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   Flat Moon Theories (sirpantangelini@noauthority.social)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 22:57:10 JST Flat Moon Theories

   Satoshi Nakomoto is the Jesus of Commerce.

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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 22:57:05 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • 🌲-alist
     • cjd
     My prediction is that USD will be the last reserve currency in history.
     
     The FED will flog the whole world like a red-headed stepchild because they know they can, they know every central bank needs USD to remain solvent and they get to print it.
     
     BRICS coin and other joke projects will never get off the ground because everybody wants to be the guy printing the money and giving it to the other guy, and nobody wants to be the other guy.
     
     Same for UN Kumbaya World Currency bullshit, no chance. Because the FED is perfectly happy being king of the world, and everyone who is not the FED doesn't fucking matter.
     
     Likewise, no other crypto will ever threaten Bitcoin because it's a greasy pole, you have the guy on top and you have everyone else. Even after the billions of dollars floated into Ethereum, and even with a decade long PR war against Bitcoin, ETH still failed.
     
     Bitcoin is the kryptonite of banks, because if you lend Bitcoin you don't have, and then suddenly everyone decides to take custody, boom, you're bankrupt. Story of every exchange that has ever been wiped out.
     
     When the USD finally collapses, it's most likely in my opinion that the world reserve will become Bitcoin. That's because for all it's faults, it at least doesn't require you to trust anyone.
     lainy likes this.
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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 22:57:06 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • 🌲-alist
     > the CBDC
     
     The "CBDC" already exists, it's USDT / USDC, and it's on a dozen different chains with markets to swap it with 1000 different other cryptos. And every year, this whole system becomes bigger and messier and more politically entrenched.
     
     > if they make it illegal
     Where? In every single country in the world?
     
     Not to mention half the oligarchs in any given country are already secretly stashing Bitcoin, even while they're telling each other that they hate it (because it undermines the money-printer that made them all wealthy in the first place).
     
     100 years ago, they made gold illegal in the US. It took 40 years before the system collapsed. If they were to try the same thing again with Bitcoin, I recon it'd be gone within a decade.
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     🌲-alist (threalist@social.fbxl.net)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 22:57:07 JST 🌲-alist

     in reply to

     • cjd
     My assumption is that they normalize it, then pull the switch part of the bait and switch, and suddenly the CBDC is the only legal one allowed.
     
     Sure, you can't stop Bitcoin, but it won't matter if they make it illegal.
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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 22:57:08 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • 🌲-alist
     1. People used digital currency before Bitcoin (Credit cards).
     2. Bitcoin makes it impossible for banks to lend money without risk of getting bankrupted out in a short squeeze, so no, it was not good for them, at all.
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     🌲-alist (threalist@social.fbxl.net)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 22:57:09 JST 🌲-alist

     in reply to
     More likely that Satoshi was a three letter agency to accelerate and normalize the adoption of digital currencies.
     
     ..so maybe a better metaphor would be a Judas goat
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     ?? Humpleupagus ?? (humpleupagus@eveningzoo.club)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 23:04:35 JST ?? Humpleupagus ??

     in reply to

     • 🌲-alist
     • cjd
     Back to bartering using multiple mediaries like it used to be.
     
     The only problem bitcoin and other crypto currencies have is the hard finality.
     
     Negotiable instruments — checks, notes, sometimes bills of lading — have been the classic instruments used to facilitate trade and have very specific, nuanced rules that facilitate those transactions, and it works. The lack of warranties and ability to unwind transactions is missing in crypto. See UCC Article III for more fun!
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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Tuesday, 08-Jul-2025 23:53:34 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • ?? Humpleupagus ??
     • 🌲-alist
     > Back to bartering
     
     It's easy to imagine super-smart barter systems taking over everything, like where everybody has a stock portfolio and I pay you by swapping stocks I want for stocks you want and sending them to you. But the problem with that is market depth. Shallow markets are crap to trade in, every time you buy or sell, the price swings wildly and you get screwed. Or else, you need to coordinate trades in a bunch of different markets at the same time, so then you get screwed by high frequency bots.
     
