Notices by kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)

Being aesthetically impaired I rarely post photos or art, but this…

A Man Feeding Swans in the Snow, Poland | Marcin Ryczek

#Russia #Rosstat has published data on industrial production in Russia for November 2025. And almost everywhere there has been a collapse. Evgeny Istrebin analysed the data for various industries. Everywhere there has been a decline of tens of per cent.

Machine building. November 2025 compared to November 2024

• Radiators -29%
• Boilers -29%
• Grates, meshes -15%
• Wire -25%
• Television receivers -34%
• Electric motors -6%
• Generators with internal combustion engines -30%
• Lead batteries -23% (for 11 months)
• Fibre optic cables -29%
• Pumps -38%
• Bearings -37%
• Tractors -61%
• Bulldozers -53%
• Elevators -37%
• Internal combustion engines -48%
• Passenger cars -34%
• Buses -17..-27%
• Trucks -43%
• Car bodies -37%
• Trailers -33%
• Electric locomotives -24%
• Tram cars -26%
• Passenger cars -40%
• Freight cars -44%

Chemical industry

• Sulphur -36%
• Chemical fibres -11%
• Tyres -29%
• Plastic pipes -13%
• Plates, sheets, film -9..-16%

Construction

• Ceramic tiles -13..-37%
• Ceramic bricks -19%
• Cement -10%
• Building bricks -14%
• Silicate wall blocks -20%
• Prefabricated blocks -16%
• Concrete -6.4%
• Pipes -13…-42%
• Radiators, boilers -29%

#economy

Russians love to speak of about the “expired” (просроченный) #Zelensky but… who’s saying that?

• #Putin himself has been president illegally since at least 2012. He for a third term in office in violation of the Russian constitution, which was specially amended for this occasion to make it quasi-legal, after a largely falsified referendum.
• #Lukashenka is even better as his 2020 election was achieved by massive and well-documented electoral fraud.

Both ‘elections’ were accompanied by mass protests, some of the arrested are still jailed in #Belarus. Both ‘leaders’ prefer not to mention this part anymore, even though back then they were very verbal about ‘fifth column’.

Zelensky at the same time was elected in elections observed by the OSCE, which raised no objections, and his current extended term is 100% in accordance with the martial law imposed in response to Russian invasion on #Ukraine and in compliance with the Constitution. Unlike Putin, Zelensky needed no ‘manual tweaks’ to remain in his post - it was “only” Russian invasion that cemented him there, so if Russians are so concerned they can always end the war and let Ukraine elect a new president.

I thin chart quite precisely explains why Ukraine is fighting so fiercely. And why all of these countries on the top right are so desperately rearming themselves right now. And why most of of them joined #NATO on the first opportunity.

You can play with the chart here - I’ve just added direct neighbours of the country that now poses itself as “dove of peace”

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/human-rights-index-vdem?tab=line&time=1900..2024&country=POL~EST~RUS~CZE~HUN~ROU~LTU~LVA~FIN&mapSelect=~POL

Dmitri #Kozak, ex #Putin aide, refused the president’s orders on day two of the Ukraine invasion, insisting he didn’t know #Russia’s goals. Summary by Tymofiy Mylovanov.

Days before the invasion, Kozak warned Putin at a Security Council meeting: Ukrainians will resist, sanctions will be severe, Russia’s position will suffer.

He drafted a memo predicting Sweden and Finland would join NATO, which came true. Kozak had worked with Putin since the 1990s in St. Petersburg. He managed Putin’s first re-election, oversaw the 2014 Olympics, and integrated Crimea.

He was negotiating genuinely with Ukraine when Putin invaded. On Feb 25, Kozak was negotiating a cease-fire with Ukrainian officials involving Russia withdrawing from all areas except Crimea and Donbas.

Putin was furious, accused him of exceeding his mandate, and demanded he negotiate only surrender.

After the confrontation, Kozak lost his Ukraine portfolio but kept his office. He met Western emissaries exploring peace plans, signaling Putin knew of these conversations.

He chain-smoked through back-channel meetings brainstorming solutions. Kozak later sent Putin a stunning memo proposing: stop the war, negotiate with Ukraine, make the judiciary independent of security services.

He shared it outside the Kremlin, separating himself from Putin.He resigned in September 2025. His analytical notes and pleas changed nothing.

While Kozak silently traveled to Israel for treatment, the system he had built for 30 years continued to grind away human lives and destroy Ukrainian cities.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/world/europe/russia-putin-aide-dmitri-kozak-ukraine-war.html

Unpaywalled: https://archive.is/mCcUB

Today’s #Poland minister of foreign affairs Radosław (Radek) Sikorski in 1987-1989 when he was a war correspondent in #Soviet occupied #Afghanistan.

The last one is a photograph of a family killed and mummified in their home as a result of a Soviet Air Force bombing raid for which he received World Press Photo Awards in 1988.

Meanwhile #Russia military channel “Voennyi Osvedomitel” posts videos of “our FPV drones pounding the same monument at which Zelensky filmed himself”. But then, let’s quote directly because it’s get even better:

A couple of Ukrainian military women filmed a video near it and almost became the target of one of the drones. It can be seen that the approaches to the stele are controlled by enemy infantry, but the stele itself and its immediate surroundings are now effectively a kill zone for Russian Armed Forces operators.

