@deprecated_ii the problem with grid scale it means "can scale independently of weather conditions" and if you are going to do that with solar or wind, you need another technology to sit in the middle.
@WandererUber if you want to really get into it, you have to figure in the costs to make all that steel, isn't not being picked from trees, because fresh steel still requires coal.
@sickburnbro Uranium is interesting, because 1 kg of the stuff contains 24,000,000 kWh but I need to find a figure of how many tons you need to mine to get 1 ton of U-235
@sickburnbro I found an estimate from the World Nuclear Association that the average grade is 0.1% of uranium in a mined ton. Orano Group (Uranium mining company) says 0.7% of Uranium ore are U-235.
So for a mined ton, you get 0,000007 tons of U-235, equivalent to 168 MWh
Following the same calculation that puts nuclear at 5952 mined tons plus about a 1000 tons of reactor material so 6952 vs the "terrible" 16,000 tons of solar. Not that far apart, but nuclear still comes out on top in this comparison.
@WandererUber the problem with smelting is it's a massive chemical reaction that you want to do at high volume and oh yeah it's gonna take a ton of energy no matter what you want. Steelmaking is even more difficult because you are trying to get a specific lattice structure.
The paper he is citing is from energy.gov, so the chances of it being derogatory to solar are slim.
@sickburnbro If I really wanted to get into it, I'd have to open the paper he "cites" and check his math because especially the steel numbers for PV seem like a complete asspull and since the guy "forgot" to include all the actual fuel in his "mining comparison" I'd assume malice at this point.
But you are right. I think there is some research in the steel industry away from coal and other fuels/electricity because this makes the result more controllable and enables high performance materials but mass adoption remains to be seen.
@Wiz@deprecated_ii@sickburnbro lead acid batteries are some of the most recycled materials around but they're still lead, still in plastic cases, and heavy as shit so there's a lot of packaging material around them which is usually styrofoam
@deprecated_ii@sickburnbro bro just buy giant banks of batteries you can pick the kind that needs replaced every 3-5 years (much more often if draining and recharging them regularly) or the kind that are really expensive and might last 10 but are also prone to starting hellish fires that can reignite on their own after being submerged in water for 30 days
@WandererUber yes, obviously they are going to exclude the fuel, because once you start including that, then you have to say ok, and what about the fuel for the machines which mine the stuff? And the fuel for the machines which make the materials?
And then you have the derate the costs for those because of age and location.
@sickburnbro obvious. He's fudging the numbers though, attached is the chapter from the report and a screenshot of the actual table. Which prominently features the caveat "fuel excluded" (and I'm trying to find out what exactly is the source for all that steel for PV right now. Interesting :thonktinfoil: )
Either he doesn't know what he is talking about or he intentionally left that out when he titled his little baby chart "Material Requirements"
@sickburnbro Did you look at the chart from the source? they DID include ALL material costs for upstream energy collection but ONLY for the renewables. Using this chart for the purpose that the tweet did is completely nonsensical.
We had this discussion about energy in, energy out for solar before. Solar has a positive EROI and the figure is not that bad
>the purity of silicon needed for solar. The cost in energy to produce that silicon A 400 Wp solar panel weighs about 20 kg. Let's pretend ALL of it is pure silicon. As per your link, the energy needed would only be 220 kWh. A 400 Wp solar panel will produce this amount of electricity in 55 days.
@WandererUber no, the EROI for solar is negative and rather bad. It's been bad for 20 years, because engineers ran numbers back then assuming the best possible conditions on the earth it was bad.
I've got a buddy, master electrician, owns the Ford Lightning, owned a business laying solar fields with pile drivers and obviously is a huge solar guy. He thinks the technology is coming along nicely, and is a great investment at present. Now I say this because he's a pretty smart guy but could be dead wrong and why is it so hard to do an end to end solar cost analysis? If people are leaving out the silicon manufacture that's a big fucking deal, so why has no neutral party done this? Wouldn't smart mother fuckers who want to invest in actual real money making investments do this kind of leg work?
