This doesn't square with a recent interview between Paul Krugman and Paul Kedrosky.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-with-paul-kedrosky
My personal paid work life included 15 years doing new technology development for semiconductor devices-- 10 development cycles for the chemical processes making the actual silicon chips starting on a bare silicon wafer through gold plating on the back before sending off to packaging.
Given that experience and with the ways in which excessive heat 24x7 as with over-clocking damages, I'm very inclined to believe Kedrosky's take that chips burn-out before they become obsolescent. The explanation in the link starts about 3/8 down the transcript with:
"Kedrosky: Yeah that’s really important because there’s this idea that the reason why this is a warehouse of bananas—or whatever your favorite fruit is in this context—is due to the pace of change in technology."