Notices by :afire: palingenetic man :afire: (anonaccount@poa.st)

The most competitive Stupid Fucking Bitch Award since the R&B lesbian in Biden's trap house.

https://nitter.poast.org/disclosetv/status/2021665226324873674

Shanda fur da consumer, shanda fur da consumer:

How do you know i) a bubble is about to burst, or ii) an corporate fraud of epic proportions is about to unwind? Look no further than Enron or Lehman Brothers, where Jeff Skilling and Dick Fuld, respectively, launched an all out attack against the market in general, and shorts in particular as a last-ditch desperation move to distract from the imminent demise of their insolvent companies.

It may not be that dire just yet, but in a recent podcast alongside Brad Gerstner and Satya Nadella, OpenAI's Sam Altman, when asked by Gerstner, who is an OpenAI investor (that whole "non-profit" thing is long dead and buried for those who haven't been paying attention), how a company with $13BN in revenue can afford $1.4T in commitments. Altman’s reply? “If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer."

Actual translation: no answer. And while Sam didn't blame the market or the shorts - yet - he is starting to blame the longs for not having enough faith.

[from @wallstreetpro] "Brad Gerstner, an OpenAI investor, asks Sam Altman how a company with $13B in revenue can afford $1.4T in commitments. Altman’s reply? _“Happy to find a buyer for your shares.” Translation: No answer. Very concerning."_

He is not the only one: earlier today his #2 doubled down when she blamed - get this - the market for being too pessimistic and not having enough "exuberance."

In an onstage interview at the Wall Street Journal’s Tech Live conference in California on Wednesday, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar suggested the market is overly focused on anxiety about a possible bubble in the artificial intelligence sector and should muster more “exuberance” about the technology’s potential.

“I don’t think there’s enough exuberance about AI, when I think about the actual practical implications and what it can do for individuals,” Friar said “We should keep running at it.”

The practical implications being putting 150 million people out of work, but let's ignore that.

Of course, Friar doesn't actually care about the lack of exuberance: what she - and her boss - are much more concerned about is the epic circle-jerk vendor financing deals (see "The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"") that have served as the basis for much of the AI bubble rally, and somehow always have OpenAI in their centers, are finally being scrutinized.

As Bloomberg notes, there has been mounting scrutiny in recent months on soaring valuations for AI companies as well as the accelerating spending spree from tech firms on data centers and chips to support artificial intelligence development. OpenAI alone has committed to spending more than $1.4 trillion on AI infrastructure, even though the company remains unprofitable and has only $13BN in revenue, as noted above.

To support its AI data center buildout, OpenAI has made a series of increasingly more outlandish deals with firms like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices that have been criticized as circular financing arrangements. Nvidia, for example, agreed to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI to help fund its data center expansions. OpenAI, in turn, committed to filling those sites with millions of Nvidia chips. But in the interview, Friar said, “I kind of reject the premise completely.”

“We’re all just building out full infrastructure today that allows more compute to come into the world,” Friar said. “I don’t view it as circular at all,” she continued. “A huge body of work in the last year has been to diversify that supply chain.”

You know who also didn't view a glut of capacity as excessive,? Global Crossing: they too were one of the world's most valuable companies for a while... and then the went bankrupt.

As for whether OpenAI's "deals" are circular, let's ask Morgan Stanley: [...]

Of course, OpenAi knows very well just how farcical the whole circular financing circle-jerk is, and is also very well aware what the endgame is... it's precisely what we said a month ago: the government will step in sooner or later, and OpenAi is now doing everything it can to make it "sooner."

The money is not the problem: AI is the new global arms race, and capex will eventually be funded by governments (US and China). If you want to know why gold/silver/bitcoin is soaring, it's the "debasement" to fund the AI arms race.

[from @zerohedge] "But you can't print energy"

Besides the daily barrage of "deals" with chipmakers, OpenAI revealed today that it is also eying a broad mix of financing sources to fund its infrastructure efforts, and especially one: you.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/openai-cfo-disappointed-market-doesnt-have-more-ai-exuberance-seeks-us-government-backing

An Afghan migrant has been sentenced to five and a half years in prison and will be deported from Sweden after brutally raping a woman who was in Gothenburg to serve as a bridesmaid at her sister’s wedding.

The 25-year-old man lured the intoxicated woman to a park, raped her while choking her until she lost consciousness, and then fled with her credit card.

The victim, who had travelled to Gothenburg for the wedding last May, had gone out to a bar the night before the ceremony. After drinking heavily, she was unable to find her hotel. A man approached and offered to help guide her back. Instead, he led her into a nearby park where he attacked her.

