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1. Embed this notice
   Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 21:47:10 JST Bread up, Bro
   the ev advocates want to pretend that wider adoption will fix this, but it won't.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:02:06 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @EssentialUtinsil autoblog.com/article/evs-are-the-most-expensive-vehicles-to-operate-over-1000-miles-according-to-iseecars/ - the cost is normalized to mileage. If anything, I'd say the EVs are going to be even more expensive because the lower mileage will conceal costs.
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:02:07 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro this is misleading because electric cars are driven less (according to the study) but they're more expensive. it doesn't have so much to do with the cost of energy or maintenance.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:08:37 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • teknomunk
     @teknomunk My feeling on this is that none of the electric cars are as energy efficient as they claim.
   • Embed this notice
     teknomunk (teknomunk@apogee.polaris-1.work)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:08:38 JST teknomunk

     in reply to
     @sickburnbro
     
     Correct. That aside, I find in interesting that hybrids are cheaper per mile than gas, but that plugin hybrid is more expensive than gas. I'm curious what is driving that extra cost. Larger batteries are my first thought.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:09:23 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • teknomunk
     @teknomunk I get the "on paper we say we can do this, but we do a lot worse, but we can fix this in engineering" vibe.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:09:55 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil the unexamined part of course is what will electricity prices look like in that situation.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:09:56 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @EssentialUtinsil @sickburnbro other studies have shown that gas prices have to be pretty astronomical for lifetime cost of an EV to be less than a gas vehicle, especially if you drive an EV long enough to kill the battery.
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:12:48 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • teknomunk
     @teknomunk @sickburnbro
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:12:48 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • teknomunk
     @EssentialUtinsil @teknomunk the lower cost of hybrids versus gas makes me feel like the average size of hybrids being more priusy is effecting those numbers.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:14:24 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil electric moves a lot slower than gas, I know ours are statutorily limited and the government has to approve price hikes. The fuel cost absolutely is almost always cheaper for electrics but unless you’re doing a new lease every 3 years and eating the $800 a month you’re not just paying for fuel
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:14:24 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil "fuel" cost based on what, government "e-mpg" ?
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:16:23 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil based on the fact that my electricity costs 10 cents a kw
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:16:23 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil right, but 10c/kW is the cost to the plug.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:20:12 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil I assume that's because gas is already oppressively taxed.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:20:13 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil the model 3 would cost me less than $10 to charge and my best economy car costs $40 to fill up for about 2x the range
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:21:10 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire again, kWh out at the plug is not kWh at the wheel.
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:21:11 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @sapphire yeah for sure, but that is already highly variable depending on location. in the US, a kWh is between about 10 and 25 cents (hawaii is almost 35 but an outlier). average american drives around 35miles a day, most EVs use somewhere in the neighborhood of .3kWh/mile so you'd have to increase electricity cost quite a bit to make that unaffordable. it's currently only a buck or two a day going on averages.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:24:27 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil and again, this is assuming a modified eco diesel and you’re still having to claw pennies and percents to try to get in the same ballpark
     
     Your 30mpg standard shitbox has no chance of getting price per mile parity on fuel alone.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:24:27 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil remember, when you have plug in, you have kWh at the wall, which goes into your step up, which uses energy, it charges battery, which uses energy, you drive ev, battery uses energy to produce voltage .. then you get motor turning.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:29:34 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil yes and all of that adds up to about half* the dollar per mile compared to an average gasser, or about 15% less than my aggressively eco tuned street illegal diesel
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:29:34 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil assuming what you are paying for gasoline.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:32:02 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil Oh, I assumed you were in maple-land
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:32:03 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil tell me more about this magical state where gas currently costs a buck fifty a gallon.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:32:47 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • BillingtonYVR
     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @BillingtonYVR @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire yes, their syrup tithe is late.
   • Embed this notice
     BillingtonYVR (billingtonyvr@eveningzoo.club)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:32:48 JST BillingtonYVR

