Notices by Jack William Bell (jackwilliambell@rustedneuron.com)

Going dark for the rest of the day and maybe some of tomorrow. Be good to yourselves, this isn't your fault.

Here's twenty Stoic quotes on handling adversity:

> https://dailystoic.com/20-stoic-adversity-quotes/

#Stoicism #philosophy #SelfCare

@icastico @guyjantic @pluralistic @GreatDismal

Being nitpicky here, but only because I was a big and vocal proponent of it back in the day…

… but the proper tag is 'Mundane Science Fiction'.

The intent was two-fold:

1. Write SF based ENTIRELY on known to work technology and science

2. Point out how we ALREADY live in a Science Fictional world

@BruceMirken @cstross

Muting for lack of reading comprehension skills.

> An excess of billionaires is destabilising politics – just as academics predicted. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/31/elon-musk-an-excess-of-billionaires-is-destabilising-politics-just-as-academics-predicted

#sociology #history #HumanCondition #EatTheRich

Some handy #C structs and macros. But I'm not going to use the name the author has for it.

> https://github.com/Psteven5/cbinc

#programming

You folks on larger instances probably don't see this, but often when somebody boosts a reply I can see the boosted reply but not the OP. (Original Post starting the conversation thread.)

This is because I am on a very small instance (mostly me) and not everything flows here. Understandable. Not a bug.

But I just discovered #Mastodon gives you a workaround: You can copy the link to the page of a post (hamburger menu, 'Open Original Page') with a right click.

Then paste it in the search box!

> Helicopter carrying Iran’s hard-line president apparently crashes in foggy, mountainous region. https://apnews.com/article/iran-helicopter-raisi-b483ba75e4339cfb0fe00c7349d023b8

TL;DR – Some officials are calling it a 'hard landing'. Currently it is unknown if there were survivors. A rescue operation is underway, but is apparently having problems with the same weather conditions that contributed to the crash.

#news #Iran #World

The prediction is for a steep drop from G5 at 09:00 - 12:00 UTC to G3 at 12:00 - 15:00 UTC. The recorded value for that same period is G4+.

So it appears we are already exceeding predictions. But there isn't enough data to say if we will get a repeat of last night where the actual values greatly exceeded predictions.

In any case the current predictions show a continued steep drop to G2 / G3 for the rest of today (UTC time). They also show the reduction continues overnight to G2 / G1.

[contd]

The operative question here: What does this mean for tonight's viewing?

Remember we are talking UTC time, so matching predictions for your local time is important. (Forex, UTC is 7 hours ahead of Pacific time. 7:00 UTC is midnight here.)

If predictions match reality this time Europe and the east coast of North America will get some Auroras tonight, but not as active as last night. The rest of North America won't see nearly as much, with a slight bump for the Pacific coast at midnight.

[contd]

However, we don't know if the predictions are correct. They certainly were off yesterday and I imagine the NOAA scientists are feverishly working the numbers to determine why.

At this point whether we'll see *anything* in North America is up in the air, since the prediction could overshoot as easily as undershoot.

I'll be watching the numbers and will report back here if anything changes.

[more to come]

#Aurora update: The latest 3 hour level recording is out and the 15:00 to 18:00 UTC value is again G4+. This greatly exceeds the G2 value predicted for the same period.

The trend here is good for Aurora viewing tonight, despite predictions of greatly reduced activity. But the only thing I can say with any confidence is that Europe will likely see something similar to last night.

I'll check back in a few hours.

[more to come]

#Aurora update: Another 3 hour level recording is out from the NOAA and it's not good news for those of us in North America hoping to see more northern lights tonight.

Although still greater than the prediction, the 18:00 to 21:00 UTC measurement is G3. If this trend continues it will be down to G2 or G1 in the six hours before full dark on the east coast of NA.

But then who knows? I'll update again in a few hours once we get another recorded level from NOAA.

#Aurora update: Another 3 hour level recording is out from the NOAA, and this one is no change from the last.

If this holds northern US states and Canada will have Auroras tonight. And David Levine @GinNGravitonic reports there was another major CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) today that could arrive here by tomorrow or Monday.

> https://mastodon.social/@GinNGravitonic/112425195819991498

Starting a new #Aurora thread for today (Saturday May 11).

Yesterday NOAA's predictions missed both the size and timing of the solar storm, with activity starting earlier and getting stronger than expected. (In fact, maxing out both scales they use.)

As of this morning NOAA has 21 hours of recorded high activity, all in the G4/G5 range. (The scale only goes to G5.)

> https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental

Here are the recorded levels as of 16:00 UTC and predictions as of 12:30 UTC today:

[contd]

@Mushroot @pluralistic

I don't like that Kagi requires a login. I understand why they have a login, otherwise they couldn't charge for their services.

But the inability to perform an anonymous search is a fail for me. I fear that, in the long run, they will change their ToS and collect/sell my search history – with that history connected to me personally – and this rules them completely out from where I stand.

This lesson in trust was hard learned; I won't forget it.

@goatsarah

> How can you have so many advantages and yet fuck up so amazingly completely?

One word: Narcissism.

I grew up with a malignant narcissist parent. I know this territory well.

I bought a new 'over the range' microwave and, although I haven't installed it yet, I plugged it in today and used it to heat something.

You know how microwaves blink the time until you set it (which I usually don't bother with)? This is the first time in my life I've run into a microwave–or any consumer electronics device–that INSISTED I set the time. It showed a, "Please press the set time button," message and refused to work until I did.

I'm sending it back if it insists I connect Wifi!

@georgetakei

Yeah, true. But it's a FRENCH tire company. That makes all the difference.

@kaia @Edent @slowbikeiain

I actually knew about this, my maternal grandmother told me about it when I was a kid; I had asked her about the six inch hatpins she kept in a box.

It made a big impression on me at the time, but mostly about how much it would hurt to have one of those jammed into me.

@chargrille

The only argument I have against this is simply the fact neither Dorsey nor Musk is that smart. I mean, they are smart enough and they might be evil geniuses in their own heads, but…

Personally I have an ingrained distaste of explanations for anything requiring epicyclic gearing and preternatural foresight. Occam's Razor and all that.

Not to mention (and apropos here) – Hanlon's Razor says Musk is dealing with some *major* Dunning Kruger action and has overestimated himself.