As reported by Expressen, surveillance footage confirmed the sequence of events, showing the man following her from Gustav Adolf Square into the park. The victim told the court in a statement how she froze in fear when she realized there was no one around, fell backward onto gravel, and was violently raped. The attacker bit her, choked her until she could no longer see, and went through her belongings afterward, taking her credit card.

Despite the assault, the woman managed to call her girlfriend and an Uber. She went to the hospital for emergency treatment and left with just one hour to prepare for the wedding, covering her bruises with makeup.

She contracted a sexually transmitted disease, and the attack left her with a panic disorder that disrupted her work and ultimately caused the end of her relationship.

The attacker denied the accusations, claiming the sex was consensual. But the court found the woman’s account credible and consistent with physical evidence. Medical evidence showed neck injuries that were absent in footage taken just before the attack and consistent with the victim’s version of events. Further surveillance footage showed the man trying to buy cigarettes with the woman’s blocked credit card shortly after the assault.

A toxicology report revealed the woman’s blood alcohol level was 2.7 per mile, considered to be dangerously high and resulting in severe impairment. The court ruled that the man had clearly exploited her vulnerability and that the strangulation amounted to “violence of a particularly dangerous nature,” classifying the crime as aggravated rape.

He was also convicted of sexual assault for a separate offense involving groping and filming another woman while she slept.

The Afghan had arrived in Sweden alone in 2015 at the age of 15 and was initially denied asylum; however, he was later granted a temporary residence permit under the High School Act, which allowed him to stay in Sweden temporarily to complete his high school education, despite his asylum claim having been rejected. He reapplied for asylum and was again rejected.

The Migration Board issued a deportation order, which had not been enforced.

At the court hearing last week, the court confirmed the deportation order in connection with the rape conviction, noting that he committed an extremely serious crime, had failed to integrate after 10 years in the country, and had no family ties in Sweden.

https://rmx.news/article/another-eritrean-taxi-driver-charged-with-rape-in-sweden-as-migration-board-blocks-deportation/

Indians are celebrating new regulations that exempt migrant students from President Donald Trump’s $100,000 fee on new H-1B outsourcing workers.

“HUGE Immigration News!” declared Deedy Das, an Indian migrant who boasted of using other Indians to help him win an O-1 work visa. “If you studied in the US, the [Trump $100,000] fee doesn’t affect you. I’m now positive on this rule!”

“MASSIVE loophole,” tweeted immigration lawyer Charles Kuck. “[If] You come as a visitor/student/other nonimmigrant visa, you don’t need to pay the fee.”

“Game change for foreign grads,” declared Atal Agarwal, an advocate for Indian migrants:

[from @atalovesyou] "Trump’s $100,000 H-1B fee won’t apply to: – Students switching from F-1 to H-1B inside the US – Current H-1B holders extending their status – Any status changes happening domestically

Only affects NEW petitions for workers outside the country"

The work permits are distributed via President George W. Bush’s huge Optional Practical Training (OPT) and Curricular Practical Training (CPT) programs. In 2024, for example, White House officials granted work permits to 400,000 foreign graduates to help them take the career-starting jobs needed by U.S. graduates.

Many of the foreign graduates are hired for U.S. jobs via ethnic networks that exclude American professionals. The foreign graduates are also aided by low-wage, low-tax loopholes in employment laws.

[...] The work permits are especially valuable for foreign migrants because they help fund their stay in the United States while they apply to the H-1B lottery for the visas that include the option of residency and citizenship.

Now the loophole also ensures that more U.S. employers are likely to pick more U.S.-based foreign graduates for the roughly 110,000 new H-1B visas that are handed out each year. There is no cap to the annual inflow of H-1B workers.

https://www.amren.com/news/2025/10/indians-celebrate-massive-loophole-in-trumps-100000-h-1b-fee/

A petition has been submitted to Poland’s Chancellery of the President, in which the author proposes that childless women should retire at the age of 65 – “just like men,” writes Do Rzeczy. The portal notes that despite being forwarded to the legal department, this in no way indicates support for the proposal from the Chancellery or President Nawrocki himself.

The author, who remains anonymous, argues that women live longer on average than men, and the lack of social reasons, such as raising children, does not justify early retirement — although by the time a woman retires in Poland at the age of 60, she is most certainly no longer raising children.

The document was forwarded to the legal department – this is standard procedure and does not imply support for the proposal.

According to the petition, the reform would be implemented in stages: the first stage would extend the retirement age for childless women to 65, followed by a gradual extension to other groups of women (which remain unspecified), once “society has become accustomed to the new rules.”

