Notices by NBS (nbs@noauthority.social)

Well that was fast

Bitcoin is about to overtake Silver's market cap...

@Richard

Just gonna hold my physical silver. Still has its “oh shit” end of the world uses, but I also don’t like getting raped on the spread to get out.

@Richard @cjd

I dislike the “are gold and silver useful compared to X” debates because they largely end up at the apocalypse scenario. Nobody knows what the fuck anybody will be doing or valuing and 99.9999999999999% of us will be dead before said apocalypse begins.

Waste of time to debate it. I like gold and silver, they are good market hedges. Always will be when it matters, and I don’t care about the apocalypse scenarios.

@bot

Here are a couple more, I promise they’re not photoshopped. First one is me and my friend who invited me down here, two small reds. 2nd one is the big one from the original post but with the head close to the shot, bit of fisherman magic to make it look big

Another good day on the bayou

Caught 41 bull red fish today, biggest was one that I got in the first picture at 46 inches.

Good eating too, we caught a few smaller ones (bigger than 14 inch but smaller than 27) and ate them tonight. Really good fish.

Even caught one on a sugar cane rod, an old but fun way of fishing.

Went out with Paul Miller, a guide who’s been fishing this area for 11 years. He has a podcast too, Tuna Town Talks, check it out!

The country this morning

@bot

There's always a chance of something happening. If someone offered me a bet at 0% odds, I would endlessly buy it (no cost). So she was probably 0.01% or whatever the lowest increment is on Polymarket.

@bot

That was before Biden's debate performance and before the Dems axed him as their candidate.

Now the fun begins. I’ll be up most of the night trading this shit, so I’ll share some thoughts here while data comes in.

Bloomberg terminal has some great data aggregation stuff too, “WSL ELECNIGHT <GO>” if you’re on a terminal, which I’ll try to share here quickly. So far exit polling is uninteresting and no real results have been revealed.

I doubt we know who wins tonight unless it’s a real blowout, but it will be fun regardless.

Trump odds rising in betting markets: Trump 68% vs Harris at 32%. Still VERY early, but notice the market reaction now.

S&P futures still ramping, bitcoin rising (correlated to betting market odds). Still very early though, and much of the betting market moves are likely due to trading flow punting in larger than usual size (thin books right now).

Markets starting to move a bit.

Bonds bid (rates off), S&P, RTY, and BTC bid. EUR and MXN get sold.

@bot

They’re gonna go buck wild, might host a viewing party or something on a rooftop here in Chicago. They will take to the streets for sure

@bot

Based on supply/demand, so yeah trading.

Buyers/sellers set bid/offer each candidate to the current equilibrium of where those odds are expected by the market. So the market expects a 66% chance Trump wins based on how much has been bet on him to win.

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but Kamala is getting to levels worth betting on in Polymarket odds.

She now sits at a 33.3% chance (MAGIC NUMBER) to win the presidency. This spread should absolutely tighten up into the election, and I’m pretty close to buying Kamala as a short term trade. Might wait for 30%, but at some point this spread must tighten (election night perhaps when one or two upset states get announced?).

30% feels a bit too cheap going into the election.

Druckenmiller talking about how election odds have flipped considerably for Trump, which has caused rally in bank stocks (benefit from a stronger Dollar), crypto, and DJT Trump’s media company.

Plenty of time left in the race and markets can be wrong, but the momentum from these past couple of weeks has been strong.

It will be a fun few weeks.

Summary of today

Picked up a new daily driver watch today. Tissot Seastar 43mm. Not the most fancy in the collection but it’s Swiss, a diver, and inexpensive enough for me to not panic over dinging it on something.

Still going to swap this out for my Orients though, I love how those wear.

Another new hire starts tomorrow, going to give her this advice on day one

Real