Honestly i think you are both right. Lets face it Trump won last time with FAR worse numbers than he has now. So i think Harris supporters are well aware of that and part of them are legitimately scared that even though everyone is telling them Trump is the underdog thats exactly what they were told last time he won too.
That said I do not think Trump will win. Sure he may, i am not saying anything is certain. But if i were a betting man I'd say Harris will likely win just based on an objective assesment and playing the odds.
Obviously I dont WANT Harris to win, she has an absolutely disgusting track record on women's rights and minorities rights in general, so her winning would be a disaster. But i still must admit she is the most likely.
inb4: Just because I dont want Harris to win doesnt mean I want Trump to win, there are over 3 other choices on the ballot.