The petitioner justifies the proposal, among other things, by the growing burden on the pension system and the declining birth rate. Currently, the difference in pensions between women and men averages approximately 1,500 PLN (€353) per month, to the detriment of women. This is primarily due to the earlier retirement age and shorter contribution record.

The proposal, or any advancement of it, is sure to hit a nerve among Polish women — at least a good many of them. According to a 2023 Ipsos poll, some 68% of Polish women supported legal abortion in all or most cases. Poland’s top court, under the previous conservative PiS government, passed far more restrictive abortion laws, resulting in mass protests in many cities. PM Tusk has since attempted to ease some of the “burdens” on women, but has also admitted that his government does not have the majority needed to reverse course and fully legalize abortion.

As a Catholic nation, Poland is home to some staunchly religious groups who are adamant that no form of abortion at any stage is ever allowed. Combined with Poland’s low fertility rate, hitting an all-time low of 1.1 children in 2024, one of the lowest in the world, the pressure is on for women to make more babies — and this proposal is clearly following this thinking.

At stake are the pensions of retirees today and most certainly those in the decades to come, as fewer and fewer Poles are paying into the system.

Sramatic forecasts regarding future benefits are increasingly common. According to data cited a few days ago by “Rzeczpospolita,” in 20-30 years, the average pension will amount to just 30 percent of the final salary.

“If someone earns PLN 6,000 gross today, they can count on about PLN 1,800 in retirement. This amount will be enough to cover bills and basic purchases for at most 10 days,” says economist Dr. Anna Rybicka from the Warsaw School of Economics.”

There is also good reason to be concerned about just how prepared Poles are or will be for this reality.

Only 25 percent of Poles regularly save money, with the same percentage having no savings at all. As many as two in three don’t use any retirement savings programs – such as Employee Capital Plans (PPK), Individual Pension Accounts (IKE), or Individual Pension Security Accounts (IKZE).

This has inevitably led to more and more Poles being forced to work later to supplement their pension, especially with inflation taking its toll on the cost of living.

Perhaps the best stat is the following: 15[%] of Poles hope to win their retirement money by gambling.

“The problem isn’t a lack of awareness, but a lack of planning,” comments Jarek Bartkiewicz, CEO of Prudential Polska. “Postponing ‘until later’ has become a national habit. And later may be too late.”

https://rmx.news/poland/no-children-later-retirement-for-you-controversial-proposal-for-women-sent-anonymously-to-polish-president-as-demographic-and-pension-crisis-hits-home/

In a report that has blindsided all bullion market participants, The FT reports that the US has slapped tariffs on imports of one-kilo gold bars, in a move that threatens to upend the global bullion market and deal a fresh blow to Switzerland, the world’s largest refining hub.

Coming just days after the Swiss government left The White House without agreeing on a trade deal, this is quite a shock since expectations were that all gold bars met the definition of 'bullion' and would therefore be exempt from tariffs. However, according to The FT, they will no longer be exempt...

The Customs Border Protection agency said one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levies, according to a so-called ruling letter dated July 31, which was seen by the Financial Times. Ruling letters are used by the US to clarify its trade policy.

As Switzerland refines 90% of gold sourced from industrial mines, gold is set to become significantly more expensive in the US than in the international market.

Note that the US is a significant gold producer as well and therefore, as UBS points out, any countervailing tariffs from other countries on gold may severely impact supply chains.

Knock-on effects will be felt in funding markets as there will be a massive closeout of short Exchange-For-Physical (EFP) positions which triggers the need for funding in London.

It may similarly apply to other metals too. However, the ruling in the article was specific to two codes used for gold bullion.

This is what markets had feared back in January, but at that time had no idea whether gold/precious metals would be exempt.

As a reminder, the global trade flow for bullion is normally triangular: large gold bars travel between London and New York, via Switzerland, where they are recast into different sizes. If the FT article proves to be correct, the market cannot do the same as before by pre-emptively moving metal into the US to avoid tariffs. Positions are likely get closed out or supply chains adjust to source from countries with zero tariffs, but this will be difficult given the bulk of refining capacity sits in Switzerland.

The below charts suggest that EFPs have risen sharply...

with 1m COMEX futures at a record spread to Spot prices...

... but lease rates have not exploded yet...

...which suggests that there is ample metal around in London at the moment.

[...] Diving a little deeper on what UBS warned about, the funding markets truly face a crisis.

"If shorts can’t source those bars easily, they’re forced to close out or roll positions, which cascades into a funding squeeze in London’s bullion banking system."

