Notices by Quinn Norton (quinn@social.circl.lu)

@sabik @cstross I think it'll be more mixed this time, but yeah it'll be very complicated.

@cstross @danmcd i mean, it's tough times ahead no matter what, but a replay of the seeds sown in 1848 and reaped in the 20th century could be very good. There's no easy way though, but rights and standards and democratic processes progressing in the 1848 manner is a very good political future. we'll be gone, but that's how it works anyway. 😁

@paddyduke yeah at that point there's a lot to be said about definitions of capitalism and centralization. Like, I just don't have a huge problem with a group of people investing in shares to, say, get a local business up and running, and technically that's capitalism. And I definitely like my decentralized systems to have some centralized monitoring with regulation, because I never want to see a headline that includes "rogue container ship hits/sink/is captured..." etc.

@danmcd @cstross That is a very good question. I spent a lot of time on the revolutions that didn't turn in 2010-2015ish, and they really reminded me of 1848. It took 50+ years, but 1849 got everything it "wanted" and I often wonder if we're in a period that, well, rhymes.

@stdh at least be thinking. I suspect like all refugees/seekers/hell immigrants in general, they'll be looking at place where they already have people, even if it's long distant cousins.

...or the first flight that takes off before the cops can catch them, either way. a lot of this is probably going to go Canada's way too. They *really* need to be building so much housing.

@stdh oh yeah, that's true. a nurse nowadays can run the table for any country they like.

but yeah, if, as was my example, a doctor who performed abortions managed to flee the country while wanted under charges that might carry the death penalty in the US, that would be quite the moment for Europe. But America isn't very far away from that.

@cstross it's going to be interesting times. the mil people are definitely more local to the rule of law and the constitution than their gov is.

@stdh but they also can't return americans facing a death penalty, and it might be pretty difficult to deport them for things that are just normal human rights in europe. they don't need to decide america is a bad country legally, but politically... that's a hot potato.

@JeffreySmith yeah, it'll be interesting times. he will be invoking stuff, and i feel for the military people and families that end up caught in the middle of it all. the mil is going to be gutted by the end of this.

@paddyduke i'm using capitalism in the expansive sense; as in there is a form for small and regional businesses, "firms" as it were, in local contexts, and under regulation. I'm not happy with American capitalism, but I'm also old enough to remember how badly soviet communism went down. it's good to have parts of society that aren't the government.

@MishaVanMollusq @cstross I told my partner that I'm good with staying in Europe with him for life, unless I need to go back and help build the nation or nations of the west coast.

@JeffreySmith @cstross yeah there's definitely going to be tiny defectors all over for the next years. there were already in the last trump admin, and they screamed and hollered about it, but they couldn't replace people with competent actors, and didn't get to do a lot of things. this heritage plan is all about loyalists and not about keeping the lights on, so we'll see how that goes.

@cstross i don't like the surveillance state, but if you lean on it too hard in a circumstance lack the one you're proposing, it stops being helpful because they want you to see what they're planning to do to you, mr thiel.

@drwho @cstross nah. they do that twice and they'll start to get hungry as their own logistics stop working.

@Nalyd620 @cstross especially with wanting to take women out of combat roles, restrict various forms of healthcare, etc. i come from a mil family, though no one in my generation served. i almost went to the navy, but was always destined to be bounced for health reasons. it was always diverse, in race, ideology, class, etc, at least since vietnam. it's going to be interesting times.

@cstross
I do not want it to go this way. But it could. The US was always destined to end in a coup and break apart, a standing army that big... gets used one day, as institutions and resources fall apart.

I just always though it would be right wing. Now I'm not so sure, and I don't like where it's going.

@cstross One of the interesting wrinkles is that I don't think the Right Wing can trust the military to deploy domestically, and they know that. They're also planning to start stripping it down, and rolling back reforms that have helped recruiting and retention. If they don't watch it, they're just training a portion of their violent opposition.

@paddyduke @futurebird I don't think you understood my post, because nothing you're saying makes sense to me. not in a confrontational way but in a you thought i was talking about something else kind of way

@cstross yes and no. American states and even localities have successfully told the feds to fuck off. the most recent high profiles cases of this were gay marriage and marijuana. but... there's been a lot of you and whose army moments, and the feds usually back down. it's complicated.

@futurebird The American problem is laissez faire plantation capitalism. Other forms can be fairly effective counter balances to centralized governmental power, and restrained by regulations and culture. America, on the other has been trying to figure out how to defeat the 13th amendment since it past and balked at any democratic restraints on money.