Meanwhile, Russian Ministry of Defense published the following statement:

Subdivisions of the Western Military Group are exercising reliable control over all areas of the liberated city of Kupiansk.

In the attached video spokesman of “Zapad” Group explains “I’m now in the advance command point” while standing an undisclosed cellar 😄

Am I the only one who sees some inconsistency in fierce pounding of a zone that you say you 100% control? 🤔

Another #BlackSea #shadowfleet tanker hit by #Ukraine - this time “Dashan”, with clear attribution in the form of a nice video.

https://video.echelon.pl/w/3kNaRDMMNgqDTBYYEvNGCn

One problem that many media experts seem to be completely ignoring while discussing this “new reality” is that they got used to the “old reality” that they no longer notice basic facts:

• Russians are sailing “flying Dutchman” ships with fake registrations (as confirmed by Gambia), fake insurances and AIS switched off
• nobody gives shit
• two Russian tankers already crashed on their own in Azov Sea in 2024, polluting all beaches within 100 km radius with mazut
• nobody gives shit for the last 3+ years
• until that happens in Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea or Baltic Sea, when there will be a big outcry from tourist industry and Russians will say “oh it’s not our ship, it’s Gambia” even if everyone knows it’s bullshit
• but that’s precisely what these countries had been tolerating or even fostering (#Greece) for the last years

Sam Altman (head of OpenAI):

I cannot imagine figuring out how to raise a newborn without ChatGPT.

Reading top US enterpreneur’s statements like this I’m not really sure if it’s really European civilisation that is “collapsing”… 🤔

#Twitter diplomacy continuing 🤦#Musk once again ranted about his unique definition of democracy that in practice really means oligarchy:

The European Union is not DEMOcracy – rule of the people – but rather BUREAUcracy – rule of the unelected bureaucrat!

To which #France replied:

We know your definition of democracy is different. But every country doesn’t have to give MASSIVE subs to some companies to offer their owners a so-called legitimacy, including to denounce budget deficits they created themselves, to be a democracy.

Clearly alluding to the massive subsidies Musk’s companies are receiving from the US government to sustain liquidity and profits. Also clearly alluding to Musk’s rather miserable failure at DOGE.

Adding to our recent discussion with @reedmideke about Europe #drone incidents…

The five drones released in the Irish Sea were military-grade, as big as wooden pallets. “Analysts say at least five pilots, spotters and counter-surveillance teams were probably involved, meaning it would have taken time and extensive resources to organise both on land and at sea.”

Doesn’t sound like amateurs at all…

https://www.thetimes.com/world/ireland-world/article/ireland-security-inquiry-into-russian-drone-raid-on-zelensky-jet-qvv5r73vn

#Poland police arrested three #Ukraine citizens (aged 39–43) in the center of Warsaw who were traveling in a car equipped with:

• advanced hacking equipment,
• a spy device detector,
• SIM cards, routers, FLIPPER, antennas,
• laptops, cameras, and portable drives.

The seized devices could have been used to breach security and interfere with strategic IT systems. That resembles a bit the arrest of #GRU officers in #Netherlands in 2018 while they tried to hack #OPCW corporate network. This of course could be regular cyber criminals or pentesters, but I’d say these days this kind of jobs would display certain lack of self-preservation instinct in each case.

P.S. “Ukraine citizens” is essentially holder of passport of Ukraine, doesn’t tell you anything of nationality or political affiliation.

More details from - of course - Polish official profiles on Twitter (sorry):

Polish police officers in Warsaw detained three Ukrainian citizens traveling with advanced hacking equipment and spy device detectors. Stopped for a routine traffic control, the men explained they were IT specialists traveling across Europe and arrived in Poland just hours earlier.

Both GRU and cybercrime sounds equally plausible.

#Russia Medvedev and Dmitriev ranting on Twitter/X about “EU limiting free speech” through a VPN because they Twitter is blocked in Russia is an epic level of absurdity 😂

Marco Rubio just posted on Twitter:

The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments. The days of censoring Americans online are over.

He did so after a few US companies got fined in EU for violation of laws regarding privacy and not only moderation of posts, but also the opposite - arbitrary deletion of legitimate content and refusal to restore it.

Seems like the secretary of state just discovered that if an US company wants to earn money in another country, that comes bundled with following its laws! Can you imagine?

For comparison, if an EU company wants to do business in US, it has to follow not only US federal laws, but also state laws and county (!) laws. Americans in EU have it much easier, because they enjoy laws that are largely harmonised among member states rather than the US mess of incompatible state laws and variable sales tax rates between counties.

Very mysterious, I’m wondering what these morons needed explosives for because police also said it’s not “terrorism”?

The two men who have been arrested on suspicion of explosive offences are Polish nationals, Derbyshire Police has said.

Police arrest two men on suspicion of explosives offences as authorities declare a major incident and evacuate about 200 homes in Derby

Derbyshire Police say it is not being investigated as a terrorism incident

A short while ago, a controlled explosion was carried out after police warned residents they “may hear a bang”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cjwyq505n4yt