Notices by Jack William Bell (jackwilliambell@rustedneuron.com)

I love it when a company very deliberately produces a product which is, effectively, giving the finger to another company's product.

> DuckDuckGo Is Selling Anti Pervert Glasses That Contain Zero #AI, Cameras, or Even Electronics Whatsoever. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/duckduckgo-selling-anti-pervert-glasses

#business #biz #privacy

@ianbetteridge

After more than a hundred years of comic book and science fiction villains who are insane industrialists that hunt humans for sport or plan the destruction of the human race you might think more people would recognize one if they saw one.

Paul Krugman explains why, even though the Federal Reserve didn't recently raise rates to control inflation (which they should have), the Bond Market increased yields anyway.

> The Bond Market Doesn’t Like Bullshit. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-bond-market-doesnt-like-bullshit

> … the 30-year Treasury rate spiked and the dollar fell slightly. In plain English, this was the equivalent of bond market traders running for the exits.

And now it's FAFO time for the USA dollar. Just don't use the 'D' (Deflation) word…

#economy #markets

#bubblewatch update:

Analysis of current outstanding investment MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) debt showing huge losses (in the hundreds of billions) from 2022 to present.

> US might be sitting on a TIME BOMB!! https://albygetho.substack.com/p/us-might-be-sitting-on-a-time-bomb

> The greatest financial risk from the current #AI investment cycle is unlikely to come from a single company defaulting. Instead, it may emerge through a gradual deterioration in the credit chain that has developed around AI infrastructure.

#bubble #economy

#bubblewatch update:

Is the bubble already popping in Asia? Or is this just a preview?

> South Korean Authorities Scrambling to Save Stock Market From #AI #Bubble. https://futurism.com/future-society/south-korea-stock-panic-kopsi-kosdaq-circuit-breaker

> Across July 28 and 29, Seoul Economic Daily reports widespread panic triggered not just one but two “circuit breakers” on the Korea Exchange, a sort of automated kill switch that halts regular trading for 30 minutes so panic-stricken traders can gather their thoughts.

#markets

@eigen @jmeowmeow @lauren

I tried looking up an article for this and found little in USA newsmedia, but it was on the Independent:

> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/heritage-foundation-executive-arrest-senate-b3021616.html

And it happened July 14th, yet apparently it was not 'newsworthy' enough that I saw it before now despite the fact I scan multiple newsite RSS feeds daily for political news.

All of which? Leads one to believe the answer is, indeed, 'yes'. And the newsmedia is helping to make it so.

NOTE: If you've been thinking about trying to set up a big short when the AI bubble finally pops, this could be a good time to take a small flyer – assuming you can afford to take a loss. Because it's likely not the time yet.

I don't think there's going to be any way to predict when the market's attitude makes that sudden turn against AI stocks and, sure, this could be it. But I don't think so.

I will enjoy watching Oracle get pummeled though. So I'm hoping for that much.

Thursday 12-11 #bubblewatch

Last night Asian and futures markets were bearish on Oracle due to their disappointing earnings report and I suggested if this continued once USA markets opened this morning the malaise could spread to other tech stocks.

And … yeah…

> Nasdaq slips to one-week low as Oracle reignites AI jitters. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-slide-oracles-forecast-revives-ai-bubble-fears-2025-12-11/

This isn't the #AI #bubble popping. Yet. But the smarter investors are slowly easing their money out while it's still over-inflated.

Friday 12-12 #bubblewatch

The market rallied a bit by EOD yesterday, but that evaporated when it opened this morning, followed by tech stocks hitting two-week lows. Oracle and other #AI #bubble concerns were a big reason.

> Wall St slides as inflation worries, AI bubble fears spook investors. https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-sp-500-futures-slip-broadcom-outlook-reignites-ai-bubble-fears-2025-12-12/

We might be edging our way up to the tipping point!

(I might need to post an update today once the USA markets close.)

More:

@ChrisMayLA6 has an interesting chart showing one significant difference between the current #AI #bubble compared to both the 2000 Tech bubble and the 1989 Japan Finance bubble.

Of course this chart only includes big players with track records, which is fair. But a bit misleading for the AI bubble because the big players this time (aside from Tesla) were priced down in a way similar to IBM in previous bubbles. While smaller players are priced stupid high.

