Some front-line commanders, he continues, have begun refusing orders to advance, even when they came directly from the office of the President. “They just want to sit in the trenches and hold the line,” he says. “But we can’t win a war that way.”
At one point in early October, he said, the political leadership in Kyiv demanded an operation to “retake” the city of Horlivka, a strategic outpost in eastern Ukraine that the Russians have held and fiercely defended for nearly a decade. The answer came back in the form of a question: With what? “They don’t have the men or the weapons,” says the officer. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”
In some branches of the military, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides tells me that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.”
“They’ll never shut down the economy”
“They’d never just open the borders to migrants”
“They’ll never force people to take vaccines”
“They’ll never do a military draft”
YES, THESE ARE REAL QUOTES FROM THE US ARMY WAR COLLEGES OFFICIAL PRESS RELEASE!
The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties. Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries. With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks.
Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.
@ned It will help the USA. By converting all foreign US debt to local debt, and by weakening USD, USA will become a manufacturing super power like Japan. It will cause another few decades of cheap goods and commodities
The USA will become less wasteful. The USA might even reinvent baby making families of straight heteronormative civilized young people
1. Every other country sucks, What is the credible alternative? Answer: commodities are the credible alternative
2. But commodity cannot be bought without USD. Answer: Not true. Many trades have already been done with rupee or yuan or ruble, dirham
3. But those currency are bought using USD. Answer: Not true. For example indian laborers in the UAE sent a lot of Rupees back to India, and it used to be the case that UAE bought that rupee using USD, which UAE got by selling oil. Now the UAE government directly sends oil to India for Rupees. It is cheaper to do rupee remittance to India by selling oil for Rupees without jumping across two bid ask spreads involving USD
4. But those currencies are pegged to USD. Answer: A peg is not automatic it has to be defended by non-US central bank. They do it by selling US treasuries to the Federal Reserve to buy USD which is sold again to buy back non-USD currencies. Many countries do this using their trade surpluses which are currently stored using US Treasury but slowly being converted to commodities because US treasuries are falling in price because Fed is hiking rates (a.k.a lowering the floor price Fed is willing to buy in the bond auction). By not involving USD in all subsequent international trade, foreign demand for US treasuries (to store trade surplus) reduces, and this lost foreign demand is provided by the Federal Reserve. Slowly foreign use of US treasuries subsides and the offshore use of USD (through money multiplier effect of US treasuries as collateral) also reduces. Eventually the pegs of foreign currencies to USD breaks and they become gradually more pegged to commodities