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   Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Saturday, 23-Nov-2024 22:05:02 JST Charlie Stross

   A reminder to USAns who think that local state laws will provide shelter from the coming Trump federal regime: Germany in 1933 was a federal republic, too. But with control of the legislature and the courts, Hitler was one Enabling Act away from sweeping everything before him, at every level of government. Blue state governments won't save you from a determined federal-level putsch.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Saturday, 23-Nov-2024 22:16:56 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     @cstross yes and no. American states and even localities have successfully told the feds to fuck off. the most recent high profiles cases of this were gay marriage and marijuana. but... there's been a lot of you and whose army moments, and the feds usually back down. it's complicated.

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     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Saturday, 23-Nov-2024 22:33:05 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Glenn

     @glennsills If you want to feel better, consider that Trump is selecting only corrupt incompetents for his cabinet because he wants them dependent on him. They may not be able to push his agenda as far as they'd like.

     But relying on the far right to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory would be disastrously optimistic.

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     Glenn (glennsills@dotnet.social)'s status on Saturday, 23-Nov-2024 22:33:06 JST Glenn

     in reply to

     @cstross Thanks for making me feel so much better Charlie.

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     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Saturday, 23-Nov-2024 23:13:01 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Quinn Norton

     @quinn I note that the US military, with about 2M total head-count, isn't large enough to serve as an occupying force for a polity the size of the USA (350M population): traditional rule of thumb is a 1:30 ratio. Assuming only half the US needs forcibly subjugating, that'd take 9-10M or so troops to occupy blue state America: even with the National Guard and police 100% on board, the federal government falls short.

     Thiel's surveillance tech empire might change the equation, though.

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     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 03:39:43 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Heteromeles

     @heteromeles Don't worry, there's plenty of time for the European war to turn nuclear. Maybe even before Trump is sworn in.

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     Heteromeles (heteromeles@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 03:39:44 JST Heteromeles

     in reply to

     @cstross You do realize how many months to years it takes for any court, especially a federal court, to get anything done in the US. Right? And the US military is 0.5-1% of the population. And, as we learned in Iraq, we can break a place, but we can't rebuild it, especially with massive non cooperation. Don't rerun Hitler just yet. I'm more worried about war over Taiwan with a stripped military and idiots in charge. Think WW1 with nukes maybe. I live in US target #1 Oh well.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 04:53:27 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     @cstross One of the interesting wrinkles is that I don't think the Right Wing can trust the military to deploy domestically, and they know that. They're also planning to start stripping it down, and rolling back reforms that have helped recruiting and retention. If they don't watch it, they're just training a portion of their violent opposition.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 04:54:40 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     @cstross
     I do not want it to go this way. But it could. The US was always destined to end in a coup and break apart, a standing army that big... gets used one day, as institutions and resources fall apart.

     I just always though it would be right wing. Now I'm not so sure, and I don't like where it's going.

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     Nalyd620 (nalyd620@mastodon.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:02:11 JST Nalyd620

     in reply to

     @cstross
     I just wonder how many in the military are going to be willing to re enlist. Contrary to popular belief the US military is very much a plethora of different idealisms. My son just served and got out and I learned a lot from his experiences. I think Trump could possibly lose rather than gain. Instead, he may try to create his own "type" of army which will not go well. These current generals getting ousted could create problems for him.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:02:11 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     • Nalyd620

     @Nalyd620 @cstross especially with wanting to take women out of combat roles, restrict various forms of healthcare, etc. i come from a mil family, though no one in my generation served. i almost went to the navy, but was always destined to be bounced for health reasons. it was always diverse, in race, ideology, class, etc, at least since vietnam. it's going to be interesting times.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:05:57 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     @cstross i don't like the surveillance state, but if you lean on it too hard in a circumstance lack the one you're proposing, it stops being helpful because they want you to see what they're planning to do to you, mr thiel.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:08:05 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     • JeffreySmith 🌻🍉

     @JeffreySmith @cstross yeah there's definitely going to be tiny defectors all over for the next years. there were already in the last trump admin, and they screamed and hollered about it, but they couldn't replace people with competent actors, and didn't get to do a lot of things. this heritage plan is all about loyalists and not about keeping the lights on, so we'll see how that goes.

