County,RepCount FULTON,21008 GWINNETT,18964 COBB,21792 DEKALB,6616 FORSYTH,15103 CHATHAM,7399 CHEROKEE,14037 HENRY,6369 CLAYTON,1709 HALL,11872 HOUSTON,7158 COWETA,8373 MUSCOGEE,4090 COLUMBIA,6842 FAYETTE,6106 PAULDING,6333 DOUGLAS,3384 LOWNDES,3348 WALTON,5381 GLYNN,4825 RICHMOND,2218 NEWTON,2205 CATOOSA,4472 FLOYD,4700 BIBB,2110 BARROW,3729 JACKSON,4706 BARTOW,4268 CARROLL,3979 BRYAN,2617 EFFINGHAM,2908 ROCKDALE,1144 SPALDING,2890 THOMAS,2622 CAMDEN,2182 LIBERTY,993 WHITFIELD,3215 GORDON,2928 BULLOCH,2155 DAWSON,2802 CLARKE,1155 TROUP,2227 POLK,2753 OCONEE,3076 MURRAY,2481 LUMPKIN,2683 DOUGHERTY,803 HARRIS,2070 HABERSHAM,2878 STEPHENS,2026 WHITE,2514 UNION,2531 FANNIN,1918 TIFT,1711 COLQUITT,1528 BALDWIN,1897 BUTTS,1837 PEACH,1290 WARE,1260 GILMER,2066 PICKENS,1930 MONROE,2058 LEE,1630 JONES,1302 WALKER,1852 MADISON,1788 HART,1927 UPSON,1788 WAYNE,1737 PUTNAM,1615 LAURENS,1265 GREENE,1992 DECATUR,923 BANKS,1426 HARALSON,1751 PIKE,1636 FRANKLIN,1643 TOWNS,1687 COFFEE,1495 MORGAN,1783 PIERCE,1478 GRADY,1097 RABUN,1831 LAMAR,1171 SUMTER,758 CRISP,966 CHATTOOGA,1254 COOK,840 BEN HILL,913 BRANTLEY,1162 MERIWETHER,919 DADE,1103 TOOMBS,1068 BERRIEN,889 JASPER,798 LONG,459 MCDUFFIE,1023 BURKE,539 OGLETHORPE,866 ELBERT,840 BROOKS,395 BLECKLEY,900 DODGE,832 CRAWFORD,615 MCINTOSH,928 SCREVEN,572 WORTH,838 EMANUEL,707 MITCHELL,584 WASHINGTON,421 HEARD,621 BACON,839 JEFF DAVIS,494 CHARLTON,531 TATTNALL,627 EVANS,435 CANDLER,596 APPLING,836 TAYLOR,485 PULASKI,794 TURNER,531

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Georgia Election Data Update (gaelectionupdate@theatl.social)'s status on Saturday, 19-Oct-2024 11:37:53 JST

🗺️ As promised, attached are maps of Early Voting from Days 1 through 3 by County, and last partisan ballot pulled - or no ballot.

The alt text contains a CSV excerpt of the data contained in the maps.

Some thoughts and findings:

📐 If we apply the count of early voters without previous partisan primary preferences ("No Party") and multiply that count by the proportion of Biden vs. Trump in 2020, we end up effectively even at 80k votes for Republicans and 79k votes for Democrats.

Using the 2020 vote totals is a bit crude, but it lets us identify general directionality as to the impact of these "No Party" voters.

📍 The maps clearly show turnout in traditionally GOP counties in the northern suburbs, supporting the hypothesis that GOP early vote advocacy efforts are motivating those voters to vote early instead of at Election Day.

🔵 Among all active voters, 7.9% and 7.5% with Dem preferences in Dekalb and Fulton Counties (Dem strongholds) have voted.

🔴 Among all active voters, 7.4% and 9.2% with GOP preferences in Cherokee and Forsyth Counties (GOP strongholds).

All this goes to say - at least in early vote, this race is ridiculously even.

👀 Over the next few days, I'll be on the lookout for a turnout breakout by Dems or the GOP to see if there are clearer signals on directionality.

🗳️ Again, expect to see a massive revived GOTV effort starting next week and not letting up until Nov 5th.

#georgia
#elections
#election2024
#harris
#EarlyVote

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