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big, if true.
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Yep, the generals (the real cartel bosses) sold Maduro out. He knew it but there wasn't anything he could do except plead for negotiations, but then it was too late. Not that Venezuelans would be able to operate any of that equipment, mind you.
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@Paleface @BroDrillard it's not impossible, and with him having cubans as his security detail at his house it certainly lends some credibility to there being a rift.
But as I was saying last night that would imply that he was isolated and drastically unpopular.
Turning off that many radar sites and having that many people stand down makes a very large conspiracy, and it's very easy for holes to form
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Nah, I don't believe this. Everything was turned off and at least a corridor opened. Nobody even got a manpad out of the box.
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@BroDrillard @sickburnbro there was absolutely no need of local cooperation for this raid. we have plenty of EW capability and the speed of the assault alone would've likely been sufficient to avoid any anti-air. I really doubt venezuela runs a tight ship re: air traffic control given all the drug trafficking in south america, so how do they even ID the threat positively?
MANPADS are completely irrelevant in this equation
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@deprecated_ii @BroDrillard why do you say MANPADS are completely irrelevant?
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@MeBigbrain I'm also thinking of trying to decipher china quality instructions for consumer goods, can't be better for military instruction manuals
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@MeBigbrain frankly, learning new military equipment is hard, and I'm sure unless China had personnel there running it, they weren't running it right.
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@sickburnbro [Remembering Ukrainians getting brand new tanks and then driving them into the mud]
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@sickburnbro Oh yeah wasn't there a tweet from two weeks ago where Venezuela was bragging about their new air defenses?
Not that any of this is news, anyone who doesn't drink the sweet and sour Kool-aid knows that China is a paper tiger economically, technologically, and militarily
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@Heil_Honkler from my understanding they also bombbed stuff
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@sickburnbro not really? you know how you defeat radar? you fly LOW. guess what they used? HELICOPTERS. What can you do with HELICOPTERS?
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@wgiwf @Paleface @BroDrillard yes, but if you have one guy who you haven't read in, and you tell him to go tell 10 people to stay home, what happens if he actually does like Maduro?
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@sickburnbro @Paleface @BroDrillard The conspirators aren't going to tell others their plans. They'll just tell the radar operators to stay home.
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@wgiwf @Paleface @BroDrillard and then multiply that over however many times that needs to delegated from the generals that took the deal
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@BobsonDugnuttHB @BroDrillard thats literally retarded, though.
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@BobsonDugnuttHB @BroDrillard if a deal was taken, people that matter will know quickly.
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@BroDrillard @sickburnbro Half the reason for this operation was to push propaganda that the US military isn't largely worthless, after the failure of its proxy in peer warfare against Russia, and the US Navy's failure in asymmetric warfare against the Houthis.
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@eee @BobsonDugnuttHB @BroDrillard like thinking that the government gives a shit about how effective *we* think the military is .. that's just hilarious. They want people running foreign governments to think that.
And those people have money and power and want to know.
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@BobsonDugnuttHB @sickburnbro @BroDrillard those helis flew low enough for early 20th century AA and flashlights to kill them all, they were visible against the sky
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@sickburnbro @BroDrillard You need to reel that shit in, dude.
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@BroDrillard @Paleface @wgiwf I mean sure, assuming they are all close enough and not during a shift change AND that the us time table wasn't reliant at all on the weather.
It's just a lot of moving parts.
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That's not how you do it. The one guy in charge of AD visits the sites in the corridor an hour or two before and tells them to turn shit off.
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@Paleface @BroDrillard who knows, who knows. All I'm going to say is that if the third world can't operate modern military equipment because they can't do a little maintenance, the future is not going to be kind
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Dude, they're Venezuelans. How much work do you think is needed to get them to *not* work?
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@eee @BobsonDugnuttHB @BroDrillard that's the part that just is hard to square in total. Either they had all these people that *could* have responded, but they got notice to sit this one out, or they got caught with their pants down.
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@BobsonDugnuttHB @sickburnbro @BroDrillard cool doods on tacticals couldve shot them down with iron sights
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@BroDrillard @Paleface @wgiwf I mean .. AD .. turning them off, I think this is in fact rocket surgery, or at least a remote consult.
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You don't need everybody there, that's retarded. The chief AD guy pays a few visits to the relevant stations and tell the one officer who's in charge at each one to turn shit off for two hours. C'mon this is not rocket surgery.
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@eee @BroDrillard @BobsonDugnuttHB paying someone to do a coup is a little different than relying on them to disable every single defense so you can fly in like 8 helicopters.
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@BroDrillard @BobsonDugnuttHB @sickburnbro paid off 100% just like syria, south america is corrupt af and poor
there's billions riding on this shit
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Counting on everybody having their pants down, with not a single guy on the ball is even more of a stretch. I get it, it's latam, but they knew the US Navy is right there at their coast.