     Consider forex for a second: There's a market for like South African Rand vs. Australian Dollar, but that market is kind of fake - nobody really uses it for large transactions. If you need to go from ZAR to AUD at scale, you'll typically swap ZAR to USD and then USD to AUD. Central banks basically just worry about the market for their currency vs. USD, and let the rest sort itself out.
     
     So the point I'm making is that there's a really strong natural pull to make one asset become the global medium of exchange.
     
     > crypto currencies have is the hard finality
     
     This isn't really a problem for reserve currency transactions. Historically these type of transactions only happen between financial institutions when they are settling up. They're currently done as international wires which are generally considered to be final already.
     
     Most individual transactions are via credit card, and in this case merchants are required to carry a balance with the processing company in order to cover any possible chargebacks. I don't see credit card usage going anywhere anytime soon, but once you receive payment, you will be able to pull it out as BTC which is final (you already can).
     
     That said, there IS a major problem with BTC world reserve currency:
     
     It becomes really dangerous to borrow money. This brings back the Gold Standard days when the availability of gold was sometimes every plentiful and other times very scarce, and this caused borrowers to get wiped out when they were in debt during lean times.
     
     Of course for those who believe the 1890s was a better time, this might be considered a feature. But we should at least recognize that it will lay waste to the corpo-governmental ecosystem as we know it.
     ?? Humpleupagus ?? likes this.
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     ?? Humpleupagus ?? (humpleupagus@eveningzoo.club)'s status on Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025 00:03:20 JST ?? Humpleupagus ??

     in reply to

     • 🌲-alist
     • cjd
     • Nicholas Conrad
     Please give me an example of how you put 40000 tons of mangos on a ship in Argentina and get it to market in California using only cash without any other instrument. I'll wait here.
     
     Smart contracts are generally self-executing, and thus lack a primary feature of a contract. The ability to breach if you got fucked.
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     Nicholas Conrad (nicholas@aklp.club)'s status on Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025 00:03:21 JST Nicholas Conrad

     in reply to

     • ?? Humpleupagus ??
     • 🌲-alist
     • cjd

     The lack of warranties and ability to unwind transactions is missing in crypto.

     This was also a feature of cash and people never had issues. Also power to 'unwind' your transactions is the same power to freeze your transactions ala truckers honking.

     Crypto has smart contracts if you're into that kind of thing though.

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     ?? Humpleupagus ?? (humpleupagus@eveningzoo.club)'s status on Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025 00:04:54 JST ?? Humpleupagus ??

     in reply to

     • ?? Humpleupagus ??
     • 🌲-alist
     • cjd
     • Nicholas Conrad
     In the case of a check, I can call the drawee bank and stop payment for example.
     
     I could refuse to pay a note.
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     ?? Humpleupagus ?? (humpleupagus@eveningzoo.club)'s status on Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025 00:26:57 JST ?? Humpleupagus ??

     in reply to

     • 🌲-alist
     • cjd
     I'm not sure why bitcoin would be necessary at settlement level. Bitcoin is really based in distrust — its design to establish ownership and transfer with basically zero trust.
     
     Banks on the otherhand know each other and generally trust each other from course of dealing. So I don't see what bitcoin adds. Banks could make up any agreed ledger or currency and settle upon it. I don't get why a zero trust coin is required in a high trust settlement procedure.
     
     I think bitcoin is fine for small transactions, buying candy bars. It just doesn't scale for commerce.
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     ?? Humpleupagus ?? (humpleupagus@eveningzoo.club)'s status on Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025 00:47:42 JST ?? Humpleupagus ??

     in reply to

     • 🌲-alist
     • cjd
     Me rn
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     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Wednesday, 09-Jul-2025 00:47:43 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • ?? Humpleupagus ??
     • 🌲-alist
     > Banks on the otherhand know each other and generally trust each other from course of dealing
     
     The degree to which they trust one another is their credit lines, beyond those credit lines they require settlement - which is as easy as a transaction in a FED master account or a transfer of some treasury bonds...
     
     That said, it's very easy for them to trust each other because they all keep their money in the US, typically with FED master accounts or treasury notes, so if one of them goes rogue the other one can sue them in the US and directly access their money.
     
     Take away US hegemony and you're right back at the 1800s with every country randomly declaring each others' assets subject to seizure and authorizing piracy on the high seas...