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     You got a problem with Maple land?
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:37:25 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil I have yet to see any numbers I find convincing on ev cost, in terms vehicle energy going in at plug versus miles driven where it isn't a simulated environment.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:37:26 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil lmfao no, I’m in North Carolina why the fuck would I ever willingly be Canadian
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:37:59 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil like: "driving through the smoky mountains with your AC on"
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:42:42 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil I just provided you the most pessimistic numbers I could crunch against my literal supersipper, you can’t convince me that if I had a maintenance provided free EV that I wouldn’t pay less than any pure ICE car on the planet and honestly I’d only fight over one hybrid they don’t make anymore.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:42:42 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil sure, I mean I am glad it works for you, but I'm trying to say that I just don't believe it as a general statement.
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:44:29 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @sapphire I'm an electrical engineer, I'm aware. If it takes 120kWh to charge a 100kWh battery, ok...at .20 a kWh that's a $4 loss on what, a 300mile charge?
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:44:29 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire no, it's $4 loss on 100kWh; 300mi comes later.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:45:41 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire because all batteries have leakage, so we need to define the characteristics of the test scenario in order to start getting to the mileage.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:47:55 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil back of the napkin math on the least efficient EV according to motortrend vs the most efficient car I have personal experience with
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:47:55 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil right, I get it but that's what I've said - I don't trust any manufacture or government numbers. All I trust is a magazine or organization or something that runs an actual real world test and has raw data available.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:51:28 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil these are all real world data I pulled from the most pessimistic sources possible (for the EV) or my own experience (for my shitbox Volkswagen)
     
     You can seethe all you want but this is quite literally the worst possible EV scenario I could find
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:51:28 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil if asking for varied test cases with raw data is seething, I can do nothing but shrug my shoulders as to where we are as a society.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:54:24 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil I'm not asking you to google, this data doesn't exist.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:54:25 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil “if throwing a tantrum unless you to do extra googling for me is seething” ftfy
     
     If you want more data you’re more than welcome to look for it, I made my point.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:56:50 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire If you go to mars for instance, an electrically powered vehicle makes a lot of good sense for a number of reasons.
     
     No atmosphere so intensity of solar radiation is a lot higher
     No oil refining, so no native source of gasoline.
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:56:51 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @sapphire I have nothing against EV as a technology, it has limitations and still needs improvement and refinement. It can be better than ICE in some cases, worse in other cases. I hate the propaganda and social engineering behind it though.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:58:07 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil ok, show me the best "test" in your opinion.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:58:08 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil yes it does, people have been doing real world tests of EVs for close to 10 years now. Not my fault if you’re too lazy to look for them, or that they didn’t connect all the dots for you so you, god forbid, actually have to think for yourself
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:59:36 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil not your personal Google we already went over this.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 22:59:36 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil I've already looked at dozens of gladhanded "tests", I'm not really impressed.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:01:37 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil Until we have SMRs everywhere, I'm not interested in battery vehicles.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:09:17 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil I'm not concerned with ideals, because I know all players in these spaces are fucking liars, even VW with their gaming of EPA numbers on their turbodiesels.
     
     What I want to see is what I have said I want to see - more data, because the amount anecdotal stories which conflict with the official line mean there is a story to find.
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:09:18 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil have you compared them to ICE numbers or just looked, saw they didn’t match ideals, and scoffed?
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:11:14 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire What "mass adoption" would improve what?
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:11:15 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @sapphire ok. I wasn't saying you should. all I said was the study in your OP was misleading, and mass adoption would actually improve the specific thing in the study (purchase price normalized to average usage)
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:16:31 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire what happens if car producers are already losing money on each car at their current prices
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:16:32 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @sapphire it would lower the purchase price normalized to the average usage miles, which is the primary thing used in the study.
   • Embed this notice
     Caek Islove ? ❤️ (caekislove@gleasonator.com)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:17:29 JST Caek Islove ? ❤️

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire

     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire They'll make it up in volume!

   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:17:29 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • Caek Islove ? ❤️
     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @caekislove @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire lightningowners.com/threads/ford-lost-36-000-for-every-electric-vehicle-sold-last-quarter-so-was-toyota-right.4694/
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:20:18 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire yes, that's kind of the bad part. We have a lot of very perverse incentives going on here.
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:20:19 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @sapphire mass adoption already implies that this isn't the case.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:26:55 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • teknomunk
     • sapphire
     @teknomunk @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire I was once excited about new battery technologies, but the thing to keep in mind is we landed on lithium because guys doing battery work tried a lot of other things before they got there.
     
     That means if a simpler cleaner material isn't being used, there almost certainly is a reason why.
   • Embed this notice
     teknomunk (teknomunk@apogee.polaris-1.work)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:26:56 JST teknomunk

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire
     
     I might believe there are massive battery cost savings at scale once *sodium ion has a density closer to lithium ion, but even then, I don't think there are desired gains and what gains there are won't be fast regardless of how much demand there is or how much money is thrown at the problem.
     
