Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   realcaseyrollins ✝️ (realcaseyrollins@social.teci.world)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Oct-2024 09:55:14 JST realcaseyrollins ✝️
   #KamalaHarris' supporters have a gut feeling that she will lose to #Trump. Look at how many of them are railing against the #ElectoralCollege.
   
   The losing side always does this. The #GOP did this in 2020.
   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Oct-2024 09:55:11 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • stux⚡

     @stux

     Honestly i think you are both right. Lets face it Trump won last time with FAR worse numbers than he has now. So i think Harris supporters are well aware of that and part of them are legitimately scared that even though everyone is telling them Trump is the underdog thats exactly what they were told last time he won too.

     That said I do not think Trump will win. Sure he may, i am not saying anything is certain. But if i were a betting man I'd say Harris will likely win just based on an objective assesment and playing the odds.

     Obviously I dont WANT Harris to win, she has an absolutely disgusting track record on women's rights and minorities rights in general, so her winning would be a disaster. But i still must admit she is the most likely.

     inb4: Just because I dont want Harris to win doesnt mean I want Trump to win, there are over 3 other choices on the ballot.

     @realcaseyrollins

   • Embed this notice
     stux⚡ (stux@mstdn.social)'s status on Tuesday, 29-Oct-2024 09:55:13 JST stux⚡

     in reply to

     @realcaseyrollins Nahh, she's gonna beat the criminal orange's his ass big time :ablobgrin:

     It's waaaaay past Donny's Jailtime™️

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 06:28:37 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • stux⚡

     @realcaseyrollins @stux

     looking at polls really means nothing without some meta analysis. Polls differ wildly in their predictions and historic accuracy... So ill try to break down my own process (done non-rigerously) as a data scientist.

     1) look through metaanalysis of polls to find polls with long-history of polling across multiple presidents and most accurately predicted the output correctly
     2) collect the top 3 polls that have historically correctly predicted the presidential outcome per state
     3) using just those polls assume standard deviation on the output per state to identify what polls indicate certainty in prediction and which ones have an error rate where either candidate would fall within the error
     4) look at the "swing" states identified and then calculate the statical outcome of either
     5) total the electorial college and see if its a slam dunk for one side or likely to be a pretty tight race, the clearly the biases the more confidently i will lean towards that side.

   • Embed this notice
     realcaseyrollins ✝️ (realcaseyrollins@social.teci.world)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 06:28:38 JST realcaseyrollins ✝️

     in reply to

     • stux⚡
     • 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱
     @freemo @stux

     But if i were a betting man I’d say Harris will likely win just based on an objective assesment and playing the odds.

     Which indicators are you using for that prediction? I’m mostly looking at the latest head-to-head state polls, like #RCP does. Wouldn’t be shocked if the #RCP #ElectoralCollege map ends up being close to what happens in the election.

   • Embed this notice
     🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱 (freemo@qoto.org)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Oct-2024 07:24:02 JST 🎓 Doc Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

     in reply to

     • stux⚡

     @realcaseyrollins

     So i just redid my casual analysis... I actually change my answer and agree, Trump is the front winner now. This has only **recently** changed mind you, so what i said was correct just a few weeks back. But as of the current data today it seems Trump has a stronger lead than Harris and is more likely to win.

     By the way remember, every time you state your side is likely to win it decreases your chance of winning. So being confident that your side is going to win is a guaranteed way to sabotage yourself. The more either side believes they are the winning side the less people feel motivated to actually go out and vote.

     But yea a new objective read changes my answer, it seems Trump is objectively the lead for winning.

     @stux