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   clacke (clacke@libranet.de)'s status on Thursday, 09-Mar-2023 18:43:44 JST clacke

   in reply to

   • John Gruber
   • Tom
   • Dan Provost
   @tommertron @gruber @danprovost Batteries improve by a few percent each year. My 2022 10 Ah powerbank weighs half and is half as thick as my 2012 10 Ah powerbank.
   
   CPUs however no longer follow Moore's curve.
   • Embed this notice
     Tom (tommertron@masto.yttrx.com)'s status on Thursday, 09-Mar-2023 18:43:50 JST Tom

     in reply to

     • John Gruber
     • Dan Provost

     @gruber @danprovost Fair enough. I guess what I find is people tend to assume batteries improve like CPUs improve, a la Moore’s Law, which they decidedly do not.

   • Embed this notice
     John Gruber (gruber@mastodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 09-Mar-2023 18:43:51 JST John Gruber

     in reply to

     • Tom
     • Dan Provost

     @tommertron @danprovost Disagree. Today’s batteries would amaze folks from 20 years ago. The ones 20 years ahead would amaze us today. But batteries need generational, not incremental, leaps.

   • Embed this notice
     Tom (tommertron@masto.yttrx.com)'s status on Thursday, 09-Mar-2023 18:43:52 JST Tom

     in reply to

     • John Gruber
     • Dan Provost

     @danprovost @gruber This makes me think of another truism that I’m inventing right now: “Everyone assumes battery tech will magically get way better over time, but it basically never does.”

     IMO, we’ve hit a plateau in battery tech. Best we can do is make chips and radios more efficient to draw less power (and there are obvious hard limits there too.)

   • Embed this notice
     Dan Provost (danprovost@mastodon.social)'s status on Thursday, 09-Mar-2023 18:43:53 JST Dan Provost

     • John Gruber

     @gruber “One of tech’s truisms that has no exceptions: We overestimate how much progress we can make in a year, and underestimate how much we can make in a decade.”

     I also believe this to be true but I’ve been thinking of one exception recently. Imagine someone holding an iPhone 6 in 2014 and asking them how thin do they think phones will be in 2023. Based on the trajectory up until that point, they would have guessed, what, the thickness of a credit card? Who would have guessed it’d reverse?