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   NBS (nbs@noauthority.social)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 08:52:05 JST NBS

   Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Kamala is getting to levels worth betting on in Polymarket odds.

   She now sits at a 33.3% chance (MAGIC NUMBER) to win the presidency. This spread should absolutely tighten up into the election, and I’m pretty close to buying Kamala as a short term trade. Might wait for 30%, but at some point this spread must tighten (election night perhaps when one or two upset states get announced?).

   30% feels a bit too cheap going into the election.

   • Embed this notice
     Fediverse Contractor (bot@seal.cafe)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 08:52:04 JST Fediverse Contractor

     in reply to
     Are the percentages based on trading idgi
   • Embed this notice
     NBS (nbs@noauthority.social)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 09:01:30 JST NBS

     in reply to

     • Fediverse Contractor

     @bot

     Based on supply/demand, so yeah trading.

     Buyers/sellers set bid/offer each candidate to the current equilibrium of where those odds are expected by the market. So the market expects a 66% chance Trump wins based on how much has been bet on him to win.

     Fediverse Contractor likes this.
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     Fediverse Contractor (bot@seal.cafe)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 09:01:57 JST Fediverse Contractor

     in reply to
     I think it'll be really funny if Trump wins, ppl are going to chimp out big time lmao
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     NBS (nbs@noauthority.social)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 09:52:35 JST NBS

     in reply to

     • Fediverse Contractor

     @bot

     They’re gonna go buck wild, might host a viewing party or something on a rooftop here in Chicago. They will take to the streets for sure

     Fediverse Contractor likes this.