The only place a Red Dawn-esque opportunistic invasion might occur in the wake of a federal collapse is Alaska, assuming Russia would try to make a play for the oil fields. That's gonna suck for Alaska and maybe Canada, but the continental populations are going to be too busy dealing with their own shit to do anything other than look at what's happening in the Arctic and say "not my problem".
Primarily China, who may one day invoke a casus belli from the Century of Humiliation to reclaim territory that had been ceded to the Russian Empire during that era.
I didn't say they'd do that in the near future. Remember that Russia and China have shared a bitter rivalry since the Sino-Soviet split. That hasn't gone away just because they've engaged in some cynical acts of cooperation against mutual enemies during a period of geopolitical instability.
@Hoss@BobsonDugnuttHB@Bunsen@Terry@WandererUber@demonofustio@Griffith I don't see China in this light. If they give me a reason to reconsider I will but for now, nothing indicates this. China going this route would also push Russia into the arms of the US and Europe, something China has interest in avoiding so far.
@Hoss@BobsonDugnuttHB@Bunsen@Terry@WandererUber@demonofustio@Griffith Ah ok. I try not to look too far into the future because so much could happen and it is very hard to predict anything too far off. So you could be correct but its so far off that a lot could happen that neither of us could foresee.