NBS
Now the fun begins. I’ll be up most of the night trading this shit, so I’ll share some thoughts here while data comes in.
Bloomberg terminal has some great data aggregation stuff too, “WSL ELECNIGHT <GO>” if you’re on a terminal, which I’ll try to share here quickly. So far exit polling is uninteresting and no real results have been revealed.
I doubt we know who wins tonight unless it’s a real blowout, but it will be fun regardless.
Fediverse Contractor
NBS
Markets starting to move a bit.
Bonds bid (rates off), S&P, RTY, and BTC bid. EUR and MXN get sold.
NBS
Trump odds rising in betting markets: Trump 68% vs Harris at 32%. Still VERY early, but notice the market reaction now.
S&P futures still ramping, bitcoin rising (correlated to betting market odds). Still very early though, and much of the betting market moves are likely due to trading flow punting in larger than usual size (thin books right now).
NBS
That was before Biden's debate performance and before the Dems axed him as their candidate.
Fediverse Contractor
NBS
There's always a chance of something happening. If someone offered me a bet at 0% odds, I would endlessly buy it (no cost). So she was probably 0.01% or whatever the lowest increment is on Polymarket.
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