Notices tagged with peakrenewables
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Monday, 04-Nov-2024 11:59:16 JST 
simsa03
The problem is even worse (although mentioned in the article) with the grid-transition taking place to service household-to-grid and vehicle-to-grid approaches. See https://gnusocial.jp/notice/7399225
The electricity transition to renewables needs a completely different, that is: modular, grid structure. For that transformers are essential and, if the article is right, short in supply. Given the currend grid structure, this creates a further bottleneck exacerbating the problems culminating in #peakrenewables. -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Monday, 04-Nov-2024 03:36:35 JST
simsa03
Harry Dempsey, "World’s largest transformer maker warns of supply crunch" https://www.ft.com/content/a0fa2e61-b684-42b7-bd12-6b9d7c28285c
« Transformers had long been readily available within six to eight months when manufacturers suffered from a glut for years, but demand in the $48bn market has suddenly rocketed. Its size is expected to reach $67bn by 2030, according to estimates by consultancy Rystad Energy.
Utilities wanting to buy the key piece of electrical infrastructure would now have to wait three to four years if they have not reserved one already, said Schierenbeck, formerly CEO of German energy company Uniper.
The supply chain bottleneck is another pinch point for power systems struggling with surging growth in electricity generation and ageing infrastructure.
In particular, the expanding share of renewables in the electricity mix in some markets requires more transmission equipment because they are often located far from users and produce power from more dispersed sources than traditional electricity plants.
That has created an urgent need to upgrade the grid to tackle huge waiting lists for new projects to connect to networks, as regulators struggle to cope with the major power system overhaul that decarbonising requires. »
#energy #infrastructure #renewables #peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Sunday, 06-Oct-2024 12:22:29 JST
simsa03
I don't think that it is possible to neatly separate the home user market for electricity from an industry market one. The more #renewables you connect with the grid, the more traditional power plants you need to avoid net fluctuations. That is: All home users with their IMO naïve idea of "selling back to the grid" ignore that their fantasies presuppose the full-fledged operation and round-the-clock availibility of what they want to abolish: Traditional powerplants (coal, gas, nuclear) in massive sizes, ready to step in any minute. There is, again IMO, no way that renewables can be used meaningfully on a private home-owner basis. Whih is one of the reasons why I think #peakrenewables is far more realistic than some "green electricity" future. -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Tuesday, 10-Sep-2024 03:43:28 JST
simsa03
Well, yes and no. You mentioned storage, then flipped to production. Renewables have no capacities for storage. And their electrcity generation is imbedded in a context of other factors like grid stability, prices at spot markets, etc. The commingling of topics was in your notice, not in mine
Turning "production processes to electric" is a pipe dream. The transformation of the chemical industry in DE alone would require us to put 500 TWh/a annually on top of the current annual consumption of 600 TWh of electricity, and that's only the chemical industry. And no, you cannot create that electricity to prices that keeps chemical production and products competitive. And a further no, as we didn't even mention how ore mining and refinement of minerals to produce the renewable stuff relies on fossil fuels in the mining industry and thus ads to fossil fuel consumption as to climate emissions.
Accorting to a McKinsey report (need to look up the link), the transformation towards electricity across all sectors till 2045 would require DE alone to pay about € 10 trillion total, that is € 500 billion annually. Nobody has that money.
I could open a different thread on why I see #peakrenewables but I leave that for another day. One example may suffice: We'll be lucky if in DE alone we can keep the power output of wind on-shore at current levels given the decommissioning of about half of the fleet from 2026 onwards due to end of life requirements. We're talking about 14,000 units that need to be replace *before* we can add more electricity generated from wind on-shore.
And yes, stuff like Tesla's Megapack seems feasible in decentralized, movable logistics environments as that of the military in war zones. Another field may be development aid and disaster mitigation. But here the consumption is relatively small and by no means on a scale that could serve as a base for industry-size production. -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Tuesday, 10-Sep-2024 00:57:57 JST
simsa03
Partly so, in my opinion. I concur with the assessment that dezentralised energy storage capacities will – over a long strech of time – mostly benefit the military and its increasingly electricty-intensive equipment (drones, flight control, interception, AI managed swarms, etc.).
But that does not pertain to volatile #renewables like wind and sun whose effectiveness and suitability far more depend on grid structures, base loads of consumption and conventinal production, electricity markets, network costs, etc. That's one of the reasons, BTW, why I speak of #peakrenewables: They can positively contribute up to 30% in the overall electricity production, marketing, transfer, and consumption – beyond that it mainly increases costs and creates negative price offsets. And storage even for such minor for such capacities is not on the horizon. Hydrogen production on site of renewables is laughable (10% effectivness) and hydrogen powered plants are, well, not in sight.
