Notices by Emeritus Prof Christopher May (chrismayla6@zirk.us)

The problem with historical myopia is it means you are taken by surprise when things happen that have been part of regional security calculations for years/decades.

As Arshin Adib-Moghaddam (SOAS) points out, Iran has been claiming sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, as well as threatening to close passage through the Strait, so no-one should have been surprised that under direct attack it would do that very thing!

#Iran #politics #shipping

https://theconversation.com/iran-has-been-threatening-to-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-for-years-its-a-key-part-of-tehrans-defence-strategy-279237

It seems the Israeli Defence Forces always thought that there was little if any chance that aerial attacks on Iran would result in regime change... and they told Benjamin Netanyahu so, which leaves one wondering what were Israeli's real war aims - just more scorched earth attrition?

The fact the the Tangerine Tyrant is finding it difficult to figure out what the US war aims were/are (although here Big Oil might have the answer), might suggest he's been played.

#Iran #politics
h/t FT

The Iranian children killed in the airstrike on the Shajareh Tayyebeh primary school early on in the US/Israeli assault on Iran were not as the popular trope increasingly has it 'killed by AI' but rather were killed by years & years of lazy & inaccurate bureaucracy; hiding behind AI allows the real culprit(s) to enjoy impunity from an atrocity & likely war crime.

Kevin Baker's detailed exploration of what was behind the airstrike is a long read but worth it!

#iran
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/mar/26/ai-got-the-blame-for-the-iran-school-bombing-the-truth-is-far-more-worrying

In San Francisco last week a jury found Elon Musk guilty of securities fraud relating to tweets during the purchase of what was then Twitter.

In the US, if the Govt. is not interested in prosecuting such investment frauds, shareholders can take private action (as they have).

While of little financial consequence to Musk the likely demand of $2bn damages will be interesting to watch.

Another lawsuit has yet to conclude but both suggest that investors have had enough of Musk.

#ElonMusk
h/t FT

Well, you will not be surprised to find out that the Tangerine Tyrant has threatened the EU with constraints on supplies of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from the USA (now that global supply is constricted by the US/Israeli attack(s) on Iran), if they fail to pass the delayed EU/US trade deal without amendments.

So having delayed the ratification with his threats to Greenland, Trump is now using his disruption of LNG markets to drive his trade agenda.

Once a bully...

#Trump #EU #LNG
h/t FT

Meanwhile in France the Left has had a good weekend, winning the Mayoralties of Paris & Marseille with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) not doing as well as they hoped (and other feared).

How this plays out into the Presidential election is less clear, but it certainly suggests Le Pen is not necessarily the front-runner that many (most obviously on the Right) have been declaring.

#France #democracy #politics

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/22/paris-mayoral-race-socialist-emmanuel-gregoire-projected-to-win

The appeal of Palantir to the Civil Service is clear; it offers workable (and working) IT 'solutions' in an environment where too often IT projects have failed to deliver, but the problems with Palantir are two fold:

Its links to the Far Right (Peter Thiel is clearly an anti-democrat), leading to concerns about the firm being in control of so much UK vital data;

But if it wasn't Palantir, putting the state into hock with a large single provider is in itself ill-advised.

#palantir #politics

How do we know Zack Polanski is gaining traction for the Green Party of England & Wales?

Because not only are political satire shows trying to find ways to ridicule him, the Right press is no longer ignoring him but actively trying to smear & ridicule him.

While in many ways I was glad Caroline Lucas didn't have to put up with this so much (though she hardly escaped entirely), in the mixed up world of UK politics, targeting Polanski is a back-handed complement from power!

#politics #greens

As Rachel Reeves (finally) swings behind an explicit statement that Brexit has cost the UK around 8% of GDP, we might ask what that looks like:

It equals around £224bn a year (in 2025), which given the UK's tax burden of around 35% is £78bn in lost tax revenue a year.

So if you wondering why the public sector is under-funded, while a continuing austerity logic is always in play, this lost tax income for the state is also contributing to budget shortfalls.

#Brexit #politics
h/t Observer

If you are sitting in the UK, looking across at the Tangerine Tyrant's bypassing of democratic scrutiny by using a wide range of executive orders, and thinking 'well thank god that won't happen here'.... think again.