     * sodium ion is one of the few upcoming battery tehcnologies I have my eyes on, because the primary component comes from table salt (sodium being the Na in NaCl), and we have a lot of it everywhere the ocean is, so material availability won't be a limit on scaling for a very long time
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     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:27:55 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • d
     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @deprecated_ii @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire that's why I said SMRs.
   • Embed this notice
     d (deprecated_ii@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:27:56 JST d

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire @sickburnbro it won't be that simple if everyone has an EV. the US grid needs to be expanded to the tune of 500% to support full adoption, or else it needs to be expanded like 100% or so and then have really aggressive price spikes to control demand
     
     power plant fuel could be free and they would still have to do this because there's only so much peaking capacity in the grid
   • Embed this notice
     EssentialUtinsil :njp: (essentialutinsil@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:27:57 JST EssentialUtinsil :njp:

     in reply to

     • sapphire
     @sapphire @sickburnbro yeah, the cost of energy isn't the thing to really argue about, EV does win that, even if the price of electricity goes up in the future (which also raises the cost of fossil fuel). Maintenance and durability would seem the more obvious contest.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:36:42 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • sapphire
     @sapphire @EssentialUtinsil bullshit regulations is the name of the game for the EPA.
     
     They are literal magic thinking people: "if we make regulations, people will make things that conform"
   • Embed this notice
     sapphire (sapphire@shortstacksran.ch)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:36:43 JST sapphire

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil >VW lying
     
     Nobody will tell you this but they only did this because US environmental regulations on diesels are actually unattainable, were something like 50x more strict than Europe
   • Embed this notice
     teknomunk (teknomunk@apogee.polaris-1.work)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:37:11 JST teknomunk

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • teknomunk
     • sapphire
     @sickburnbro @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire
     
     Agreed. Batteries are one of the last things to get excited about, in large part because development is extremely slow. I've been watching sodium ion technology for years and there are just now starting to be batteries I can order.
     Bread up, Bro likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:39:30 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • EssentialUtinsil :njp:
     • teknomunk
     • sapphire
     @teknomunk @EssentialUtinsil @sapphire I remember when people were hyping lithium-air.
     
     I think rechargable batteries are a pretty neat use of physical phenomena, but it's easy to abstract away your doing a ton of chemical reactions all the time, and they can be extremely sensitive to a lot of things.
   • Embed this notice
     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:45:42 JST Bread up, Bro

     in reply to

     • cjd
     @cjd the problem is the R&D is the magic "step 2" here. Nothing using in EVs has not already had substantial engineering effort put into it.
   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Monday, 06-May-2024 23:45:43 JST cjd

     in reply to
     It probably will, but only after another 10-15 years of R&D, economies of scale, etc. It's just not quick, and government interventionism makes it worse because government interventionism makes EVERYTHING worse.
   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Tuesday, 07-May-2024 00:14:27 JST cjd

     in reply to
     The thing about substantial engineering effort is that there's a time component that you just can't get around.
     
     For all the talk you hear about breakthroughs, real world technological progress is astonishingly linear. You can generally put a ruler on a chart and declare that in 2035, batteries will be this cheap and this efficient.
     
     There will come a point at which this tech actually makes economic sense and when that point comes, it's going to be a LCD TV moment where suddenly everyone just switches. But it's going to take longer than the EV fanboys want to believe.
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     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 07-May-2024 00:17:01 JST Bread up, Bro

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     • cjd
     @cjd it's worse than that. Assuming a linear relationship between time and lithium ion battery energy density means that given enough time the density goes to infinity.
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     teknomunk (teknomunk@apogee.polaris-1.work)'s status on Tuesday, 07-May-2024 00:50:56 JST teknomunk

     in reply to

     • cjd
     @sickburnbro @cjd
     
     It just means we are in a region that is easily approximated by a straight line. The actual path is probably something closer to an S-curve with a maximum value that is never reachable.
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     Bread up, Bro (sickburnbro@poa.st)'s status on Tuesday, 07-May-2024 00:52:10 JST Bread up, Bro

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     • cjd
     • teknomunk
     @teknomunk @cjd yes, and if you realize that batteries are older than internal combustion engines, it should make you careful about extending the line too far.