> https://zirk.us/@ChrisMayLA6/115711494979571990

Monday 12-22 #bubblewatch

Looks like tech stocks are going to end the year up. I don't think we'll see the #AI #bubbble pop in 2025.

> Wall Street climbs as tech extends rebound, focus on data. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-ahead-shortened-trading-week-2025-12-22/

That said, I think today is probably the high-water mark for the week and we'll see a drop in remaining trading days. It's been a pattern for a while now.

Tuesday 12-23 #bubblewatch

I was expecting the market to drop a bit today and tomorrow, but the 3rd quarter US gov economic data dropped last night and the market loves it. (I find the reported data rather suspect myself, but then I find everything from the government suspect these days.)

> S&P 500 nears record high as data backs Fed cut expectations. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/wall-st-futures-tick-higher-ahead-gdp-data-2025-12-23/

Tuesday 1-6 #bubblewatch

Stolen oil fever still pushing market values high, but today there is unwarranted optimism about the upcoming jobs report as well.

> Tech, healthcare extend Wall St rally in jobs-report week; Dow at record high. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-muted-investors-pause-after-rally-2026-01-06/

> "… you've got a new sense of optimism in the market ... this is a week where we're going to get real economic data for the first time in months and that's going to help clear out some of the fog …"

Wednesday 1-7 #bubblewatch

The USA jobs report came out today and … not glowing. In fact indications of a downturn. Given my concerns about government data from this administration I'm wondering if they massaged those numbers from even worse ones.

In any case the market REALLY wants to stay optimistic. I can't help but feel like it's a perky gym worker trying to rally an exhausted cardio class.

> S&P 500, Nasdaq climb on tech boost, investors take labor data in stride. https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-futures-inch-lower-after-rally-labor-data-focus-2026-01-07/

Friday 1-9 #bubblewatch

And (some) tech stocks come roaring back.

> S&P 500 hits record high as chipmakers lead broad gains. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-ahead-crucial-jobs-report-tariff-ruling-2026-01-09/

This back and forth, up and down, is so headspinning. It's probably best to think of it as an example of a confused market searching for stability, but instead lurching back and forth between different industries and market segments. This is *not* a stable market.

Monday 1-12 #bubblewatch

The market is up a bit today, going against the common wisdom that investigating Fed Chair Powell should be of concern. I've seen some people suggesting this is because Big Tech, like Real Estate, loves lower interest rates because they depend so heavily on debt for operations.

You will note the Financial sector isn't doing as well – they know the Fed needs to be independent of the Administration.

> Wall Street indexes gain with tech, Walmart. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/wall-st-futures-slip-worries-over-fed-independence-financial-stocks-slide-2026-01-12/

Grrr. Fixing the thread again!

Wednesday 1-14 #bubblewatch

Most market sectors recovered from yesterday's declines, with the exception of Financial and Tech. The Financial losses have a clear reason (see up-thread), but Tech stock valuations wouldn't be affected by that. For now I'm assuming it's more early #AI #bubble investors moving their profits to safer investments, like arms manufacturers.

> Wall St skids after mixed results from big banks; tech stocks retreat. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-decline-ahead-big-bank-earnings-2026-01-14/

Thursday 1-15 #bubblewatch

And today Finance and Tech sectors are recovering as well. In the case of Tech, this is mostly because chipmakers are predicting record profits this year because of #AI. So it's really just more #bubble talk and some segment of the market is still believing it.

> Wall Street rebounds as banks gain following results; chips rally with TSMC. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-tsmc-sparks-semiconductor-rally-financial-earnings-deck-2026-01-15/

Friday 1-16 #bubblewatch

Mixed trading today. Tech values still buoyed by chipmaker profit predictions … and chipmaker profit predictions still based on assuming the #AI #bubble keeps expanding.

Anyone who thinks the market is always rational has a hole in their head.

> Chip stocks lift S&P 500 in volatile trading ahead of long weekend. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-chipmakers-advance-end-choppy-week-2026-01-16/

So, first two things: The dollar is taking a bath and USA stock futures (to be settled tomorrow morning) are tanking.

This doesn't bode well for the market tomorrow, but could lead to bargain hunting driving prices back up. HOWEVER…

However, USA Treasury bonds have been doing badly lately, with rising yields and not enough takers. And now we have European countries threatening to pull their money out of the USA bond market.

This is bad. This is really bad.

[contd]