As @davidallengreen points out, an incoming illiberal or autocratic leader can use differently named but similarly functioning aspects of the British (unwritten) constitution to do pretty much the same.

You have been warned!

#politics #constitution #UK
https://theemptycity.com/blog/2026/03/the-prospect-of-executive-orders-being-used-by-an-incoming-illiberal-government/

Supporters of Labour who hope an Angela Rayner led party would 'return' to the party's Left roots, might pause & wonder if like Keir Starmer there will be a lot of promises of a Leftward shift (such as Starmer promised when defeating Jeremy Corbyn for the party leadership) only to be subsequently abandoned as 'unrealistic' or 'impractical'.

As a real Left alternative now seems to exist with the Greens (GPEW/SGs) that might be a better bet?

Who'll trust Labour again?

#Greens #Labour #politics

Just to confirm that Labour's relationship with democracy is (shall we say) uneven:

the Govt. is once again (like previous Govt.s) considering constraining & narrowing the scope of Freedom of Information requests, citing cost as the reason, when its more likely linked to such transparency often presented in the Westminster Village as representing a friction that makes governing more difficult.

Of course, they could just be more open & transparent?

#FreedomOfInformation #politics

h/t FT

What could possibly go wrong?

The US Federal Reserve (that regulates US banks) is about to reduce the capital adequacy requirement for banks (raised in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis).

Of course, nearly 20 years after the global financial crisis, regulators & bankers may say they've learned the lessons of 2008, but what they really mean is they've (wilfully) forgotten them.

Just one more act bringing a crisis nearer (as if attacking Iran wasn't;t enough)!

#politics #banking
h/t FT

@peterbrown

Of course the issue is whether a stagnating GDP necessarily means people get poorer? The dominance of GDP makes such a Q.seem non-sensical but rather is the heart of the problem...

Zack Polanski (Green Party of England & Wales) argues that GDP should be downgraded as a measure of political economic success; he is 'much more interested in growing people’s mental health, growing our public services, growing cohesion of our communities'....

While possibly a quixotic aim given the continuing centrality of GDP measure to political discourse, it *does* play to people's distrust of GDP as a plausible measure of their own economic experience(s).

#economics #politics
h/t FT

Some great music from the 80s, no.32

Rick Astley. Never Going To Give You Up

This massive 80s Stock, Aitken & Waterman hit from Rick Astley, subsequently revived through the online 'Rick rolling' phenomenon, now seems almost ubiquitous... but it remains a fabulous slice of mid-80s highly polished pop, with its infectious (if typical SAW) rhythm arrangement & Astley's impassioned vocals. Some might criticise its manufactured production but when it works, it works!

#music #80sClassics

As you likely have guessed I'm a sceptic about the likely future contribution of AI/LLMs to overall human existence (accepting that in focussed deployment it can be useful).

As far as I can see a technology that works on averaging & synthesising undifferentiated existing knowledge can only slowly drive innovation & new knowledge out of the human systems it encroaches on.

Eventually such an approach will produce stagnation & ignorance... but we seem happily to be running into the void!

#AI

Who'd have thought that a bill to constrain corporate donations to political parties in the UK contains many loopholes that would make it largely ineffective.... I wonder why that is?

Just more declaratory politics pretending to do something about the creeping corruption of our democracy but actually doing little to stop the political class sucking on the corporate tit (as it were).

Another policy area where the Greens are more robust than the mainstream!

#politics

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/19/corporate-donations-uk-political-parties-foreign-interference-bill-loopholes-centax

As more employers (from Harvey Nichols to Hays Travel Agency) are identified (named & shamed) for not paying the minimum wage, often citing 'technical errors' now corrected.... we are also seeing claims (due to legal shifts) young people are *too* expensive to employ.

But, we're never told mid-level or top executives are too expensive to employ, nor that shareholders are too expensive to reward (via dividends); no, its always the low paid who must adjust!

#workers #politics
h/t FT

@gemlog @peterbrown @ShredderLivesOn

Yes, I'd agree, like fair trade & labour rights the privatised certification process is weak & reliant on good will... but having established the plausibility of the B Corp, moving to a formalised state-led regulation is a path other organisational innovations have traveled (over time)