Thus I think the current Tesla "Megapack" battery units (3.9 Mw/h storage per unit) is currently the best solution not for private, municipal, or commercial solutions but for military.
[Sidenote: And given the demand for batteries, I find it plausible that the vast lithium reserves in the Donbas region provided one of the main reasons for Putin to invade Ukraine.] -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Friday, 05-Jul-2024 07:22:55 JST
simsa03
John Kemp, "China's rapid renewables rollout hits grid limits" https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-rapid-renewables-rollout-hits-grid-limits-2024-07-04
«During peak periods of wind and solar generation, there is not enough population and industry in these areas to absorb all the output, and not enough long-distance transmission capacity to move the surplus east and south. [...]
By 2023, the utilisation rate for wind power had climbed to a remarkable 97.3% and solar had reached 98%, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua.
With rapid deployment of renewable capacity, however, the problem of abandonment is re-emerging, with wind utilisation down to 96.1% and solar down to 96% in the first five months of 2024.»
#renewables #peakrenewables #energy #infrastructure -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Wednesday, 19-Jun-2024 05:12:59 JST
simsa03
Sigh. Ok, you believe in renewables and their ability to not only provide the electricity for the current needs but for what is necessary in the decarbonisation of ultimately fossil fuel-run industries. You believe that we're not already *not* reaching #peakrenewables (e.g., all current installed wind turbines worldwide will have to be replaced by 2050) but you think that societies will even be capable of financing that transition. (A recent McKinsey report estimates that for Germany alone to transform all its energy needs throughout all sectors until 2045 roughly cost € 500 billion annually.) Somewhere down my bookmarks I have the numbers and estimates of the fossil fuel and carbon emissions needed to extract all the minerals the world would needs to build all the renewables and storage systems. I won't get into that discussion tonight, but I don't see *any* chance to attenuate the climate crisis by adding more of the same, even if it comes with catchy phrases like "circular economy". (And in all of that we haven't even touched the issue that progress in one sector is pretty much erased by inventions in another – see, e.g., how the rise of cryptocurrency mining has wiped out the emission reductions reached by 30 years of PV deployment, or the projected electricity consumption of AI that will turn the goals of decabonisation into a child's play.)
"Circular economy" like "lesser material consumption for renewables" will turn out like "degrowth": Nice to have, but only possible on-top, and in that presupposing the full functioning of the system they intend to replace. -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Sunday, 28-Apr-2024 23:15:22 JST
simsa03
John Kemp, "China's transition hampered by flat-lining energy intensity" https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-transition-hampered-by-flat-lining-energy-intensity-2024-04-26
« Unless China boosts efficiency, most extra renewables will be used to meet increasing energy requirements rather than replace coal in the next few years.»
#peakrenewables #renewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Friday, 08-Mar-2024 11:43:54 JST
simsa03
Evan Halper, "Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power" https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/07/ai-data-centers-power/
Already #decarbonisation of industries wasn't feasible with #renewables but add #AI to the electricity demands and the energy transition will not work with renewables.
#peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Wednesday, 13-Dec-2023 19:53:51 JST
simsa03
Victor Tangermann, "Microsoft Training AI to Do Paperwork to Build Nuclear Power Plants" https://news.yahoo.com/microsoft-training-ai-paperwork-build-183206259.html
«Instead of going all in on solar and wind power, tech companies like Microsoft and Google are increasingly turning to the idea of small modular reactors (SMRs), which are scaled-down power plants that aim to reduce construction costs through the standardization of components and systems. Despite dozens of designs being considered worldwide, there are zero SMRs currently in operation in the US.
Permitting and construction for SMRs is still incredibly expensive, per the WSJ. As such, Microsoft is teaming up with nonprofit Terra Praxis, which told the WSJ that AI could cut 90 percent of the human hours required to get a new plant approved.»
#AI #peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Monday, 20-Nov-2023 03:57:56 JST
simsa03
Philippe Benoit, "From ‘peak oil’ to ‘peak energy’: What might the world expect?" https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/4315138-from-peak-oil-to-peak-energy-what-should-the-world-expect/
«The International Energy Agency now projects oil, gas, and coal use will all peak this decade. This constitutes a dramatic shift from the last 150 years when the thirst for fossil fuels persistently rose. But now this growth is nearing its end sooner than many expected, driven in part by a surge in renewables.
This significant event, however, masks a more striking possible future: One in which total global energy use peaks and energy’s weight in world affairs diminishes. [...]