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     JeffreySmith 🌻🍉 (jeffreysmith@mastdn.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:08:06 JST JeffreySmith 🌻🍉

     in reply to

     • Quinn Norton

     @cstross @quinn

     Fortunately, there will also be millions of bureaucrats in state government who can resist by doing nothing. I lost track of a deportation order once which resulted in a young working guy being able to stay in the states despite having a minor drug using offense. I worry most about militias being emboldoned to act in accordance with racist policies.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:11:33 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     • Medea Vanamonde🏳️‍⚧️ ♀

     @MishaVanMollusq @cstross I told my partner that I'm good with staying in Europe with him for life, unless I need to go back and help build the nation or nations of the west coast.

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     Medea Vanamonde🏳️‍⚧️ ♀ (mishavanmollusq@sfba.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:11:34 JST Medea Vanamonde🏳️‍⚧️ ♀

     in reply to

     @cstross Russia may get what it wants …the west coast splitting off from Damnation Alley .
     We could potentially see a The Generals kinds situation but i rate that possible future as 59:1 Against.
     May have to CosPlay Hell Tanner and make a run for The Boundary in the smokies

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:19:11 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     • JeffreySmith 🌻🍉

     @JeffreySmith yeah, it'll be interesting times. he will be invoking stuff, and i feel for the military people and families that end up caught in the middle of it all. the mil is going to be gutted by the end of this.

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     JeffreySmith 🌻🍉 (jeffreysmith@mastdn.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:19:18 JST JeffreySmith 🌻🍉

     in reply to

     • Quinn Norton

     @quinn Fortunately, our military has a tradition of non-involvement in civil affairs due to fealty to the Constitution. The failure of trump to secure even 50% of votes should help support officers who don't want to follow illegal orders if trump invokes the Insurrection Act.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:57:57 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     @cstross it's going to be interesting times. the mil people are definitely more local to the rule of law and the constitution than their gov is.

   • Embed this notice
     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 05:58:00 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Quinn Norton

     @quinn The US military is surprisingly small, in terms of people: it was an order of magnitude larger within living memory. What makes it effective is that it professionalized to an extent unimagined by any military before the 1990s. I don't see Trump's "reforms" doing anything good for morale or retention, so it can all fall apart within a single enlistment term.

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 06:52:13 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     • Dan McDonald

     @danmcd @cstross That is a very good question. I spent a lot of time on the revolutions that didn't turn in 2010-2015ish, and they really reminded me of 1848. It took 50+ years, but 1849 got everything it "wanted" and I often wonder if we're in a period that, well, rhymes.

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     Dan McDonald (danmcd@hostux.social)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 06:52:14 JST Dan McDonald

     in reply to

     • Quinn Norton

     @quinn @cstross

     How much of right now is the 1850s instead of the 1930s?

   • Embed this notice
     Charlie Stross (cstross@wandering.shop)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 08:22:24 JST Charlie Stross

     in reply to

     • Quinn Norton
     • Dan McDonald

     @quinn @danmcd Totally plausible, unfortunately.

   • Embed this notice
     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 09:02:31 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     • Dan McDonald

     @cstross @danmcd i mean, it's tough times ahead no matter what, but a replay of the seeds sown in 1848 and reaped in the 20th century could be very good. There's no easy way though, but rights and standards and democratic processes progressing in the 1848 manner is a very good political future. we'll be gone, but that's how it works anyway. 😁

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     Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 09:03:53 JST Quinn Norton

     in reply to

     • sabik

     @sabik @cstross I think it'll be more mixed this time, but yeah it'll be very complicated.

   • Embed this notice
     sabik (sabik@rants.au)'s status on Sunday, 24-Nov-2024 09:03:54 JST sabik

     in reply to

     • Quinn Norton

     @quinn @cstross
     Back in 2020, the army was not on Trump's side; the May 2020 memo from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was pretty clear