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@BroDrillard @BobsonDugnuttHB @eee I would have simply put exlax in all their burritos, and they would have all been in the toilet all night, shitting.
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@wgiwf @deprecated_ii @BroDrillard @Paleface Either that or they have something they are extremely confident will handle them.
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@deprecated_ii @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro True, that's what the CIA agents on the ground are for. It's quite clear that this was an intel op first and foremost with the military finally bringing Maduro in after striking any potential remnants of resistance that the prior intel operations couldn't quash. There are people in Venezuela who wanted him gone, whether just locals willing to inform to the spooks or outright government defectors.
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@deprecated_ii @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro The thing is that you are not going to send a convoy of very vulnerable helicopters to capture him if you think there's a good chance of losing any of them.
Let's say the Venezuelans are all monkey people incapable of operating complex military equipment: monkey people are still quite capable of shooting down helicopters with Igla missiles. Those manpads were neutralized on the ground in some manner before a single Blackhawk flew over the coast.
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@BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro @wgiwf It would be completely retarded to base an op on some shithole colonel's word.
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@wgiwf @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro I don't know why so many people are suddenly convinced that military operations need to be essentially zero risk but this is an extremely ridiculous position to take. Helicopters have been sent on risky missions since they were invented. 160th SOAR and Delta exist specifically to perform high risk ops.
Caracas is not Abbottabad. It's 4 minutes from the friggin coast. We had EW planes up blasting their radars. The mission was at 2 AM. We'd had aircraft up flitting around for weeks at that point, none of which were engaged.
I already stated why the Igla is not relevant to this discussion in another comment, but to summarize: how are you gonna target a black helicopter at night flying 160-180 mph at low altitude with a weapon that requires 13 seconds to arm?
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@deprecated_ii @wgiwf @BroDrillard @Paleface yeah, I counted how long it was for the helicopters to get out of frame in the video. It's just wild that they wouldn't have any at his residence, but maybe that's just in hindsight.
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yea I'm inclined to believe this point of view. Maduro probably made a deal to advocate and sell out his nation.
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@deprecated_ii @wgiwf @BroDrillard @Paleface he was a) an easy target and b) the democrats were saying he had to go last january, so it makes it difficult for them to cry about it.
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@wgiwf @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro maybe he was just the one easy target
bogota is way the hell inland and cuba has weird historical baggage
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@wgiwf @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro unless the infil route was very circuitous, a shithook would only take 4-5 minutes from coast to caracas. 10 minutes or so from entering venezuelan airspace. no idea how long it was between the first strike and when the ground assault force entered the airspace
I'd be surprised if the ground force was in caracas for more than 20-25 minutes. most of the operation time was presumably the initial suppression and then covering the exfil. there was surely a large element of distraction here, and I doubt the venezuelan military really understood that maduro was the target until he was already gone
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@deprecated_ii @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro Okay, that makes a lot more sense. You really would only need someone on the ground to confirm his location, then. By the time they could conceivably respond and try and shoot down any helos he would've been on one flying out to sea.
Still, if you're going to use up the opportunity to be able to snatch up someone like that, that fat retard Maduro was a waste of such a surprise operation.
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@wgiwf @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro I don't know exactly what happened and neither does anyone else in this thread. My position is it's retarded to claim the only way this went down was by paying off the locals, when this sort of op is WELL WITHIN the capabilities of special operations. It's actually precisely the sort of thing they're good for.
You guys have absurd expectations for any military, frankly. Coordinating an effective air defense response from a fundamentally peacetime posture less than 12 minutes into the first strike? Absolutely absurd. It was a clusterfuck in Ukraine on both sides for literally months after the invasion. There was confusion about who to engage, when, for weeks into the invasion of Iraq (part 2).
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@deprecated_ii @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro Did the flight from the coast to the residence take about 12 minutes? If so, that explains things. When news sources were stating that the whole thing took like 3 hours I forgot that most of that time would be spent flying to and from the mission area over open sea.
40 minutes to an hour is certainly fast enough to catch them with their pants down. I was operating under the assumption that they spent multiple hours in Caracas.
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@deprecated_ii @BroDrillard @Paleface @sickburnbro I don't think anyone would claim military operations must inherently be low risk but this is a very political move by nature and failure is more than just taking casualties—worse than that it would embarrass Trump, who ordered it. I just think hyping the operation up as US military triumph when they did everything possible to make it go smoothly, as one should, against a bunch of incompetents is misguided.
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@wgiwf @deprecated_ii @BroDrillard @Paleface I've heard the entire operation took 88 minutes ( no joke )
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