County,NoPartisanCount FULTON,20975 GWINNETT,13543 COBB,11529 DEKALB,9780 FORSYTH,5932 CHATHAM,4898 CHEROKEE,4528 HENRY,4438 CLAYTON,3701 HALL,3520 HOUSTON,3292 COWETA,3109 MUSCOGEE,2781 COLUMBIA,2685 FAYETTE,2457 PAULDING,2378 DOUGLAS,2313 LOWNDES,1818 WALTON,1637 GLYNN,1619 RICHMOND,1600 NEWTON,1518 CATOOSA,1475 FLOYD,1471 BIBB,1410 BARROW,1410 JACKSON,1402 BARTOW,1387 CARROLL,1316 BRYAN,1240 EFFINGHAM,1179 ROCKDALE,1147 SPALDING,975 THOMAS,924 CAMDEN,911 LIBERTY,891 WHITFIELD,883 GORDON,877 BULLOCH,775 DAWSON,739 CLARKE,738 TROUP,723 POLK,704 OCONEE,690 MURRAY,685 LUMPKIN,646 DOUGHERTY,636 HARRIS,618 HABERSHAM,611 STEPHENS,576 WHITE,568 UNION,556 FANNIN,550 TIFT,541 COLQUITT,537 BALDWIN,531 BUTTS,510 PEACH,498 WARE,491 GILMER,489 PICKENS,487 MONROE,487 LEE,487 JONES,477 WALKER,456 MADISON,451 HART,448 UPSON,433 WAYNE,432 PUTNAM,425 LAURENS,405 GREENE,391 DECATUR,387 BANKS,380 HARALSON,369 PIKE,354 FRANKLIN,339 TOWNS,327 COFFEE,324 MORGAN,324 PIERCE,320 GRADY,314 RABUN,313 LAMAR,309 SUMTER,297 CRISP,292 CHATTOOGA,287 COOK,281 BEN HILL,268 BRANTLEY,267 MERIWETHER,264 DADE,254 TOOMBS,252 BERRIEN,246 JASPER,244 LONG,243 MCDUFFIE,226 BURKE,216 OGLETHORPE,204 ELBERT,199 BROOKS,192 BLECKLEY,192 DODGE,192 CRAWFORD,190 MCINTOSH,168 SCREVEN,165 WORTH,164 EMANUEL,161 MITCHELL,157 WASHINGTON,151 HEARD,140 BACON,139 JEFF DAVIS,135 CHARLTON,134 TATTNALL,128 EVANS,127 CANDLER,116 APPLING,115 TAYLOR,110 PULASKI,105 TURNER,105 WILKES,101 MACON,99 EARLY,99 IRWIN,95 SEMINOLE,93

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Georgia Election Data Update (gaelectionupdate@theatl.social)'s status on Saturday, 19-Oct-2024 11:37:53 JST

🗺️ As promised, attached are maps of Early Voting from Days 1 through 3 by County, and last partisan ballot pulled - or no ballot.

The alt text contains a CSV excerpt of the data contained in the maps.

Some thoughts and findings:

📐 If we apply the count of early voters without previous partisan primary preferences ("No Party") and multiply that count by the proportion of Biden vs. Trump in 2020, we end up effectively even at 80k votes for Republicans and 79k votes for Democrats.

Using the 2020 vote totals is a bit crude, but it lets us identify general directionality as to the impact of these "No Party" voters.

📍 The maps clearly show turnout in traditionally GOP counties in the northern suburbs, supporting the hypothesis that GOP early vote advocacy efforts are motivating those voters to vote early instead of at Election Day.

🔵 Among all active voters, 7.9% and 7.5% with Dem preferences in Dekalb and Fulton Counties (Dem strongholds) have voted.

🔴 Among all active voters, 7.4% and 9.2% with GOP preferences in Cherokee and Forsyth Counties (GOP strongholds).

All this goes to say - at least in early vote, this race is ridiculously even.

👀 Over the next few days, I'll be on the lookout for a turnout breakout by Dems or the GOP to see if there are clearer signals on directionality.

🗳️ Again, expect to see a massive revived GOTV effort starting next week and not letting up until Nov 5th.

#georgia
#elections
#election2024
#harris
#EarlyVote

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