Notices by Isaac Ji Kuo (isaackuo@spacey.space)

@mattblaze Absolutely true!

As you say, it's about more than an algae bloom.

Under any vaguely normal POTUS, this would just be some minor side story under the helm of some obscure bureaucrat you've never heard of. The POTUS has a thousand more important things to deal with. Even this one.

The fact that this is even a POTUS thing at all is a stinging self-own indictment of the POTUS's incapacities and worthlessness in general.

@jeffowski It implies that we shouldn't expect most people to have an emotional state reflective of perceiving reality accurately.

We should expect this emotional state to be reflective of what would be most suitable for propagating genetic lineage. Perhaps prioritizing things like "fitting in", and "being stupidly hopeful that one's children will face a better lot".

@jeffowski The normative calibration of a homo sapiens's emotional state is based on what would be most likely to propagate genetic lineage, not what was most perceptive of reality.

@CptSuperlative Not only is this an abhorent monstrous war crime, it also betrays a deep willful ignorance.

Burqas? In Iran? I'm not even an expert in the region, and I know the difference between Iran and Afghanistan.

@Infoseepage @SoftwareTheron @WellsiteGeo The problem is that drug smugglers also know about using sail boats, so there's already a massive infrastructure of coast guard patrols detecting, tracking, and intercepting them.

But they have a zero percent success rate in intercepting submarine narco subs. Zero percent.

And Iran has midget subs that are more sophisticated than the relative junk drug smugglers use.

@Infoseepage @SoftwareTheron @WellsiteGeo The reason drug smugglers don't just switch to true subs is that they are a lot more expensive to operate. Their economics are such that they make more money with semi-submersibles even if they regularly get caught.

But Iran has a literal nation-state military budget. They have already spent a considerable amount of time, effort, and expertise on developing credible submarines.

@Infoseepage @SoftwareTheron @WellsiteGeo (And true submarine narco subs aren't going to deliver 100%. We have no idea how many of them sank with total loss of crew and cargo, but ... based on real life submarine experience ... the number is likely high.)

@SoftwareTheron @Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo In any case, I don't really see a compelling case to try delivery by truck, when delivery by some sort of submersible is all around easier and less risky.

@Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo With drug smuggling, it's okay if lots of attempts get detected. It's just part of the cost of doing business. It's not going to make the DEA go after you any harder or softer either way.

But if nuclear materials get detected, it becomes a big international ... problem. It's the sort of thing that will result in a humongous international coalition regime change invasion.

The risk/reward calculus is totally different.

@SoftwareTheron @Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo You have a point there.

My mind did not go there, because I don't foresee Iran facing an existential threat.

This could change, of course, and also I may simply not be seeing an existential threat that's already out there.

@Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo It's not so easy to deliver a "nuke" or sizable dirty bomb via truck. Trying to deliver the components/materials to a suitable staging point on land is likely to get detected unless a submarine is used, and at that point it is much easier to simply detonate the device in a harbor. No need for a risky land based staging point.

It's different for drug smuggling.

@cstross @Infoseepage @fnordius @nyrath I wasn't describing a hovering drone, but a parked drone. It's parked on the deck next to the ladder.

If visibility is a problem, you can include flashing lights and/or audible warnings telling anyone nearby to stay away.

What is a human guarding the ladder going to do differently?

@Infoseepage @fnordius @nyrath @cstross Why can't a drone guard the ladder afterward?

One tactic the Ukrainians have mastered is to simply park a drone somewhere and observe with its camera. If a Russian soldier walks by, they detonate the warhead.

Crude, but effective.

If someone gets too close to the ladder, boom.

@cstross @Infoseepage @fnordius @nyrath Uhh ... yes? And?

Marines seizing a ship are armed with deadly weapons, including explosive grenades.

How is a human supposed to guard the ladder, except by the threat of deadly force? Same difference.

@Infoseepage @fnordius @nyrath @cstross Seriously, this looks absolutely ridiculous. Remember that this jet pack is stupendously loud, and a much quieter drone could carry a ladder instead.

Or if it has to be a person, an electric paramotor is cheap and quiet, and it doesn't involve wearing heavy bulky arm thrusters. Heck, they're cheap enough that the entire team can assault the target from the air, approaching silently.

@cstross @Infoseepage @nyrath Well yeah, that is a VERY expensive toy.

I'm gonna be charitable to those air ambulance people that they know it's stupid but they just really want to fly around in jet packs. I mean ... I can't blame them. But also I'd rather not die that way.

(The sane alternative involves a helicopter equipped with a winch.)

@cstross @Infoseepage @nyrath Okay, but ... helicopter with a winch is still better? By the time you're suited up, the helicopter could have already dropped off one or more paramedics (who don't need to be trained on flying a jet suit).

@cstross @Infoseepage @nyrath A helipad is not a big investment. It can be nothing more than a square of concrete. Even a small parking lot is much bigger.

It is expensive to have a helicopter and pilot on call, of course. But alternatives may be false economies due to the various costs of doing things differently from standard methods.

That said, they do make man-lifting multi-rotors, which would be orders of magnitude less expensive than a jet pack. You need a qualified drone pilot on call,

@cstross @Infoseepage @nyrath I dunno ... I don't know about a jet hacked together from a turbocharger, but I do know there are tiny jet engines and they're not very good.

I think the main problem with them is that they are horribly fuel inefficient, so they don't have much endurance or range. So they're mostly limited to being expensive toys.

@Infoseepage @cstross @nyrath Jet powered drones cost many times as much, which make them much less affordable compared to APKWS which just use cheap rocket motors.

As it is, a plain Shahed with no anti-ship guidance already costs about the same as an APKWS. A Shahed type drone with an anti-ship guidance system and jet engine will cost a lot more than an APKWS.

And like I said, APKWS itself is a lot more expensive than interceptor drones developed by Ukraine.