@leobm@noahm@fsinn I don't think it will be a single country that fills the gap. Russia is too weakened. China is too untrusted, and rightfully so.
But Canada? Australia? France? There are countries which are pretty easy sell partners to transition to, from unstable USA. None of them are "big" enough to be 1-for-1 replacements, but that's arguably a good thing.
Under any vaguely normal POTUS, this would just be some minor side story under the helm of some obscure bureaucrat you've never heard of. The POTUS has a thousand more important things to deal with. Even this one.
The fact that this is even a POTUS thing at all is a stinging self-own indictment of the POTUS's incapacities and worthlessness in general.
@jeffowski It implies that we shouldn't expect most people to have an emotional state reflective of perceiving reality accurately.
We should expect this emotional state to be reflective of what would be most suitable for propagating genetic lineage. Perhaps prioritizing things like "fitting in", and "being stupidly hopeful that one's children will face a better lot".
@jeffowski The normative calibration of a homo sapiens's emotional state is based on what would be most likely to propagate genetic lineage, not what was most perceptive of reality.
@Infoseepage@SoftwareTheron@WellsiteGeo The problem is that drug smugglers also know about using sail boats, so there's already a massive infrastructure of coast guard patrols detecting, tracking, and intercepting them.
But they have a zero percent success rate in intercepting submarine narco subs. Zero percent.
And Iran has midget subs that are more sophisticated than the relative junk drug smugglers use.
@Infoseepage@SoftwareTheron@WellsiteGeo The reason drug smugglers don't just switch to true subs is that they are a lot more expensive to operate. Their economics are such that they make more money with semi-submersibles even if they regularly get caught.
But Iran has a literal nation-state military budget. They have already spent a considerable amount of time, effort, and expertise on developing credible submarines.
@Infoseepage@SoftwareTheron@WellsiteGeo (And true submarine narco subs aren't going to deliver 100%. We have no idea how many of them sank with total loss of crew and cargo, but ... based on real life submarine experience ... the number is likely high.)
@SoftwareTheron@Infoseepage@WellsiteGeo In any case, I don't really see a compelling case to try delivery by truck, when delivery by some sort of submersible is all around easier and less risky.
@Infoseepage@WellsiteGeo With drug smuggling, it's okay if lots of attempts get detected. It's just part of the cost of doing business. It's not going to make the DEA go after you any harder or softer either way.
But if nuclear materials get detected, it becomes a big international ... problem. It's the sort of thing that will result in a humongous international coalition regime change invasion.
@Infoseepage@WellsiteGeo It's not so easy to deliver a "nuke" or sizable dirty bomb via truck. Trying to deliver the components/materials to a suitable staging point on land is likely to get detected unless a submarine is used, and at that point it is much easier to simply detonate the device in a harbor. No need for a risky land based staging point.
One tactic the Ukrainians have mastered is to simply park a drone somewhere and observe with its camera. If a Russian soldier walks by, they detonate the warhead.
@Infoseepage@fnordius@nyrath@cstross Seriously, this looks absolutely ridiculous. Remember that this jet pack is stupendously loud, and a much quieter drone could carry a ladder instead.
Or if it has to be a person, an electric paramotor is cheap and quiet, and it doesn't involve wearing heavy bulky arm thrusters. Heck, they're cheap enough that the entire team can assault the target from the air, approaching silently.