nation did TFG NOT sell out US interests?
//
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol
He's falling apart mentally (and publicly). Said Biden WILL start World War II and that he beat OBAMA in 2016 this week.
He's one Big Mac Attack away from a permanent vacation
The NY Fraud case is too early to tell how much it will hurt him but it will hurt, potentially catastrophically.
The cases will start going to trial by Super Tuesday. Whenever GA happens it'll be on TV and people will watch and see him unfiltered by Fox. It will not go well for him.
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol shit outta luck, LOL.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
@philip_cardella
(1/2)
Funny you should say so.
As you are studying history, you might know the historic novel of James Clavel, #TaiPan.
In Hong Kong, a business tycoon was (is?) called a #TaiPan.
And there, they believe a lot in luck. They call it "joss." As you mentioned it, yes, #TFG has had an extradinary streak of luck for decades.
Stochastics show, that these streaks will run out some time.
And yes, I think a colapse (maybe not the final one) is imminent. For one thing, I don't think..
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(2/n)
...he has completely processed the implications of the #CorporateDeathSentence for his #NY business empire. From all that I have read, that is really "him."
For him, this--once carried out--this will be like the worst sentence of the Ancient Egyptians against former pharaos: the scrubbing of their names from official documents and building, as it happened e.g. to Hatshepsut and Akhenaten (#DamnatioMemoriae.)
I am beginning to love this...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(3/3)
...verdict. It is so fitting for #TFG, maybe even better throwing him from the #TarpeianRock, as I have been calling for (i.e. death sentence for high treason, as he can still be president in prison.)
So, if this is true, the remaining question is, how long will it take for his brain to process that all is lost?
Days? Weeks? Most probably not months.
So the highest likelyhood for his meltdown is October/November 2023.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
//
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
You bring up an interesting point. I have been discussing this issue for about a year now, first on the DeadBirdSite, then here.
In a nutshell: #AmericaFirst never was punished nor disbanded. They lost in the polls. People forgot. In 1971, Big Busines joined the bandwaggon with their strategy paper. #Reagonomics carried out the strategy agains the "left", i.e. students that increasingly voted Dem.
Around the turn of the century (I used to know all the details, but all lost..
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol it's all very unsettling. The GOP has flirted for 50 years with illiberal ideas and finally started implementing them under Reagan. They've spent decades allowing increasingly illiberal forces run the party. There are so many places the GOP could have stopped this (Gingrich was a major turning point for the worse) but they didn't because their laisse faire horse shit doesn't work for most people so they couldn't win that way.
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol it'll be interesting to see what happens. I am a grad student studying history and I'm presently taking a class (just a class, I'm not an expert) on fascism. He is absolutely a fascist in my mind as are SOME of his followers. The thing about fascists is their drive to "win" is inherently suicidal. They destroy until they turn on themselves. Fascist leaders tend to ask their followers to likewise destroy everything and then themselves when they lose...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(2/n)
...on the DeadBirdSite, the Conservatives, in particular the Federalist Society, put their plan in motion to capture #SCOTUS. And to fulfill what they set out to do in 1971: turn the US in a plutocracy. This happened with #CitizensUnitedVsFEC, and others. The climax was #TFG in the WH. He was never supposed to lose in 2020. He probably wouldn't, hadn't it been for the #pandemic
Anyway, out of curiosity, have you watched the #Ultra series by #rachelmaddow?...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(3/3)
...The reason I'm asking is that her primary source, a US history prof, tells her, that even many of her colleagues didn't know about this huge crisis of the US political system and the fascist take-over attempt.
I wonder if it finally has become mainstream (student) knowledge again, b/c it was front-page news in the 1940s.
//
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol but the Democrats were too wedded to playing nice and their own classical liberal (or neoliberal) obsession with capitalism to reign the GOP in. After Citizens United there was much less they COULD do because now they NEEDED the oligarchs and corporations to give them SOMETHING. But the oligarchs and capitalists only care about growing wealth by any means and actually hate the freedoms implied in a liberal order. The dems cut a deal with the devil. and here we are.
TC Won't Give In To Lies
@HistoPol @philip_cardella
Trump is mentally unable to accept all is lost.
We know his response to challenge is to double down and bulldoze until the challenger gives up (or someone steps in to bail him out). Now that he's tasted the worldwide attention of the presidency, there is no going back to a TV show and McDonalds ads.
Doesn't matter if he has a meltdown, he'll still push chaos on every front to keep the spotlight. And politics is where he can created the most chaos.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(1/n)
A lot of points and I do not disagree. #RonDeathSentence is clearly a fascist. I would not be able to say which trait he hasn't already showed (apart from mass killings.) He's already deporting people, though.
Global warming is the key, but too huge here.
I've discussed it many times.
Bottom line: NOTHING will stop global warming anymore.
The amount of anthropogenic CO2 that is in the atmosphere right now is sufficient that there will be NO (periodically occurring)...
