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   kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)'s status on Saturday, 16-Nov-2024 06:24:49 JST kravietz 🦇

   Why do I find it unlikely that #Putin is interested in any truce at this stage? Because a truce without recognising the occupied territories and removing sanctions is a death sentence for the Russian economy. And not only that:

   1. the end of the war (truce, ceasefire) is the end of ‘war communism’ with its euphoria and moral boosting in the media
   2. a million men return from the front with PTSD and - above all - first-hand knowledge of the crimes of Russian commanders against their own soldiers, corruption, looting and crimes against Ukrainians; dozens of their relatives, acquaintances etc. learn about it first-hand
   3. these people are returning to cities with failing infrastructure and widespread corruption, and it is highly doubtful that they will let any official yell at them
   4. the attitude of civilian Russians towards the participants of the “SMO” (special military operation) is ambiguous and far from the myth of the ‘hero’ spread in the media

   In conclusion, the participants of the ‘SMO’ would return …. to what? To an USSR with its economy as it was in 1970-1980, with galloping inflation, an economy dominated by military industry and a ‘hydrocarbon bonus’ belonging to a long distant past. Those who survived will probably return, and have a sigh of relief…. but what next?

   The belief in the inevitability of a truce at this stage stems, in my opinion, from the Western perception of the Russian economic and military situation, which is objectively dire. Any rational government in this situation would seek to save statehood, if only through a truce. But rationality means using logic to deal with the facts in a specific conceptual grid. The fact that the very decision to launch an ‘SMO’ was irrational for us and fully justified for Putin means that he lives in a drastically different conceptual grid in which the preservation of statehood in general is not necessarily the highest value. As Putin himself used to say, ‘why would we even need a world without Russia’ - and he means that Russia without a victorious leader, personified by Putin, is not a ‘proper Russia’ anymore.

   The above means, in my opinion, that regardless of the hopes of some of the world’s leaders, no truce will take place any time soon, primarily because in the formula I described above (without the removal of sanctions) it would benefit everyone except Putin in the long run. And Putin does not want a formula that benefits anyone but him. In his conceptual grid, win-win does not exist.

   Unless Trump’s and the EU/NATO’s intentions include some actually treacherous towards Ukraine plan for the allies to capitulate to Moscow in order to force Ukraine’s surrender (after a long and extremely bloody resistance on its part) then the war, even with the current, relatively ‘lukewarm’, level of military and economic support for #Ukraine, will have to drag on for a few more years, but will end in the actual collapse of Russia as it did in 1991.

   • NeonPurpleStar :heart_bi: likes this.
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     kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)'s status on Sunday, 17-Nov-2024 03:08:08 JST kravietz 🦇

     in reply to

     • Riku Voipio

     @suihkulokki

     I wouldn’t say his fabric of reality has “no connection to the real world” - it all starts at the system of values. Putin is similar to us and he speaks in a similar terms, which is confusing for us Europeans.

     So it’s easier to use an example from an entirely alien culture - take ISIS with their “as much as you value life, we value death”. They did truly terrible things with themselves and their prisoners to demonstrate to the West that this is actually the case and the values they believe in. West somehow, reluctantly, accepted this. I mean not their values, but the fact that there exists a movement with values so shockingly different that it can’t be mediated with. ISIS could be only isolated or destroyed.

     But with Putinism it’s the same thing really - Russians have been demonstrating for decades that the well-being of their own people has little value for them, what does matter is the imperial euphoria and feeling of “being respected”. All these decades we were telling ourselves - and them too “no, you’re just saying that, but deep in your soul you want peace and welfare state”.

     But what Putin does is not entirely detached from reality - quite the opposite, he consistently executed a plan to establish the reality he wanted, which included fast paced growing of Russian army, state repression apparatus, censorship and energy blackmail leverages on EU countries.

     We happily excused all these, while actively denying the reality that Putin’s actions are 100% consistent with his offensive plan.

     Putin indeed did some mistakes which can be described as detached from reality, for example assuming Ukraine will surrender in a week, that majority of Ukrainians will welcome Russians and that EU/NATO won’t help at all.

     Cognitive bias was present on both sides, but it’s not unusual - Soviets in 1940-1941 denied any possibility that Germany is preparing to attack USSR in spite of overwhelming evidence that it was their plan.

   • Embed this notice
     Riku Voipio (suihkulokki@society.oftrolls.com)'s status on Sunday, 17-Nov-2024 03:08:10 JST Riku Voipio

     in reply to

     @kravietz Great article! The "people living in different conceptual reality" really bugs the hell out of me. Putinis decisions are clearly based on fabric of reality that has no connection to the real world. How do you have a useful discussion with such people?

     Nevertheless, people are going to try. Big corporations in europe are really yearning for cheap russian gas.

     Alfred M. Szmidt repeated this.
   • Embed this notice
     kravietz 🦇 (kravietz@agora.echelon.pl)'s status on Sunday, 17-Nov-2024 03:08:57 JST kravietz 🦇

     in reply to

     • Anders Puck Nielsen
     • Tobias Merkendorf

     @t_mkdf

     By “surrender” I mean limiting military and financial support for Ukraine to a level that would severely limit its defense capabilities, resulting in actual front line collapse.

     In terms of outcomes, that would mean Russia executing its rather aspirational plan of reaching administrative borders of the four regions it declared “annexed”.

     At this stage Ukraine would be likely forced to comply with Moscow’s 2022 conditions for peace, that is reduction of armed forces, internal legislation changes (Russian language and Ukrainian national symbolics), no NATO membership and legally ceasing the four regions in south-east.

     And I don’t think it would happen fast, because Russia has no reserves on its own that would allow them to quickly establish control even against guerilla-style resistance. And I’m pretty sure Ukraine will continue fighting as hell with whatever it will have at its disposal.

     Still the critical factor is the sanctions - in case of Ukraine’s defense collapse described above, the Western countries would have no reason to remove the sanctions other than greed of their own business sector. Politically, removal of sanctions only makes sense if its traded for some Russia’s concessions and that’s possible where actual negotiations would take place in this “collapse” scenario - for example, territorial concessions limited to the current line of contact and limited political interference in Ukraine’s legislation.

     Disclaimer: this is of course the worst case scenario which I believe is very unlikely, because even if US decides to stop any support for Ukraine the EU and especially Baltic and Eastern European countries have plenty of reasons to do everything possible to make sure this doesn’t happen.

     @anderspuck

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     Tobias Merkendorf (t_mkdf@ruhr.social)'s status on Sunday, 17-Nov-2024 03:08:58 JST Tobias Merkendorf

     in reply to

     • Anders Puck Nielsen

     @kravietz also: what would surrender look like? How could it be achieved?

     A full surrender seems unlikely. And even if it would occur, with e.g. occupation, it would not be the end of Putin's woes. Occupation is costly. And would be a strain on russia. Like a half-truce. Mobilzed will return home. War economy will need to shift.

     I see only outcomes where russia becomes less stable. The point is that there are outcomes where they will drag the rest of the he World with them...

     @anderspuck

     Alfred M. Szmidt repeated this.