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   cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Friday, 11-Apr-2025 20:05:05 JST cjd

   in reply to

   • FourOh-LLC
   • Wolf480pl
   China has been Chinaing for at least the last 2000 years, this is nothing new, and there's no reason to think they're ever going to "break" from it.
   
   But they do always lose to the west.
   
   Maybe because as much as they may hate the west, losing to a Christian nation and being allowed to live is still far superior to "winning" but then getting beaten by some other Chinese faction who grinds you up and dumps you in the ocean to feed the fish.
   • pistolero likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     FourOh-LLC (fouroh-llc@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Friday, 11-Apr-2025 20:05:06 JST FourOh-LLC

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     China and Communism is a perfect match, and no matter what happens the population of China will always gravitate back towards some form of Socialism or Communism, or Democracy. This is the most consequential fact, the rest flows from here.
     
     The control and the horrors that go with it will grind down China's population more and more, until they break. Then, of course, comes next what I wrote in my first paragraph.
   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Friday, 11-Apr-2025 20:05:07 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd
     > Rumor is they're currently using North Korean soldiers

     Pretty sure that's confirmed at this point, not just a rumor.

     > They might also do another mobilization. Putin is fairly popular right now

     The social contract in Russia is if you stay out of politics, the politics stays out of you. You're the only person I hear claiming that Putin could get away with another mobilization, and it seems very unlikely to me.

     > actual Chinese soldiers
     yeah, that would be big...

   • Embed this notice
     Wolf480pl (wolf480pl@mstdn.io)'s status on Friday, 11-Apr-2025 20:05:08 JST Wolf480pl

     in reply to

     @cjd can Russia invade more into Europe without either pulling out of Ukraine, or doing a mobilization?

   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Friday, 11-Apr-2025 20:05:08 JST cjd

     in reply to

     • Wolf480pl
     They won't pull out of UA. Rumor is they're currently using North Korean soldiers, they might start using actual Chinese soldiers. They might also do another mobilization. Putin is fairly popular right now so it's not outside the realm of possibility.
   • Embed this notice
     cjd (cjd@pkteerium.xyz)'s status on Friday, 11-Apr-2025 20:05:09 JST cjd
     China's negotiation chip vs. the tariffs is funding/arming Russia to advance the invasion of Europe. The only reason Russia has lasted so long is because they have Chinese backing...
     
     America's angle is to do precisely the same thing, but pushing India to invade China. That's why America is so gung-ho on Indians right now.
     
     Russia *will* flip and screw China, eventually, because the alternative is to end up being cold North Korea with basically no relationships to any other country. Russia's entire state apparatus is predicated on being in the outer orbit of the west, that works for them, so they need to be let back in.
     
     They're going to play this one out as long as possible, bouncing between offers from the US and China. The bad news for Europeans is that China is going to offer to help Russia invade Europe to give Trump a black eye, and the US is going to offer to let Russia keep the land, to try to win them away from China.
     
     Europe isn't really party to the negotiation, they're more the piece of meat that's being carved up on the table. Western Europe will survive because these countries are professional survivors, but the EU is unlikely to make it.