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol Which isn't to say its the Dems fault. It's not really. But here we are in a tipping point in history. Trump isn't the only fascist (but most in the GOP are NOT fascist, yet). So will it end with him? Will his followers try to burn it all down if he loses? What happens when he's gone? And we badly need a party that is committed to something other than "THE ECONOMY," because that lot isn't going to stop global warming.
TC Won't Give In To Lies
@philip_cardella @HistoPol
Wow! What a concise summary of 40+ years of American political dysfunction. Great work!
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
Agreed on all counts.
But I did say "first meltdown" for a reason. Maybe not this one, but another one will take him over the brink. No-one can accept such punches on a continous basis. They all fold eventually.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(2/n)
...#IceAges--hold your breath--for the next FIFTY THOUSAND YEARS and if we continue more or less like today NEVER AGAIN until earth is destroyed.
I forgot his name, but there was one climate researcher who had a hearing in Congress in the 1980's or 1990's. He correctly predicted what is happening now. He just published (a then still no peer reviewed) new paper arguing that the #ClimateCrisis is...
TC Won't Give In To Lies
@HistoPol @philip_cardella
Maybe, but I think there is no mental breakdown that will stop him. Only physical impairment or imprisonment.
But I did hear one solution I liked. Build a duplicate Oval Office and tell him he's POTUS again. Then just leave him to drink Cokes and sign things.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(3/n)
...ACCELERATING. Also, there are 9 #TippingPoints that will cause non-linear growth when reached.
Huge regions of earth will become uninhabitable , e.g. the northern part of South America and Africa. B/w 300 mn and 2 bn climate refugees will be on the move. There simply is no way that civilization will break down if that happens.
What would need to be done is #nationalization of al oil and gas companies, using proceeds to prepare for the decades of draught ahead....
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(4/n)
...It has happened time and again before on a much smaller scale. Most noticeably so in the 12th century BCE in the mediterranean when a 150 year #Megadrought caused the invasion of the #SeaPeople, e.g. in #AncientEgypt, causing the #BronzeAgeCollapse*.
Only that the global population was a little over a 100 mn people and not 8,100 mn people.**
It is really simple we need to stop burning fossil fules to reduce...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(5/5)
...the time, the aforementioned regions (and more) will become uninhabitable for FUTURE generations.
I know, there are some famous climatologists running around that we can still achieve the +1.5°C target. No, no we don't. And even so, this means e.g. +6°C for some European regions, for instance.
(I have threads and links of all this in my TL.)
//
**https://www.statista.com/statistics/1006502/global-population-ten-thousand-bc-to-2050/
Philip Cardella
@HistoPol i haven't seen the Maddow program. I think current scholarship in history is starting to really look at the Reagan years and the success of the movement conservatives and there kin in the Federalist society.
But I feel like there's more scholarship coming out more often on it but does that mean it's common knowledge for US political historians? I don't know if I can answer that.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(1/2)
I have not idea about your curriculum. But I will make a bet with you: the well-researched podcast will tell you more about fascism in the US then anything in the present curriculum.
US history has been whitewashed to an outrageous degree.
Here is a link to one of my many posts.
BTW,despite a year-long discussion now on the DeadBirdSite and here, I have NEVER seen anyone able to disprove the research.
...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(2/n)
...Also, if you look for the book of the trial mentioned, you will find it on archive.org.
Also, I strongly recommend The US and The Holocaust*, a PBS documentary. You will see several of the same US Nazi pundits as in Ultra, the perspective is much more on the Jews plight, though, then on the ongoing constitutional crisis.´...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
(3/3)
...and lastly, regarding #Reagonomics and what I mentioned in my "in a nutshell", here is my thread on #Reagonomics and higher #education:
//
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
I know people who are mentally incacitated. It "works." We will see. In this case, I hope, I'm right b/c I also think, if he is elected or not, there will otherwise be massive riots.
A fake Oval Office for a fake President? - LMAO, I love it.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
@philip_cardella @TCatInReality
Yes and yes. 100%
This was when I joined #Resist.
(We really need to gather the forces again here for the next elections. It worked reasonable well for the #Midterms.)
Philip Cardella
@TCatInReality @HistoPol I think he might just not even be able to get to the podium soon. It's speculation, of course. But there's just so much going against him right now. And the GOP electeds and powers generally hate him. They always hated him. But they REALLY hate him now. I think it's a matter of time.
But I thought it was a joke in 2015 when he announced. By October 2016 I was scared he could win.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
No disagreement.
This is why I said incapacitated. He just needs to be pushed hard enough. And many huge trials can do that to a man.
However, we will see it all unfold and maybe even enjoy some popcorn in the next 8 weeks or so.
TC Won't Give In To Lies
@philip_cardella @HistoPol
Trump thrives on adversity (because it externalises his internal demons). He will not stop.
The GOP and their donors hated him in 2015/16, but gladly jumped onboard when he had momentum and media attention. They will again. Do NOT think they will ever turn on him (didn't after Access Hollywood or either impeachment).
The entire GOP must be beat electorally...by a lot. Spend your time trying to influence independents and disgruntled GOP.
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