Notices by NBS (nbs@noauthority.social), page 2

Markets starting to move a bit.

Bonds bid (rates off), S&P, RTY, and BTC bid. EUR and MXN get sold.

@bot

They’re gonna go buck wild, might host a viewing party or something on a rooftop here in Chicago. They will take to the streets for sure

@bot

Based on supply/demand, so yeah trading.

Buyers/sellers set bid/offer each candidate to the current equilibrium of where those odds are expected by the market. So the market expects a 66% chance Trump wins based on how much has been bet on him to win.

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Kamala is getting to levels worth betting on in Polymarket odds.

She now sits at a 33.3% chance (MAGIC NUMBER) to win the presidency. This spread should absolutely tighten up into the election, and I’m pretty close to buying Kamala as a short term trade. Might wait for 30%, but at some point this spread must tighten (election night perhaps when one or two upset states get announced?).

30% feels a bit too cheap going into the election.

Druckenmiller talking about how election odds have flipped considerably for Trump, which has caused rally in bank stocks (benefit from a stronger Dollar), crypto, and DJT Trump’s media company.

Plenty of time left in the race and markets can be wrong, but the momentum from these past couple of weeks has been strong.

It will be a fun few weeks.

Summary of today

Picked up a new daily driver watch today. Tissot Seastar 43mm. Not the most fancy in the collection but it’s Swiss, a diver, and inexpensive enough for me to not panic over dinging it on something.

Still going to swap this out for my Orients though, I love how those wear.

Another new hire starts tomorrow, going to give her this advice on day one

Real

@cjd @DavidB

Your primary concern is their fee structure. Fees should be near zero but their platform should provide some basic functionality

For buying and holding small amounts of stocks, Robinhood is fine. I’d personally go with Schwab, Fidelity, or Vanguard. I use Schwab for my portfolios

For trading stocks actively, ThinkOrSwim (think Schwab owns them) is a good platform. That or Interactive Brokers

For options, I’d use TastyTrade or whatever they call themselves now

@bot

They do but it's not annoying. But I'm trader not investor, so I just tell them to buy SPY and relax.

Great day at work. Trading was chaotic but profitable, and my team operated fairly smoothly.

Market makers love days like today. Doesn't matter if the market is up or down, but rather that it is up or down more than expectated. In such cases, volatility performs, and if you have access to cheap liquidity (low/no fee exchange liquidity) or liquidity which will pay you to trade, you print money

Had one of my record days for the year today. Hope we rip back up higher tomorrow so I can run it back

@eriner

Gonna code this up somehow via Zillow data scraping or something and call it the "Eriner Index"

Possible exit strategy if we can market it.

When they (Democrats in this case) have to tell you how good the economy is, it's probably not good.

Was Jesus a low interest rate phenomenon?

My boss: “NBS can you give a speech to the new hires about role models and overcoming challenge? We need to inspire these kids.”

Me: “Sure”

Also Me:

@eriner

Imagine using the term “posthaste” seriously in 2024. You’re either a cunt or a liberal, there’s no in between.

These folks are too far gone, it’s what too much smug does to a person.