Paul Cantrell
The actual outcome of this election with •the whole US population• as the denominator:
22% voted for Harris
23% voted for Trump
<1% voted for other
26% eligible but did not vote*
28% not eligible to vote
* (whether by choice or by voter suppression)
Numbers might shift a tiny bit as last votes are counted, but this is close to the final tally.
Just sit with that for one quality minute. Think about what stories people are telling about this election. Then think about what stories are true.
Paul Cantrell
(Please lmk if I screwed up the math; I haven't had lunch yet)
Paul Cantrell
A relevant article:
https://www.wonkette.com/p/donald-trumps-margin-size-is-almost
Paul Cantrell
@lonepundit
There is no credible evidence I'm aware of that Russia et al have ever manipulated vote totals, and there's •ample• reason — both in process and data — to think they haven't.
There is, on the other hand, overwhelming evidence that Russia at least has manipulated •voters• with disinformation and fake engament designed to foster infighting, exacerbate divisions, and de-motivate people. That, I think, very much shows in the numbers I posted.
Lone Pundit
@inthehands The election numbers have been explained to us in so many ways. None of the explanations include manipulation of the vote totals. I guess Russia and China decided to sit this one out.
2xfo
@inthehands
I'm curious whether the unable to vote population count includes children
Paul Cantrell
@RnDanger
Yes, I tried to make it so
Paul Cantrell
Re @davids7’s question: my numbers are back-of-napkin calculations using press reports of current vote tally + sloppy web searching for US population and voting-eligible population. Please take my numbers with the appropriate gain of salt.
The broad “each group is about about 1/4” conclusion should be approximately correct, but don't stare too hard at exact percentages until somebody does this calculation a bit more carefully.
Paul Cantrell
The broader point of my OP here is that there are a lot of analyses circulating that use more meticulously gathered data about •the wrong questions• — or at least about flawed questions that ignore over half the population of the country.
The Janx Devil
@inthehands Looks like a narrow majority of the whole population comprises people who were eligible to vote and yet decided that voting to stop Trump wasn’t their bag. Hard to put a positive spin on that.
Paul Cantrell
@janxdevil
Keep in mind that the 26% and the 28% both include people whose vote was suppressed: wanted to vote, but couldn't. So probably not quite a majority are as you describe.
Still damned depressing.
Paul Cantrell
Like…just for starters, if you're walking down the street thinking, “Did HALF of these people really vote for this miserable fascist shitstain?,” the answer to that question is, “No, about a quarter did.”
…Which is still pretty damn depressing, but…well, I find that that thought does give me a substantially different picture of the country I live in.
Paul Cantrell
@coolandnormal @jwi
Indeed, and there's a reason why certain people are so keen to maximize how many people are ineligible.
Queer Like The Slur
@jwi @inthehands I reckon the usa would be more useful if those people were eligible to vote.
JW
@inthehands
I reckon it would be more useful to base the figures on US citizens over 18.
Paul Cantrell
@BillSeitz
Yup, and then half either didn't care or •wanted• to vote but couldn't, and we have very little idea how the balance between those two shakes out, so…grand, sweeping judgements that are actually accurate about the US seem to be elusive.
Bill Seitz
@inthehands of course, only a quarter voted Against him, too
T Alex Beamish
@inthehands I'm reminded of an episode of All In The Family, where Mike was a Democrat, and his FIL Archie was a die-hard Republican. Except Mike discovered that Archie hadn't voted in ages (I don't remember exactly). So Mike's question was, "How can you criticize the government when you didn't even vote?"
It's stunning that 28% of voters just didn't vote. Why not?
Paul Cantrell
@talexb
With both the 26% and the 28%, the “why” is an important question to consider carefully. For starters, please note the asterisk in my OP.
Paul Cantrell
Priscilla Feral
@inthehands 93 million too indifferent or sexist to vote and instead sat on their hands. What a disgrace.
Paul Cantrell
Several replies fail to distinguish “check out” from “shut out.”
Please, folks, please note the asterisk in the OP. It's an important asterisk.
Paul Cantrell
@bityz This one is for you: https://hachyderm.io/@inthehands/113511777335121868
bityz
@inthehands I think it is "accurate enough" to say that eligible voters who didn't vote were "fine with letting others decide". Given the OP's numbers, this means out of eligible voters,
Around 68% were fine with Trump.
Raven667
@inthehands I don't want to harsh your mellow but I haven't seen any reliable study/evidence that the vote isn't representative of the missing ~25% eligible voters, the bias due to vote suppression targets likely Harris voters more, but even if you had 100% of eligible voters, while it might change the outcome (yay!), the ratio is probably not going to change much, certainly not 70/30, this brand of fascism is way more popular amongst some powerful demographics than we'd both like.
Paul Cantrell
@talexb
Indeed, where “odd” mostly means “racist.”
T Alex Beamish
@inthehands I saw the '*' -- for a country that styles itself as a democracy, it's shameful that voting is so challenging. Gerrymandering, purging voter rolls, weird campaign finance rules and all sorts of shenanigans. It's so odd.
Dizzy
@inthehands or 50% doesn’t care about democracy
Paul Cantrell
@BubblegumYeti
https://hachyderm.io/@inthehands/113511777335121868
Raven667
@inthehands @coolandnormal @jwi there isn't enough consensus and political power to enact this now, but I think the nation would better if anyone who lives here more than half the year was considered a resident and vote in local elections and easily become a citizen with no more administrivia than getting a passport. If you chose to live under the rules of a location you have a stake and should have a say in how those rules are made. It shouldn't be substantially more difficult than moving state
Paul Cantrell
@mmm @davids7
I like to include children too, because they are certainly stakeholders. Climate policy in particular will affect them even more than those eligible to vote. The same for non-citizens: they cannot vote, but they are affected by the outcomes of elections.
If we are asking “Who supports the outcome of this election?” and “What kind of mandate does the Trump admin have?,” we must remember those people who, rightly or wrongly, are shut out of voting.
Mark Mullen
In my view, this is the best data.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/
The VEP/VAP difference is key.
Also lots of turnout figures are out of registered rather than VAP.
👻™ Your Favourite Goblin🐊
@inthehands I had a friend the other day saying that at least 51% of Americans voted for Trump and I had to take a minute to tell her how incorrect that statement was
fu
Paul Cantrell
@SebastianArcq
That is one of the zillion dollar questions!
How many of those people were indifferent? How many had an opinion and wanted to vote, but could not? Of those latter, do we disproportionately prevent from voting people who support one candidate vs the other?
Disenfranchisement is a long-time Republican strategy, and we've recently learned that Russia was running an active demotivation campaign. How effective were those strategies? Did either alter the outcome?
Sebastian Arcq
@inthehands Of those 26% eligible but did not vote and those 28% not eligible to vote, is there any reason to assume they would have voted different the 45% who voted for either Trump or Harris? That the outcome would have been different, had they voted? Just curious!
ozeng
@inthehands I come from a land of compulsory voting, what’s voter suppression? Don’t you have postal voting and early voting options to make it more accessible to register your vote?
fu
Cybarbie
@inthehands So 49% were totally fine with MAGA fascist government gotcha.
Paul Cantrell
JW
@fu @inthehands
No, you are missing my point, there are 2 questions.
1 who has voting right, but doesn't vote and why.
2 who doesn't have voting rights and what are the arguments for granting them.
fu
@jwi @inthehands if those are truly questions, than why would you say
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