@Humpleupagus @Eiregoat @Paleloon @Punished_Potatus @WashedOutGundamPilot A recent pre-published study by Wolfinger & Perry (2021) is the first to test if promiscuity predicts marriage using two longitudinal, nationally representative datasets. In a preliminary study, they found that number of sexual partners predicted a lower liklihood of marriage for women. In a follow-up using the full sample of men and women, they found that the recent number of sexual partners, but not lifetime sexual partners, predicted a lower liklihood of getting married. Promiscuity did not impact the odds of marriage in the long term, so the authors concluded: “Our findings cast doubt on the premises supporting the controversial notion that more readily available sexual activity with numerous partners will reduce men’s and women’s desire or desirability, and ultimately, likelihood of marrying.”

The ability to form a relationship that lasts long enough to get married is a good indicator of pair bonding, particularly when we remember that humans are serially monogamous. At the very least we must concede that a pair bond has been formed. The authors are correct to interpret the results as showing that “sexual activity of single women does not appear to make them “undesirable” as marriage partners” and that “our analyses suggest that this does not manifest itself in long-term singleness.”

Nonetheless we must also consider relationship outcomes, such as relationship duration or divorce. We might also consider relationship quality — the “bond” in the pair bond — as well as infidelity. Wolfinger & Perry (2021) additionally review the research showing that, yes, men and women with more sexual partners are indeed more likely to divorce and more likely to report lower relationship happiness (citing Kahn and London 1991; Kelly and Conley 1987; Larson and Holman 1994; Janus and Janus 1993; Kahn and London 1991; Teachman 2003).

Khan & London (1991) used a bivariate probit model, which can be described as a quasi experimental methodology, intended to estimate the probability of the outcome of a correlation being due either to a causal effect of a given variable or to another variable. While they found that virgins were less likely to divorce than non-virgins, the probit model showed that when third variables accounting for divorce were included, there was no longer a difference in divorce rates between virgins and non-virgins.

This is another piece of evidence indicating that sex is not a cause of poor pair bonding outcomes, but that pair bonding outcomes are a predisposition. Women more likely to get divorced were also more likely to have premarital sex, but premarital sex was not the cause of divorce.