WellsiteGeo
Does anyone have an estimated date for the Iranian truck-nuke to detonate in downtown (Americaville ; details don't matter).
That's what you get by decapitation - all the independent snakes virtue-signalling amongst themselves.
I'll put my pint-voucher on May Day. Because America's "communist!" reflex will misdirect the retaliation onto one of their (America's) nominal allies.
Isaac Ji Kuo
@Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo It's not so easy to deliver a "nuke" or sizable dirty bomb via truck. Trying to deliver the components/materials to a suitable staging point on land is likely to get detected unless a submarine is used, and at that point it is much easier to simply detonate the device in a harbor. No need for a risky land based staging point.
It's different for drug smuggling.
DeterioratedStucco
@isaackuo
I'd have thought the risk/reward calculation applies only while Iran doesn't face an existential threat. Once it does (which is not under any American control, for sure), then what?
Isaac Ji Kuo
@SoftwareTheron @Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo You have a point there.
My mind did not go there, because I don't foresee Iran facing an existential threat.
This could change, of course, and also I may simply not be seeing an existential threat that's already out there.
Isaac Ji Kuo
@Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo With drug smuggling, it's okay if lots of attempts get detected. It's just part of the cost of doing business. It's not going to make the DEA go after you any harder or softer either way.
But if nuclear materials get detected, it becomes a big international ... problem. It's the sort of thing that will result in a humongous international coalition regime change invasion.
The risk/reward calculus is totally different.
Isaac Ji Kuo
@SoftwareTheron @Infoseepage @WellsiteGeo In any case, I don't really see a compelling case to try delivery by truck, when delivery by some sort of submersible is all around easier and less risky.
Isaac Ji Kuo
@Infoseepage @SoftwareTheron @WellsiteGeo (And true submarine narco subs aren't going to deliver 100%. We have no idea how many of them sank with total loss of crew and cargo, but ... based on real life submarine experience ... the number is likely high.)
Isaac Ji Kuo
@Infoseepage @SoftwareTheron @WellsiteGeo The reason drug smugglers don't just switch to true subs is that they are a lot more expensive to operate. Their economics are such that they make more money with semi-submersibles even if they regularly get caught.
But Iran has a literal nation-state military budget. They have already spent a considerable amount of time, effort, and expertise on developing credible submarines.
Isaac Ji Kuo
@Infoseepage @SoftwareTheron @WellsiteGeo The problem is that drug smugglers also know about using sail boats, so there's already a massive infrastructure of coast guard patrols detecting, tracking, and intercepting them.
But they have a zero percent success rate in intercepting submarine narco subs. Zero percent.
And Iran has midget subs that are more sophisticated than the relative junk drug smugglers use.
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