So i just redid my casual analysis... I actually change my answer and agree, Trump is the front winner now. This has only **recently** changed mind you, so what i said was correct just a few weeks back. But as of the current data today it seems Trump has a stronger lead than Harris and is more likely to win.
By the way remember, every time you state your side is likely to win it decreases your chance of winning. So being confident that your side is going to win is a guaranteed way to sabotage yourself. The more either side believes they are the winning side the less people feel motivated to actually go out and vote.
But yea a new objective read changes my answer, it seems Trump is objectively the lead for winning.