Conversation

Notices

1. Embed this notice
   Matthew Loxton (mloxton@med-mastodon.com)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 02:45:11 JST Matthew Loxton

   Welcome to October. Russia lost a thousand troops and 55 armoured vehicles in 20 minutes of fighting in Kupiansk, NATO has a new Secretary General, and the Earth has two moons

   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 02:45:10 JST feld

     in reply to
     @mloxton A thousand in *20 minutes*?????!
   • Embed this notice
     Matthew Loxton (mloxton@med-mastodon.com)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:07:38 JST Matthew Loxton

     in reply to

     • feld

     @feld
     Yup
     They are resorting to "meat wave" WW-1 tactics in an age of long range artillery, and drones that can hunt down a single person, and do it at scale. They even have stop groups whose job it is to shoot their own troops who are retreating.

     feld likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:08:41 JST feld

     in reply to
     @mloxton found this link which has some details on it
     
     This is just nuts. I don't understand how people can assume Russia is going to win when they've already lost over 500,000 soldiers.
     
     
     https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10/01/frontline-report-russians-lost-60-armored-units-in-single-attack-near-kupiansk/
   • Embed this notice
     EvilSandmich (evilsandmich@poa.st)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:18:27 JST EvilSandmich

     in reply to

     • feld
     @feld @mloxton >I don't understand how people can assume Russia is going to win when they've already lost over 500,000 soldiers
     
     Because they haven't 🙄
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:18:27 JST feld

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     @EvilSandmich @mloxton what's the most accurate count then?
   • Embed this notice
     Sick Sun (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:19:18 JST Sick Sun

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • feld
     @feld @mloxton @EvilSandmich we aren't going to get real numbers because of war propaganda.
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:23:47 JST feld

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • Sick Sun
     @sun @mloxton @EvilSandmich we can certainly make a good estimate. If we can figure out exactly how many tanks Germany is making per month with some statistics tricks we can figure this out too.
     
     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLCwMRJBhuI
   • Embed this notice
     Sick Sun (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:27:23 JST Sick Sun

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • feld
     @feld @mloxton @EvilSandmich I vaguely remember running into this calculation before in the past and there was some reason why it doesn't actually work. I don't expect you to take my word for it though. I am suggesting however that NATO and euromaidan will just give you a made-up number that works better for propaganda than the truth 100 out of 100 times (Russia will too but we're not inclined to believe them)
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:32:18 JST feld

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • Sick Sun
     @EvilSandmich @mloxton @sun
     
     > Wikipedia says Russia started the war with 127,000 troops
     
     I don't know where you got that number from, Russian active service members in 2024 is measured at ~1.32 million. If Russia only had 127,000 troops they wouldn't be one of the largest military forces in the world.
   • Embed this notice
     EvilSandmich (evilsandmich@poa.st)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:32:19 JST EvilSandmich

     in reply to

     • Sick Sun
     • feld
     @sun @feld @mloxton Too lazy to look up a hard number for that reason but the 500K doesn't come close to passing the smell test. Wikipedia says Russia started the war with 127,000 troops so the people peddling this 500K number are saying the Russian army has been killed 5x over? C'mon. Let's just say the same people cooking up that number are well known for extreme fatality exaggerations.
   • Embed this notice
     EvilSandmich (evilsandmich@poa.st)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:37:13 JST EvilSandmich

     in reply to

     • Sick Sun
     • feld
     @feld @mloxton @sun Sorry, they only committed that many to the initial war. For legal (and strategic) reasons they can only commit a portion of their ground forces to the "special operation" (for instance conscripts, the vast majority of their force, are ineligible to serve in an active combat role.)
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:37:13 JST feld

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • Sick Sun
     @EvilSandmich @mloxton @sun that's not true
     
     > Despite this, soldiers’ rights groups have told The Moscow Times that while not officially banned, sending conscripts to combat has been generally avoided by military leadership given the unpopularity of such a move.
     
     https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/30/russian-military-to-draft-133k-conscripts-in-fall-call-up-a86517
   • Embed this notice
     EvilSandmich (evilsandmich@poa.st)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:49:36 JST EvilSandmich

     in reply to

     • Sick Sun
     • feld
     @feld @mloxton @sun There's more to it than that but my point still stands.
     Even granting your numbers, your sources are making the case that half the Russian army has been killed and the rest of the wounded?
     Next you're going to tell me that 6 Gorillion is a real number.
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:49:36 JST feld

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • Sick Sun
     @EvilSandmich @mloxton @sun why wouldn't everyone report 500,000 if it was just propaganda? The number varies by a lot
   • Embed this notice
     EvilSandmich (evilsandmich@poa.st)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:57:38 JST EvilSandmich

     in reply to

     • Sick Sun
     • feld
     @feld @mloxton @sun >"everyone"
     That's all the same "person" taking advantage of the innumeracy of their subjects.
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 03:57:38 JST feld