As @OneChanceFreedm pointed out:

[from ibid.] "The dehypothecation angle is key. Basel III’s Net Stable Funding Ratio was already nudging bullion banks toward holding more physical and less leveraged paper. This move accelerates that pressure by physically constraining deliverable supply in the very instruments that underpin settlement. In other words, it doesn’t just tighten the market, it undermines the ability to endlessly rehypothecate the same bars through the LBMA clearing system."

Finally, as we noted back in February, there is a potential ulterior motive here, which was also hinted at by The FT, suggesting that a gold revaluation by the US Treasury may be looming...

"currently, [US gold stocks] are valued at just $42 an ounce in national accounts. But knowledgeable observers reckon that if these were marked at current values — $2,800 an ounce — this could inject $800bn into the Treasury General Account, via a repurchase agreement. That might reduce the need to issue quite so many Treasury bonds this year [...]"

Things have accelerated a little since then: if we assume the 39% tariff that applies to Swiss goods, then Gold is currently worth $4726 (1.39 x $3400)... which implies a $1.235 Trillion bump for the US Treasury.

Higher gold prices, the better (for Trump), as @OneChanceFreedm concludes:

"[...] If intentional, it’s a geopolitical two for one where it weakens Switzerland’s refining dominance and force London’s bullion desks into a defensive funding position, all while boosting the relative leverage of U.S.-based refiners and COMEX as the global center of price discovery. That’s a strategic strike on the gold market’s offshore liquidity loop."

...assuming all that gold is there?

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/funding-crisis-fears-grow-after-gold-market-disrupted-report-us-tariffs-swiss

The latest developments in the South Caucasus are connected to the expansion of Turkiye’s sphere of influence eastwards towards the Caspian Sea and thenceforth Central Asia. The unrest in Armenia is driven by the opposition’s concerns that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is prepared to turn the country into a joint Azeri-Turkish protectorate. That could occur if he reaches a deal with them like some have reported to open the “Zangezur Corridor” without allowing it to come under Russian control like agreed.

The Moscow-mediated Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire of November 2020 mandates the creation of a Russian-controlled corridor across Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which Baku calls the Zangezur Corridor, for connecting both parts of Azerbaijan. Russian control would prevent Turkiye from streamlining its military logistics to Central Asia via these means for replacing Russia’s influence there with its own as part of a grand strategic powerplay that autonomously aligns with the West’s agenda.

The second development is directly connected with the first and relates to the newfound trouble in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. President Ilham Aliyev evidently believes that his country has a brighter future as part of a Turkish-led regional order instead of continuing to multi-align between it and Russia. He likely arrived at this conclusion due to the earlier cited reports about the Zangezur Corridor, which could have led to his policy recalibration that then emboldened him to bully Russia for regional prestige.

The catalyst for these developments is the credible possibility that the Zangezur Corridor might open up without coming under Russian control like agreed, which itself was brought about to a large degree by Assad’s downfall and the US’ subsequently changed policy towards the broader region in the aftermath. Turkish influence briefly surged in Syria before spooking Israel, which prompted Trump to bring previously terrorist-designated Ahmad al-Sharaa (Jolani) in from the cold to help manage their tensions.

He met him, encouraged him to join the Abraham Accords with Israel (which the latest reports suggest that Sharaa is considering), and removed the US’ sanctions on Syria. This sequence of events will greatly limit Turkish influence in Syria, but it’s balanced out by the PKK’s disbandment and the possible consolation prize that Trump could have given his friend Erdogan. That might involve him ceding the US’ previously envisaged joint US-French protectorate in Armenia to Turkiye and Azerbaijan instead.

It wouldn’t just be a goodwill gesture on Trump’s part but a pragmatic move since the US’ efforts to turn Armenia into a bastion for dividing-and-ruling the region required subordinating or overthrowing the Georgian government, which repelled several rounds of Color Revolution unrest to this end. This Biden-era failure derailed the US and France’s military logistics to Armenia, hence why it’s better to jettison this deadweight, which can now turbocharge Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power at Russia’s expense.

These calculations and associated policy changes, which stem from the black swan event of Assad’s downfall, account for the latest developments in the South Caucasus. Nevertheless, Aliyev didn’t have to abandon Azerbaijan’s Russian-Turkish balancing act nor bully Russia as he clearly ordered his officials to do by raiding Sputnik’s office and beating up other detained Russians. These emotional, short-sighted, and totally unexpected moves inadvertently risk Azerbaijan becoming Turkiye’s junior partner with time.

https://korybko.substack.com/p/whyd-erdogan-decide-to-expand-turkiyes