Georgia Election Data Update🗺️ As promised, attached are maps of Early Voting from Days 1 through 3 by County, and last partisan ballot pulled - or no ballot.
The alt text contains a CSV excerpt of the data contained in the maps.
Some thoughts and findings:
📐 If we apply the count of early voters without previous partisan primary preferences ("No Party") and multiply that count by the proportion of Biden vs. Trump in 2020, we end up effectively even at 80k votes for Republicans and 79k votes for Democrats.
Using the 2020 vote totals is a bit crude, but it lets us identify general directionality as to the impact of these "No Party" voters.
📍 The maps clearly show turnout in traditionally GOP counties in the northern suburbs, supporting the hypothesis that GOP early vote advocacy efforts are motivating those voters to vote early instead of at Election Day.
🔵 Among all active voters, 7.9% and 7.5% with Dem preferences in Dekalb and Fulton Counties (Dem strongholds) have voted.
🔴 Among all active voters, 7.4% and 9.2% with GOP preferences in Cherokee and Forsyth Counties (GOP strongholds).
All this goes to say - at least in early vote, this race is ridiculously even.
👀 Over the next few days, I'll be on the lookout for a turnout breakout by Dems or the GOP to see if there are clearer signals on directionality.
🗳️ Again, expect to see a massive revived GOTV effort starting next week and not letting up until Nov 5th.
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