You are the bodyguard team for an 80 year old politician who is universally reviled both domestically and abroad. He has a penchant for public speaking, he loves the spotlight. Your job is to quickly escort a sleepy geriatric to safety during numerous and endless immediate attempts on his life.
Iran can likely weather a blockade until Novembers midterm elections, and if trump calls the war without some sort of capitulation from iran then he loses a lot of credibility with his base.
If he keeps the blockade and Iran holds the Hormuz, then the 30% of voters that still approve of him will walk away due to high gas prices and economic woes. The UK has about a month of jet fuel left before planes stop flying.
China has reserves it can offer, which would be an absolute disaster for US foreign policy. Send a few tankers to first island chain nations and now your strategy of containment is toast. Smaller nations will absolutely reconsider their trades in yuan.
tank US markets as Iran becomes increasingly adept at striking us military bases and assets. Exacerbate the oil crisis in nearly a dozen nations and domestically. US enters recession as regular life becomes unaffordable. Europe runs out of jet fuel.
End the war =
Massive blow to imperialist interests in the middle east. Hard stop for Israel as Washington no longer has the political staying power or weapons stocks to defend its genocides. Israel now faces open pressure from Europe which is now boldened to sever economic ties. Petrodollar allies begin accelerating yuan diversification, stop requesting currency swap. Petrodollar dies, US enters massive recession.
Eternal ceasefire=
USA enters a north Korean style quagmire, refuses to declare peace, actively rebuilds regional military hegemony, but is unable to isolate or contain Iran as it still controls Hormuz and provides oil to western markets, enjoys Russian and Chinese osint and geospatial intelligence products. Iran becomes too powerful to defeat through conventional warfare, tariffs all ships as reparation for war. Western stagflation ensues.
@verita84 a someone who loves sci fi I'm excited but as someone who recoils at the idea of having a child ride me like a fucking farm animal during combat I'm revolted. Make a version with no kids.