Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
we can't say europe is to blame for russia invading ukraine. or britain for usa genociding native americans. or usa for iran killing women. etc
history is not empty cause and effect. there is blame for every actor for *their* choices
example:
if you walk by and scuff my shoe i can
ignore it
yell obscenities
say "no problem"
shoot you in the face
etc
how i act is my fault alone
i can't say it's your fault because you were in the cause and effect chain
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@bjeelka @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
there's no need for any country to physically control previous russian territory
just support and create breakaway sections, carve it up, and install friendly govts. the common russian hews to that local strongman. no need for ukrainian troops to be shot at
you might notice my sly inference that this is what russia does to other countries, now
and could be russia's own ironic fate
Eva Chaos
@benroyce @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
The problem with that is they will work for whoever is offering the most money. They can be bought for sure, but then someone can offer them a better deal.
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@bjeelka @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
a question:
do you remember when prigozhin showed up in rostov-on-don?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWD2VKba9Qg
he was hailed with devotion and love
not because russians love him
but because supplicating yourself to the current strong man is what they know as a survival mechanism
could ukraine could have its own puppet states out to volga, ruled by a russian to satisfy russian racism, while the real levers of control are in kyiv?
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@bjeelka @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
something like 1917 might be possible
countries rush in, like the insane odyssey of the czechoslovak legions, under the cover of "securing nukes" and "restoring order", genuine or a ruse
finland to karelia, turkey to circassia, japan to sakhalin, usa to kamchatka, china to sakha, ukraine all the way to the volga, etc
some secure puppet govts, like sakha. others absorb, like sakhalin
some call it temporary
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
I doubt someone will go into that shitstorm willingly, especially Ukraine - holding a giant chunk of land (with population blaming you for everything) occupied with half or own economy destroyed, and probably all sorts of political problems at home - seems unrealisticly hard, but may be necessary, depends on all sorts of variables. China - yes, probably. I'm sure there is already a detailed plan somewhere in Xi's office.
Бджілка робе кусь 🇺🇦🇮🇱🏳️🌈
@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Will oppressed peoples of russian empire (including muscovites themselves) find some kind of relatively peaceful resolution, either federation (but real one, not imitated), confederation, or complete breakup, will almost totally destroyed nations like Buryats or Khanty survive - no idea. All we can do is to ensure the death of the empire as fast as possible and try to minimize negative consequences as we can.
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@bjeelka @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
no! listen to a dumb american lecture a ukrainian on how to deal with russia!
(/s)
let me ask you:
i view russia as the last holdover from the colonial era. russia isn't a country, it's a colonial empire from 1824 in 2024
do you think dissolution would be the final stake in the heart of russian imperial monster?
not even on the terms of internal dissolution but like: china take sakha republic, something like that
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Who knows. Anyone who says he has a final answer what will happen to russia after putin is either prophet, or not intellectually honest. What I'm expecting - there will be a mess, a disaster - all various dormant nests of evil, patched by putin with dog shit and scotch tape will suddenly blast open. How bloody that will be - depends on the russians.
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Can they be temporary allies until war is over? Sure. But the SECOND putin dies and the question of decolonization is raised - the most saint liberals will unite with vatniks and bring him from his grave like that. They will fight fiercely for their colonialism. I don't doubt that for a second, I know these people.
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Will they do it? No. No chance. No matter how liberal, heroic and compassionate to "little brothers Ukrainians" they are - they actively refuse to even think about it for a second. Because they can feel their core identity as russians are under threat. There were attempts to "rebrand" russia - literally wipe all that blood from their flag. They've failed too.
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Their whole national mythos is built around that pseudohistorical continuity, the exclusive heritage of ancient Kyiv, it's inherently imperialistic from the start. And unless they reevaluate who they are and what russia is - reinvent their whole national identity from scratch - they will be trapped into this cycle of failed conquests till the end.
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
British empire has shrunk to UK (not completely, as Irish know), colonial France has shrunk to modern day France, nazi Germany has failed, teared apart and forcefully turned into modern Germany. Russia is different. It doesn't have an imperial "core" nation, the point of normality to return to. The non-imperial russia wouldn't be russia, like Italy is not Rome.
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
The problem with russians is not where on heroism/cowardice scale they are, nor how efficient they are at fighting putin. The problem with russians is that they are... russians. They are patriots of russia. And russia CAN'T be non-imperial, especially in Ukrainian question - almost by definition - the very word "russia" already contains claim to ancient Rus.
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@benroyce @eva_chaos @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
See, that's what I'm talking about, we've got tangled in ethical dilemmas again - are all russians, or not all russians? Do we view Navalny's decision to return as heroism or stupidity? Probably both, who cares, it's not the point. How effective they are as allies? I would say pretty fucking useless so far, but maybe I don't understand something, again, it's not the point.
Eva Chaos
@benroyce @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
It doesn't have to be prejudice, just the understanding that it's a lost cause. They are a failing nation and have been for a long time. They lost their future when Stalin killed most of the smart people, and then there was the brain drain in the 90s. There's no one left to run the country. As such, they are a zombie empire trying to eat their neighbors to stay alive.