In a broader sense, just as history has included the stone, bronze and iron ages, we have been living since the Industrial Revolution in an energy age. But this age, during which energy has dominated so many economic, geopolitical and other dimensions, may be coming to an end with peak energy.»
A bit confusing is the author's talk of "energy peak" which seems to lumb together energy and electricity demands. Thus, whereas I can see a decline in energy demands, I don't see them with regard to electricity demands. (Esp. with all the decarbonisation of industries necessary to accomplish mitigation with climate change.)
Anyway, an interesting piece with a lot of interesting links. Surely countering my musings on #peakrenewables with #peakenergy as the broader concept.
#sources #infrastructure #energy #postdoom -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Tuesday, 14-Nov-2023 01:55:04 JST
simsa03
Robert Bryce, "The Alt-Energy Bloodbath In 10 Charts" https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/the-alt-energy-bloodbath-in-10-charts
« The energy transition isn’t. Despite years of unending hype, hundreds of billions of dollars in federal tax credits, and some $600 billion spent on wind and solar in the U.S. since 2004, investors are abandoning alternative energy in droves. »
#peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Sunday, 10-Sep-2023 08:28:21 JST
simsa03
Cornelia Lichner, "A 10 GW time bomb" https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/09/09/weekend-read-a-10-gw-time-bomb/
«It has long been known some “AAA” backsheet films – made of triple-layer polyamide and widely deployed from 2010 to 2013 – can become brittle and tear. [...] Some 15% of Germany’s solar capacity – 10 GW – could be affected. That equates to up to €2 billion ($2.18 billion) in replacement costs, with only a fraction of the affected panels likely detected thus far.
There are safety risks, too. Affected modules could electrocute if handled in wet weather and are more susceptible to fires. With some severely damaged panels showing only minor performance loss, how can damage be assessed? How long can such modules operate safely after initial premature aging signs? [...]
HaWe’s Weinreich estimated the 10 GW figure, including 2 GW of severely-affected panels installed between 2010 and 2012; and 6 GW installed between 2004 and 2014, that feature other backsheet types and are expected to fail before their 20-year lifespan. »
10 GW installed power of PV is ≈8 TWh/a in 2022. (Calculation mine) Service life of PV panels is ≈20 years. Deterioration in half the time undercuts all calculations for armortisation and profit.
#peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Friday, 08-Sep-2023 08:59:31 JST
simsa03
Jillian Ambrose, "Offshore wind expecting to lose out in auction for UK financial help" https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/07/offshore-wind-expecting-to-lose-out-in-auction-for-uk-financial-help
«At the time, industry experts told ministers that unless the government’s financing approach was changed to take into account the steep increase in costs, developers would be forced to scrap or delay their plans.»
#peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Wednesday, 30-Aug-2023 08:17:15 JST
simsa03
Dharna Noor, "Blow to Biden as offshore wind auction in Gulf of Mexico fails to stir interest" https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/29/us-offshore-wind-lease-sale-gulf-of-mexico
«Several factors may have put a damper on developer interest, the newsletter Heatmap reported last week. Gulf wind speeds are often lower than other coastal areas’, requiring the use of specific turbines for which a robust supply chain must be developed. No Gulf states’ energy policies specifically require the use of offshore wind. And analysts say building out offshore wind in the Gulf will be more expensive than in the north-east, making it harder for wind projects to compete in local energy markets, where existing energy prices are lower.»
#renewables #peakrenewables #infrastructure -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Sunday, 13-Aug-2023 10:11:43 JST
simsa03
Victor Jack, "EU blindsided by ‘spectacular’ solar rollout" https://www.politico.eu/article/solar-power-global-emissions-climate-crisis-eu-blindsided-by-spectacular-solar-rollout/
« In part, the explosive growth is down to plummeting prices for solar panels being mass-produced in China. The war in Ukraine also created a major incentive for countries to push ahead with solar installations as a way to lower their dependency on Russian energy. [...]
But those gains are also raising questions about the sector's future.
As solar becomes increasingly widespread and electricity prices plummet in the middle of the day when the sun is brightest, some see a risk that the incentive to deploy solar power also decreases, said Esparrago.
That makes grid improvements and the rapid rollout of storage technologies like batteries crucial, experts argue. But the EU is still lagging behind in that area.»
#renewables #peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Tuesday, 01-Aug-2023 02:11:41 JST
simsa03
Christoph Steitz & Nina Chestney, "Analysis: Siemens Energy's turbine troubles rattle wind sector" https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/siemens-energys-turbine-troubles-rattle-wind-sector-2023-07-07/
« Siemens Energy shocked the wind sector in late June when it warned of faulty components and possible design faults in its onshore wind turbines.