@VikingWays@WandererUber the reason why it seems like a good investment is because the government is throwing billions of dollars at it. But what is worse is that we don't know what China is spending to maintain their control ( time.com/6564184/chinese-solar-panels-cost/ as a recent example of people worrying )
@sickburnbro >substantial costs yes, and I assumed worst case for your pure silicon argument. Not that substantial. What about my result do you disagree with?
There are plenty of analyses that take an enourmous trail of externalities into account, including the DOE one the original tweet cites incorrectly, as I've said before.
@sickburnbro >It's this much >Then the panel would need X kWh. That's not that much >It's more how much more?
>Again, I'm not going to go into detail. If you can't go into detail, look at the big picture (attached) You can read from the report [1] (or one of the many similar ones) directly and find where you disagree, if you like. But I'd be interested in hard numbers. You wouldn't accept some guy arguing "nuclear has hidden costs" as a solid argument either.
@WandererUber@VikingWays you need to size any thing you are looking to power based on average draw as well as instantaneous draw. Something like a well pump is going to have high draw on start, and because it's a coil part of the draw will be reactive power.
@VikingWays@sickburnbro Couple of ways, either shut all your power off except for the pump and look at the meter while it's running, or a bit more accurately with one of those "measurement socket things" that you plug into before going into the actual outlet.
I thought you might know what kinda pump you got there, but I can run with an estimate. Internet says 2,500 W for a pump that does 2500 gallons an hour. Does that sound about right for yours?
@VikingWays@sickburnbro they don't leave it out. More or less neutral parties are doing this. It's trivial to calculate an upper bound, look at what I wrote two posts up the chain. Solar cost analysis is different from this because there you'd wanna know if you save money by installing solar. Such an estimate is even easier to calculate and plenty homeowners do it before installing solar.
@WandererUber ok, so they define their method using only energy. "Alsema estimated 4200 and 5700 MJ/m2 for multi- and mono-Si modules, respectively [5]. " is closer to what I would expect but still seems optimistic.
@sickburnbro We went through this whole thing because you said solar had negative EROI and now a breakeven time of just 3 years is >closer to what you would expect and just a bit "optimistic" ?
Me I'm just trying to figure out how many solar panels and how big my inverter needs to be to run this farm if SHTF or we get an ice storm or tornado, whichever comes first.
@sickburnbro I mean if 3 years breakeven on energy is close to your estimate, you basically are agreeing with me that EROI is positive and it's not even close
@WandererUber no, I'm talking about the costs for producing the cells alone. 3 years EROI is wrong, and if you look at their calculations is to be taken at "all solar energy supplied to cells are turned into useful work" - which is fine for calculations but if anything should be marked minEROI to show that it isn't a real usage figure.
@VikingWays@WandererUber you shouldn't do that. You should try to figure out how much energy the pump uses, and how much water heaters take for when there is that ice storm.
There is some learning to do, but you should know. You might find that a smaller solar system plus a generator might be a good option.
@VikingWays@sickburnbro In general, you should get the biggest array you have space for, because the array is going to be way cheaper than lithium batteries. Store the energy as heat in your house (heatpump / AC) or water tank (they make resistive heaters especially for this)
Take a minute to calculate your costs if it's gonna be a plant this big, I thought you only wanted to run your pump
If you're worried about ice storms, probably not your best bet. If you install it right, it won't break but you're not gonna get much power out solar in 10 ft visibility, cloudy day, frozen panels. You're gonna have to wipe the frost off at least.
Cost wise I don't do usury so it's probably just for the pump for now so i can get animals water. I just figured I'd see max cost for house and well and then sigh at the outrageous cost and do well.
@sickburnbro >3 years EROI is wrong Why is it wrong?
>if you look at their calculations is to be taken at "all solar energy supplied to cells are turned into useful work" - No, it's to be taken as "at this point in time, the solar panel has produced as much energy as it took to make it" If they're off by a factor of 6, EROI is still positive. Solar panels last 20 years minimum.
