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@gruber “One of tech’s truisms that has no exceptions: We overestimate how much progress we can make in a year, and underestimate how much we can make in a decade.”

I also believe this to be true but I’ve been thinking of one exception recently. Imagine someone holding an iPhone 6 in 2014 and asking them how thin do they think phones will be in 2023. Based on the trajectory up until that point, they would have guessed, what, the thickness of a credit card? Who would have guessed it’d reverse?