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   ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 05:57:40 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

   OPEC is increasing oil production at a time oil prices are already falling. RIP our electric bills 💩

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     wasabi brain (virtualinanity@toot.community)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 05:57:38 JST wasabi brain

     in reply to

     • kwayk42

     @jerry @kwayk42 can you explain why? I would think it’d be the opposite

     clacke and clacke@libranet.de is my main like this.
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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 05:57:39 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • kwayk42

     @kwayk42 this is going to send gas prices (and natural gas prices) through the roof.

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     kwayk42 (kwayk42@sechtor.social)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 05:57:40 JST kwayk42

     in reply to

     @jerry even with oil prices going down, gas prices in northern Nevada haven't budged even a penny. I've been paying $4.17/gallon for several months

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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 05:58:34 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • wasabi brain
     • kwayk42

     @virtualinanity @kwayk42 the lower oil prices go in the US, the less economical is it for US oil producers to drill for and pump oil. New exploration and drilling break even is about $70/barrel. We are at $59/barrel now. The opec action could send it down to $50/barrel. This means that less of our oil (and oil byproducts like gas) will come from US companies. We will be capping wells, not drilling, shuttering refineries, and so on. This, by the way, also significantly curtails domestic nat gas production, at a time that the US is exporting more and more nat gas because we can sell it for much more abroad. At some point, likely after they see US production materially down, opec will slam on the brakes, which will send oil prices soaring. This is exactly what happened in Trump 45 and bleeding into Biden’s term, btw. It’s in the process of happening again.

     clacke@libranet.de is my main likes this.
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     wasabi brain (virtualinanity@toot.community)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 06:01:06 JST wasabi brain

     in reply to

     • kwayk42

     @jerry @kwayk42 awesome explanation!

     clacke@libranet.de is my main likes this.
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     clacke (clacke@libranet.de)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:49:34 JST clacke

     in reply to

     • wasabi brain
     • kwayk42

     @jerry Is a supply shock to the US system the likely strategy behind this move by OPEC? To disrupt US production?

     @virtualinanity @kwayk42

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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:49:42 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • Martin Seeger

     @masek what will be different this time, I think, is that he’ll still be in office (probably) when the oil prices reverse course and start soaring. But you’re right, for a time we will have to hear about what an amazing deal maker he is. I guess then he’ll blame Biden when it goes back up?

     clacke likes this.
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     Martin Seeger (masek@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:49:43 JST Martin Seeger

     in reply to

     @jerry His handlers want Trump to be able to say, he brought the oil price down. A counterpoint to all else becoming more expensive.

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     Kris (isotopp@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:49:47 JST Kris

     in reply to

     • Martin Seeger

     @jerry @masek break even for most fracking is $63ish, so too low an oil price will make fracking in Canada and Texas impossible.

     I dint know what y ebreak even price for oil in Russia is

     clacke likes this.
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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:06 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • wasabi brain
     • kwayk42

     @virtualinanity @kwayk42 US production will recover, but it will take time and during that recovery period, we’ll see some really high prices. But we will see much higher electric and natural gas prices almost immediately.

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     wasabi brain (virtualinanity@toot.community)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:06 JST wasabi brain

     in reply to

     • kwayk42

     @jerry @kwayk42 Biden did a good job of using strategic reserve as
     Buyer of last resort to keep producers producing. Seems like they should do something similar for gas

     clacke likes this.
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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:08 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • wasabi brain
     • kwayk42

     @virtualinanity @kwayk42 I agree with that. I think the SPR may still be close to depleted too. Maybe they’ll fill it back up if it goes down to $50, but who knows since they just outsourced the SPR to some private company.

     clacke likes this.
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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:09 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • clacke
     • wasabi brain
     • kwayk42

     @clacke I think so - but ironically, opec is effectively doing what Trump wants - making moves that make oil cheaper, and so they have to be sitting back smiling because they are making Trump happy while tying our shoe laces together. Trump doesn’t seem to be able to think more than one step ahead, and he’s surrounded himself with people who will never question him, just like any good CEO does. @virtualinanity @kwayk42

     clacke likes this.
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     Mike Sheward (secureowl@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:10 JST Mike Sheward

     in reply to

     @jerry Hegseth probably just said “we are currently clean on opec”

     clacke likes this.
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     Simon Zerafa (Status: 🙂🖥️🪛💾) (simonzerafa@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:19 JST Simon Zerafa (Status: 🙂🖥️🪛💾)

     in reply to

     @jerry

     Seems an odd way to restore the price?

     Cutting production would be a better move, unless OPEC is in a charitable mood these days?

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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:19 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • Simon Zerafa (Status: 🙂🖥️🪛💾)

     @simonzerafa opec knows what they are doing. A year or two of $50 oil will get them
     Two or three years of $100+ oil

     clacke likes this.
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     Simon Zerafa (Status: 🙂🖥️🪛💾) (simonzerafa@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:23 JST Simon Zerafa (Status: 🙂🖥️🪛💾)

     in reply to

     @jerry

     Oh, so it forces US domestic production to lower its price (or improve profits). Either way is a Trump "success"?

     Assuming that $50 to $60 US oil is even profitable to pull out if the ground and sell.

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     ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲 (jerry@infosec.exchange)'s status on Sunday, 04-May-2025 07:54:23 JST ❄️☃️Merry Jerry🎄🌲

     in reply to

     • Simon Zerafa (Status: 🙂🖥️🪛💾)

     @simonzerafa oil is a globally traded commodity, so more supply means a lower price. Lower prices mean that the non-subsidized (relative to Middle East) US oil companies will have to cease some operations because it’s no longer profitable at the current price level. So the US stops drilling, slows down on pumping and refining, and begins to import more oil. Then opec cuts production and the costs skyrocket because it takes years for the US producers to get back to business. This is what happened after Trump negotiated a production increase with Saudi Arabia in his first term.

     clacke likes this.