It said it could not yet quantify the cost, but anticipated the issues would take at least 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) to fix. Company sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, have said the final bill could be even higher. »
See also:
Elliot Smith, "Wind turbine troubles have sent one stock tumbling. There are fears it could be a much wider issue" https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/03/siemens-energy-wind-turbine-problems-could-be-an-industry-wide-issue.html
« [Christoph Zipf, spokesman for industry body WindEurope] said that 20 years ago, a typical wind turbine would have 1 million watts of capacity; today, European original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, are testing 15 MW turbines.
“This means that turbines have become bigger as well, posing challenges to components (quality, materials, longevity). The introduction of competitive auctions has also been a driving factor in this cost reduction,” Zipf added. [...]
According to ONYX Insight, which monitors wind turbines and tracks over 14,000 across 30 countries, most turbines are designed and certified for 20 years but contain components that will fail during that time due to a “compromise between the cost of the system and reliability. [...]
In turbines built in 2023, more than 40% of gearboxes will need to be replaced after 20 years of project life, according to ONYX, along with over 20% of main bearings and more than 5% of blades. »
#peakrenewables -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Saturday, 29-Jul-2023 23:29:31 JST
simsa03
Batteries are prone to ignite and incinerate. Are there any studies on the insurance risks of large scale storage batteries necessary for the back-up of renewable energy? As they so essential for grid stability, can they be insured at all? How does that impact electricity prices?
#energy #infrastructure #renewables #peakrenewables #batteries -
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simsa03 (simsa03@gnusocial.jp)'s status on Friday, 14-Jul-2023 00:54:45 JST
simsa03
Talking about "reducing the demand for FF" is ridiculous in at least four ways:
a) It prevents states in Africa to jumpstart their economies to benefit their citizens with cheap energy systems (resources and power plants), and, via surplus value, become capable in the first place to invest in environmental protection. (Not to forget the #ecocolonialism involved in the vast green land grap in Africa.)
b) It ignores the life cycle of #energy systems because even after a new source of energy has been found and disseminated, the older energy sources keep delivering and *increase* their output. It takes roughly 60 years for a new energy source to substitute and leave behind an older one.
c) It ignores how much FF are involved in the production, the spread, and the integration of "renewable" energy systems in a given #infrastructure: From mining and processing of materials, to production and spreading of units, to the hitherto unsolved problems of recycling of these new systems (and thus "loss" of the engery invested in their production).
d) Even in the sub-sector of electricity production, relying on #renewables means relying on fossil fuels (esp. when #nuclear power is abandoned). As demand increases, #peakrenewables is already in play, only sugarcoated by high subsidies. (Germany alone will have 14,000 wind turbine units of its 30,000 onshore units decommissoned after 2026. Germany will be lucky to keep the current electricity output of the wind turbine units; it rather becomes increasingly harder and less likely that more output will be generated in the future -- at least within a market economy.)
The chatter about "reducing the demand" is the result of an individualist consumer approach, which suggests to cut back on holiday flights etc. With regard to infrastructures of whole societies, that is a mistaken approach. -
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simsa04 (simsa04@gnusocial.net)'s status on Tuesday, 25-Apr-2023 12:19:22 JST 
simsa04
Jon Henley, "European countries pledge huge expansion of North Sea wind farms" https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/24/european-countries-pledge-huge-expansion-of-north-sea-wind-farms
«Aiming to both curb reliance on Russian gas and radically reduce the use of CO2-emitting fossil fuels, the nine countries aim to boost their combined North Sea offshore wind capacity to 120GW by 2030 and 300GW by 2050.»
«Britain has 45 offshore wind farms producing 14GW, with plans to expand capacity to 50GW by 2030. Germany has 30 producing 8GW, followed by the Netherlands with 2.8GW and Denmark and Belgium, both with 2.3GW.
France aims to expand massively to 40GW by 2050, an official said. They added: “Offshore wind energy will probably be the main source of renewable energy production between 2030 and 2050, far ahead of solar energy and land wind farms.”
The investment required to ensure the North Sea wind energy targets are met is huge – the EU recently calculated €800bn would be needed to reach 300GW by 2050 – and wind energy companies have said significant state funding will be essential.
Britain has 45 offshore wind farms producing 14GW, with plans to expand capacity to 50GW by 2030. Germany has 30 producing 8GW, followed by the Netherlands with 2.8GW and Denmark and Belgium, both with 2.3GW.»
We will never see the open sea again. They are destroying landscapes to an extent comparable only to the most awful industrialisation.
#peakrenewables
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