Notices by Georgia Election Data Update (gaelectionupdate@theatl.social)

Our record-breaking final #Georgia #EarlyVote turnout is 285,771 (so far), which is the bar chart on the very right of the chart in the attached image.

Core #Atlanta 🔵 metro counties over-performed and suburban/exurban underperformed, relative to previous days.

Total turnout is 3,995,938 / 55.2% turnout.

As of yesterday, the urban turnout (38.2%) has just about caught up with suburban (40.7%) and rural (41.7%) turnout, after some considerable deficits early in the early voting cycle.

And, the TargetSmart modeled party as of yesterday showed a delta between 🔵 Dems and 🔴 Republicans is down to 3.3 pct pt, LOWER than 2020's 5.5 pct pt difference.

I'd expect with today's EV turnout, those figures would continue to narrow to 🔵 's advantage.

There about 100k mail-in ballots left to return in GA, which will be rolling in from now until 11/5. Absentee voters can also vote in-person in lieu of returning their paper ballot.

A couple of less-reliable pollsters (image attached) also indicate that #Harris' momentum has shifted favorable in the past couple of days. Ultimately, A lot is counting on independent voters - whose preferences may determine the outcome of this race in Georgia.

🗺️ As promised, attached are maps of Early Voting from Days 1 through 3 by County, and last partisan ballot pulled - or no ballot.

The alt text contains a CSV excerpt of the data contained in the maps.

Some thoughts and findings:

📐 If we apply the count of early voters without previous partisan primary preferences ("No Party") and multiply that count by the proportion of Biden vs. Trump in 2020, we end up effectively even at 80k votes for Republicans and 79k votes for Democrats.

Using the 2020 vote totals is a bit crude, but it lets us identify general directionality as to the impact of these "No Party" voters.

📍 The maps clearly show turnout in traditionally GOP counties in the northern suburbs, supporting the hypothesis that GOP early vote advocacy efforts are motivating those voters to vote early instead of at Election Day.

🔵 Among all active voters, 7.9% and 7.5% with Dem preferences in Dekalb and Fulton Counties (Dem strongholds) have voted.

🔴 Among all active voters, 7.4% and 9.2% with GOP preferences in Cherokee and Forsyth Counties (GOP strongholds).

All this goes to say - at least in early vote, this race is ridiculously even.

👀 Over the next few days, I'll be on the lookout for a turnout breakout by Dems or the GOP to see if there are clearer signals on directionality.

🗳️ Again, expect to see a massive revived GOTV effort starting next week and not letting up until Nov 5th.

#georgia
#elections
#election2024
#harris
#EarlyVote

One bit of news from AJC politics this morning:

While early voting has historically leaned 🔵 Democrat, a push by 🔴 Republicans to early vote may upset that trend.

👀 While we don't have registered parties in Georgia, we do have partisan primaries - this data may be insightful to see if the proportion of Democratic primary voters vs Republican primary voters has changed (so far) in 2024, compared to 2020.

I'll share my findings later today!