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Why do I find it unlikely that #Putin is interested in any truce at this stage? Because a truce without recognising the occupied territories and removing sanctions is a death sentence for the Russian economy. And not only that:

1. the end of the war (truce, ceasefire) is the end of ‘war communism’ with its euphoria and moral boosting in the media
2. a million men return from the front with PTSD and - above all - first-hand knowledge of the crimes of Russian commanders against their own soldiers, corruption, looting and crimes against Ukrainians; dozens of their relatives, acquaintances etc. learn about it first-hand
3. these people are returning to cities with failing infrastructure and widespread corruption, and it is highly doubtful that they will let any official yell at them
4. the attitude of civilian Russians towards the participants of the “SMO” (special military operation) is ambiguous and far from the myth of the ‘hero’ spread in the media

In conclusion, the participants of the ‘SMO’ would return …. to what? To an USSR with its economy as it was in 1970-1980, with galloping inflation, an economy dominated by military industry and a ‘hydrocarbon bonus’ belonging to a long distant past. Those who survived will probably return, and have a sigh of relief…. but what next?

The belief in the inevitability of a truce at this stage stems, in my opinion, from the Western perception of the Russian economic and military situation, which is objectively dire. Any rational government in this situation would seek to save statehood, if only through a truce. But rationality means using logic to deal with the facts in a specific conceptual grid. The fact that the very decision to launch an ‘SMO’ was irrational for us and fully justified for Putin means that he lives in a drastically different conceptual grid in which the preservation of statehood in general is not necessarily the highest value. As Putin himself used to say, ‘why would we even need a world without Russia’ - and he means that Russia without a victorious leader, personified by Putin, is not a ‘proper Russia’ anymore.

The above means, in my opinion, that regardless of the hopes of some of the world’s leaders, no truce will take place any time soon, primarily because in the formula I described above (without the removal of sanctions) it would benefit everyone except Putin in the long run. And Putin does not want a formula that benefits anyone but him. In his conceptual grid, win-win does not exist.

Unless Trump’s and the EU/NATO’s intentions include some actually treacherous towards Ukraine plan for the allies to capitulate to Moscow in order to force Ukraine’s surrender (after a long and extremely bloody resistance on its part) then the war, even with the current, relatively ‘lukewarm’, level of military and economic support for #Ukraine, will have to drag on for a few more years, but will end in the actual collapse of Russia as it did in 1991.