You just keep saying what you've been saying but you're pulling all your arguments out of thin air. The one time you actually gave an example of a supposed "energy intensive" process that would make EROI overall negative, I explained to you that even in the absolute nonsensical worst case, whole panel made of purest silicon, it wouldn't make it negative. How on earth are you still saying this?
@WandererUber remember, what I am talking about here is feasibility of solar as a base load generation technology.
One of the main components of something being feasible for base load generation is "will this make recreating these items in 50 years be cheaper or more expensive"
@VikingWays@sickburnbro That's basically nothing. You could probably get by with a DC pump, a car battery and one big panel. Probably skip the battery if you had a tank at ground level. That little is rainwater territory in some places. Really wanna know what kind of pump you got that you need a well house. Get back to me when you find out please.
These are ChatGPT estimates based on the animals and 4 adults. I am sure this is a low ball number for 'times are tough and we are just surviving and not thriving'. I'm buying a clamp meter tonight and ill call the well company about the specs of the new pump they put in.
@Forgetful_Gynn@sickburnbro They use a measurement of the total yearly irradiance for the location plus the inclination of the roof you enter. This and some very simple trig (sine and cosine) give you a good estimation.
If you need more help with your 8th grade math homework, let me know. Getting silly at this point :blobrollingeyes:
@Forgetful_Gynn@sickburnbro >any numbers on that? I'm not meaning to make you do all the work here Nah, that's fair enough. Anecdotally on my uncle's property he gets about 1/4 of the output of the south side on north. That's the difference between hot water and running off the batteries until dawn and paying out his ass for grid power. For a good estimate you'd probably run one of the many available online calculators, once for dead south at your location, once for dead north.
West side is best if you got it, because you use most energy when you're home (afternoon, evening) and you'd save on batteries
@WandererUber@sickburnbro >south europe Yeah I've heard the breakeven stats only really apply close to the equator.
>efficient Any stats on how much less efficient?
I don't really need a map since it's obvious the solar flux is highest at the equator. There's also weather to contend with shortening the productive time per day. Not to mention how residential solar is mostly installed on angled roofs which only get the proper light a portion of the day. Combining that with the degradation of efficiency it probably does get pretty piss-poor after a while. What's the cutoff voltage for replacement in the warranties?
@Forgetful_Gynn@sickburnbro >close to the equator. Southern Europe isn't anywhere close to the equator. It's further north than Texas.
>angled roofs which only get the proper light a portion of the day Nobody puts solar panels flat, angled makes the most sense inclination wise. Shadows are a problem but even if your roof runs East-West you can just put panels on both sides, even north-facing is worth it.
>it probably does get pretty piss-poor after a while. Everything decays. If you think 30 years of solid output and probably more at reduced efficiency isn't good enough, you do you.
>What's the cutoff voltage for replacement in the warranties? depends on the supplier. It's basically never cutoff "voltage" though, not sure where you got that from. It's a percentage of the rated output in watts, most of the time.
>just buy more panels yeah I guess that'd be an option. The south/north ones do lose out on total energy tho.
>solid output any numbers on that? I'm not meaning to make you do all the work here, but if you're the one providing the numbers then you'll likely find the ones most favorable to your side.
@WandererUber@sickburnbro Where on the breakeven cost page does it say where the solar panels they tested were installed? Like where in relation to the equator?
@Forgetful_Gynn@sickburnbro >breakeven Southern Europe, so basically dead center in the US. I've edited the post because I accidentally cropped it off, good catch!
>lifetime Basically doesn't matter as long your not in Antarctica or death valley. They give you a 25 year warranty in all of Europe or the US and even after that it's not broken, just less efficient. I'll see if I can find a study that has this in relation to climate.
See this link for a solar irradiation map so you can estimate the energy breakeven at other locations (keep in mind this is not money breakeven!) globalsolaratlas.info/