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • Sick Sun
     @EvilSandmich @mloxton @sun when the war is over and the real numbers come out you'll just deny those too, so I don't see the point of having this conversation with you.
   • Embed this notice
     Sick Sun (sun@shitposter.world)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:02:51 JST Sick Sun

     in reply to

     • EvilSandmich
     • feld
     @feld @mloxton @EvilSandmich if you believe wikipedia it was 169K at the start on the border and 300K by 2023.
   • Embed this notice
     feld (feld@friedcheese.us)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:38:06 JST feld

     in reply to

     • of nothing
     @mloxton @apropos there's no point in arguing with a child pretending to be a war expert on the internet.
   • Embed this notice
     Matthew Loxton (mloxton@med-mastodon.com)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:38:08 JST Matthew Loxton

     in reply to

     • of nothing
     • feld

     @apropos
     I see. You are unhappy with the term "resorting to"

     Well, given pre-war Russian policy as per the Gerasimov plans, massed unprotected infantry attacks were not a primary method. Seen in the context that the lack of air superiority, dearth of mobile armor to bolster the troops, and the (many) specific instances of large troop loses for dubious tactical gains,

     I am therefore going to stick with "resorted", because Gerasimov's doctrine

     Now, your numbered points.

     /2
     @feld

   • Embed this notice
     of nothing (apropos@fsebugoutzone.org)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:38:09 JST of nothing

     in reply to

     • feld
     @mloxton @feld prior war propaganda told you that the Russians are in a desperate situation, which makes sense of this new war propaganda. They're desperate, so they're resorting to dumb tactics, so they're taking great losses, so (propaganda aim:) you feel better about supporting the winning side, the non-desperate side, the side that doesn't have blocking units that prevent frontline units from retreating, the Ukrainian side.
     
     That's all revealed by "resorting to".
     
     In reality:
     1. Russia's been obviously winning for a long time now and aren't remotely close to "resorting to" anything, especially in comparison to Ukraine
     2. Ukraine has blocking units. Less now since they were thrown into Kursk. Syrsky ran some himself in the Donbass.
     3. this new war propaganda therefore should strike you as much less believable, at best a result of some really lucky tactics on the Ukraine side, but certainly not something that should budge your opinion on Ukraine a single degree from "it's already over and the west is just bribing the leadership to sacrifice more of the population at least long enough to not affect the US election"
   • Embed this notice
     of nothing (apropos@fsebugoutzone.org)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:38:10 JST of nothing

     in reply to

     • feld
     @mloxton @feld
     >resorting to
     the side that's been comfortably winning for a year and a half is "resorting to" stuff now?
   • Embed this notice
     Matthew Loxton (mloxton@med-mastodon.com)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:38:10 JST Matthew Loxton

     in reply to

     • of nothing
     • feld

     @apropos

     Do you have a point to make, or was this just a drive-by display of cleverness?

     @feld

   • Embed this notice
     Matthew Loxton (mloxton@med-mastodon.com)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:56:13 JST Matthew Loxton

     in reply to

     • of nothing
     • feld

     @apropos
     Your posts are increasingly ...
     Too long
     Too aggressive
     Too stupid

     I'm out
     I have better things to do with my time than trying to sanewash and pick sense out of them
     Ciao

     @feld

     feld likes this.
   • Embed this notice
     of nothing (apropos@fsebugoutzone.org)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:56:14 JST of nothing

     in reply to

     • feld
     @mloxton @feld
     >Did I read the post?
     >I read tt.
     my post.
     obviously.
     Aren't you just fishing for disgusted insults now, so that you can block me? OK: I thought you were too lazy to read, but it's hard to tell after you've revealed this much retardation. I must now assume that you read but didn't understand.
     >pushed Russians far back
     You were asleep for the summer counteroffensive as well, I see. You remember all this stale war propaganda but didn't notice how the counteroffensive did not pushing at all, got bogged down immediately, and then got its only big "success" in an "advance" in Robotyno where roughly an entire army was sacrificed into a valley overlooked by Russian fire.
     
     You don't remember all the destroyed Leopards?
     Why are you even talking about this war?
     >"The Russians are winning."
     >By what metric?
     The "captured fortress city" metric. Just ticked up by one this week.
   • Embed this notice
     Matthew Loxton (mloxton@med-mastodon.com)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:56:15 JST Matthew Loxton

     in reply to

     • of nothing
     • feld

     @apropos
     Did I read the post?

     I wrote it.
     WTF are you talking about?

     I think you are confusing who you are speaking to. I didn't post an Wikipedia article. That was someone else.

     "have you been asleep since the 2023 "summer counteroffensive""

     The one in which Ukraine had already pushed Russians far back, but couldn't break through Russian line and culminated?
     Yes, I saw that.

     "The Russians are winning."

     By what metric?

     @feld

   • Embed this notice
     of nothing (apropos@fsebugoutzone.org)'s status on Thursday, 03-Oct-2024 04:56:16 JST of nothing

     in reply to

     • feld
     @mloxton @feld no, it's obviously not that I care about the phrase itself. Did you even read the post? Why don't you try thinking a little more before trying to wikipedia-filibuster me.
     >lack of air superiority
     >death of mobile armor
     >large troop losses
     >dubious tactical gains
     have you been asleep since the 2023 "summer counteroffensive"? The Russians are winning. They have been wining all this time. All you have to have done to see that is tune in at least once a month to see how the front's moved. Their war goals also don't have any time limits that you could even imagine up since Putin just got reelected and the sanctions are only hurting the west.