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@eva_chaos @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
well said and agreed
and russia has a lot of suffering ahead before russians finally wake the fuck up
but they will wake up
the trick is to prevent them from exporting their suffering in the meantime
Eva Chaos
@benroyce @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
They never woke up before, at least not in a meaningful way and not in a thousand years. Their woke movement was to bring communism to the world that killed so many millions globally we'll never know. Maybe 60 million in China alone. Their own body count can only be poorly extrapolated from how few of them there are today given their natural resources. They invented Nazism, that wasn't Hitler's idea.
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@eva_chaos @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
what flag is that in your profile?
i squint and i see philippines but that's not it
is it a eastern european flag?
i'm not going to hold it against eastern europeans for russophobia, because of history
but i'm not eastern european
russia will dissolve or revolt, someday, and when that day comes russians will need to be worked with. i'm aiming for that day
after we give ukraine everything they need to punish russia
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
i got blocked from a server for saying navalny was a hero for what he did in russia, but he's disliked in ukraine because he shared ethnofascist instincts towards ukraine
nuance is dead
that being said, i don't blame average russians for anything
even though there's millions of vatniks
simply because when change comes to russia, it will be russians doing it
future allies
why throw them out for the sake of blanket prejudice?
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@benroyce @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Don't get me wrong, russians are absolutely to blame, even the most liberal, for they differ from putin only in their methods, not in their goal. All russians, with extremely rare exceptions, still see Ukraine as ontologically and spiritually part of russia. But it's not why we're fighting them. It's not some kind of punishment or revenge. We're fighting to survive and to not become like them.
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@benroyce @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
On the other side I see how this abstract blame for abstract russians who abstractly fought abstract putin too little, not helps but REPLACES actual measures to stop actual putin from actually killing actual people. Yeah, we've said all russians are guilty, enough for today, let's buy more of that juicy russian oil.
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@benroyce @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
I see too many people justify the craziest abhorrent openly genocidal regimes because they purportedly fight some abstract american imperialism. Russia included. Actual imperial power who commits actual genocide right fucking now on the pretence that we used to be part of their empire being seen as some kind of freedom fighter against Evil West. Insanity is the only way to describe it.
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@benroyce @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
That's why I don't like this blame game, you'll never untangle the web of causes and effects. It's counterproductive.
We remember and acknowledge horrors of history not to blame someone, not to assign people score of privilege and argue who is the most white person in the room or something. But to stop this from happening again.
And unfortunately too often I see this discourse reducing to AmericaBad™, which makes it worse.
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
right
but that's like saying we blame the mother of a drunk, because the drunk killed a pedestrian
of course there's formative reasons for every crime, that are external to the actor that committed the crime
but that actor still shoulders full blame for that crime
so europe should have known russia never lost its imperialism. and europe should have changed its attitude by knowing that. but russia is still 100% to blame
Human after all
@benroyce @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal We can blame Europe for being soft on Russia for decades.
Eva Chaos
@bjeelka @benroyce @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
In American terms, what this means is that russia has narcissistic personality disorder on a national scale. They don't have a sense of self as a people that is grounded in reality and differentiated from others. A healthy sense of self can't be given, only discovered, and they can't do it because the self they think they were wasn't real.
NeonPurpleStar :heart_bi:
Eva Chaos
@benroyce @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Germany didn't kill most of its smart people and then drive out the survivors. They also didn't have massive social breakdown with drug abuse, alcoholism, and extreme poverty. Germany had something to work with.
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@eva_chaos @benroyce @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Most importantly, Germany in some shape of form already existed before the nazis. There were "normal" Germany, not perfect, but "normal". There never were "normal" russia. That's what I think is the biggest challenge - they will have to reinvent their state from scratch, and they don't even understand it as a problem. But this can change too. I see some positive hints as "national minorities" start to speak up.
Eva Chaos
@benroyce @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
Honestly, we tried that by doing business with them. We made Putin and the oligarchs the wealthiest people on the planet. When they snatched Crimea, we started rolling out the sanctions, really as a warning because they weren't particularly strong. They didn't take the warning. They're just going to be russian no matter what the hell we do and part of that identity is that everything is theirs.
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@eva_chaos @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
which is fine
as long as they are carved up into little pieces
and then we get to work on them on the order of decades
and change their nature
Eva Chaos
@benroyce @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
That's up to them really. I'm not putting any bets that they will do anything but continue to fuck it up.
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@eva_chaos @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
germany's heart used to be war mongering prussian military ethos
now look at germany
of course, it took a massive hit to change that
and i think that's what we're just beginning to do to russia
everything changes in this world. nothing is static
Ben Royce 🇺🇦
@eva_chaos @bjeelka @humanhorseshoes @mattdm @n_dimension @Gorfram @Mikal
in normal, nonwar environments, you are right
but considering the stakes in a late war/ postwar period, budanov can just assassinate such interference
and then, in the most idealistic scenario, ukraine can plot a course to slowly democratize the orcs in their new world of little states. which would take decades. but its what the world needs, and what ukraine needs to secure its future
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