County,DemCount FULTON,56751 GWINNETT,24170 COBB,24835 DEKALB,37701 FORSYTH,3820 CHATHAM,9381 CHEROKEE,3352 HENRY,11790 CLAYTON,14970 HALL,2460 HOUSTON,4514 COWETA,2921 MUSCOGEE,7164 COLUMBIA,2661 FAYETTE,5179 PAULDING,2842 DOUGLAS,6895 LOWNDES,2356 WALTON,1342 GLYNN,1882 RICHMOND,6682 NEWTON,3748 CATOOSA,758 FLOYD,1467 BIBB,4032 BARROW,998 JACKSON,705 BARTOW,883 CARROLL,1402 BRYAN,838 EFFINGHAM,700 ROCKDALE,5197 SPALDING,1665 THOMAS,1148 CAMDEN,751 LIBERTY,2487 WHITFIELD,561 GORDON,395 BULLOCH,879 DAWSON,339 CLARKE,2657 TROUP,965 POLK,463 OCONEE,727 MURRAY,159 LUMPKIN,410 DOUGHERTY,2944 HARRIS,648 HABERSHAM,323 STEPHENS,263 WHITE,269 UNION,394 FANNIN,272 TIFT,611 COLQUITT,399 BALDWIN,1238 BUTTS,509 PEACH,945 WARE,637 GILMER,266 PICKENS,222 MONROE,635 LEE,562 JONES,599 WALKER,274 MADISON,332 HART,346 UPSON,545 WAYNE,359 PUTNAM,375 LAURENS,577 GREENE,499 DECATUR,736 BANKS,94 HARALSON,144 PIKE,174 FRANKLIN,115 TOWNS,234 COFFEE,415 MORGAN,468 PIERCE,108 GRADY,433 RABUN,262 LAMAR,376 SUMTER,711 CRISP,451 CHATTOOGA,184 COOK,254 BEN HILL,494 BRANTLEY,96 MERIWETHER,404 DADE,149 TOOMBS,245 BERRIEN,110 JASPER,159 LONG,293 MCDUFFIE,397 BURKE,535 OGLETHORPE,293 ELBERT,459 BROOKS,272 BLECKLEY,150 DODGE,212 CRAWFORD,273 MCINTOSH,348 SCREVEN,412 WORTH,275 EMANUEL,261 MITCHELL,416 WASHINGTON,869 HEARD,80 BACON,62 JEFF DAVIS,117 CHARLTON,117 TATTNALL,191 EVANS,130 CANDLER,144 APPLING,200 TAYLOR,189 PULASKI,142 TURNER,248 WILKES,335 MACON,464 EARLY,285 IRWIN,79 SEMINOLE,129 LANIER,101

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Georgia Election Data Update (gaelectionupdate@theatl.social)'s status on Saturday, 19-Oct-2024 11:37:53 JST

🗺️ As promised, attached are maps of Early Voting from Days 1 through 3 by County, and last partisan ballot pulled - or no ballot.

The alt text contains a CSV excerpt of the data contained in the maps.

Some thoughts and findings:

📐 If we apply the count of early voters without previous partisan primary preferences ("No Party") and multiply that count by the proportion of Biden vs. Trump in 2020, we end up effectively even at 80k votes for Republicans and 79k votes for Democrats.

Using the 2020 vote totals is a bit crude, but it lets us identify general directionality as to the impact of these "No Party" voters.

📍 The maps clearly show turnout in traditionally GOP counties in the northern suburbs, supporting the hypothesis that GOP early vote advocacy efforts are motivating those voters to vote early instead of at Election Day.

🔵 Among all active voters, 7.9% and 7.5% with Dem preferences in Dekalb and Fulton Counties (Dem strongholds) have voted.

🔴 Among all active voters, 7.4% and 9.2% with GOP preferences in Cherokee and Forsyth Counties (GOP strongholds).

All this goes to say - at least in early vote, this race is ridiculously even.

👀 Over the next few days, I'll be on the lookout for a turnout breakout by Dems or the GOP to see if there are clearer signals on directionality.

🗳️ Again, expect to see a massive revived GOTV effort starting next week and not letting up until Nov 5th.

#georgia
#elections
#election2024
#harris
#EarlyVote

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