China's negotiation chip vs. the tariffs is funding/arming Russia to advance the invasion of Europe. The only reason Russia has lasted so long is because they have Chinese backing...

America's angle is to do precisely the same thing, but pushing India to invade China. That's why America is so gung-ho on Indians right now.

Russia *will* flip and screw China, eventually, because the alternative is to end up being cold North Korea with basically no relationships to any other country. Russia's entire state apparatus is predicated on being in the outer orbit of the west, that works for them, so they need to be let back in.

They're going to play this one out as long as possible, bouncing between offers from the US and China. The bad news for Europeans is that China is going to offer to help Russia invade Europe to give Trump a black eye, and the US is going to offer to let Russia keep the land, to try to win them away from China.

Europe isn't really party to the negotiation, they're more the piece of meat that's being carved up on the table. Western Europe will survive because these countries are professional survivors, but the EU is unlikely to make it.