Notices by AkaSci 🛰️ (akasci@fosstodon.org), page 14

Of course, it is still very early in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Atlantic storm activity ramps up in August and peaks during the first half of September.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
#Beryl #Hurricane
8/n

Here is the newly formed eye of Hurricane Beryl. Rapid intensification is forecast for the next 24 hours.

In the GOES-16 satellite IR image of Hurricane Beryl below, the eye clearly stands out 👁️.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12048&y=8184&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240630103021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
#Beryl #Hurricane
12/n

An AF and a NOAA recon aircraft have reached Hurricane Beryl and are making measurements, as they crisscross through and around the eye of the hurricane.

Both aircraft have measured wind speeds of 125 mph. See graphs below from the AF300 mission.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
#Beryl #Hurricane
11/n

The fingerprints of Climate Change are all over Hurricane Beryl and over the forecast for the above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.

Sea-surface temperature anomaly (deviation from norm) is breaking all-time records this year after a record year in 2023.

Heatwaves, drought, floods, storms, sea-level rise, and glacial melting are all linked to increased amount of greenhouse gases like CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere.

https://www.climate.gov/media/16175
#Beryl #ClimateChange
13/n

Hurricane Beryl at 1:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1:
Location: 12.6°N 61.9°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph 😲

Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada are feeling the brunt of its force.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12824&y=8244&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701153021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
#Beryl #Hurricane
15/n

After weakening a tad overnight, Hurricane Beryl has revved up again to 130 mph.

AF301 Mission #6, currently making observations, has measured 138 mph winds near the surface and 178 mph (!) winds near 500 m height.

The Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago are on high alert.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
#Beryl #Hurricane
14/n

Behold the mighty eye of Beryl.

Surrounded by 150 mph winds 😬

"The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb."

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/012051.shtml
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12476&y=7844&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701212021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
#Beryl #Hurricane
17/n

Pic from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft WP-3D Orion NOAA42 in the eye of Hurricane Beryl.

#Beryl #Hurricane
16/n

Judge Barret, while concurring, has this footnote (edited) -
"Take the President’s alleged attempt to organize alternative slates of electors.
In my view, that conduct is private and therefore not entitled to protection.

In short, a President has no legal authority—and thus no official capacity—to influence how the States appoint their electors. I see no plausible argument for barring prosecution of that alleged conduct."

#SCOTUS
2/n

Post #1 of this thread somehow got deleted. Here is is the scathing dissenting opinion by Judge Sotomayor again.

"The Court effectively creates a law-free zone around the President, upsetting the status quo that has existed since the Founding.

Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune."

https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
1/n

Today is Asteroid Day, a day to increase public awareness of the risks of asteroid impacts.

The JPL Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS) tracks Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) and provides impact probabilities in support of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office.

Various observatories around the world scan the sky for near-earth asteroids and comets.

The charts below shows the history of Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) discoveries per year, by survey and by size.

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/totals.html
1/n

For 2024, NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with -
17-25 named storms (average is 14)
8-13 hurricanes (average is 7)
4-7 major hurricanes (average is 3)

The primary drivers -
1. La Niña caused reduction in wind shear over the Atlantic Basin
2. Above normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic region
3. Stronger West African Monsoon

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-does-noaa-see-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-shaping
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
#Beryl #Hurrricane
7/n

Tropical disturbance Invest 95L in the central Atlantic is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Beryl in the next 48 hours and evolve to Hurricane status in ~4 days.

Stay tuned and vigilant.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/tcall.php
#Hurricane #Weather
1/n

Sea Surface Temperatures are relatively high in the path of Tropical Depression 2, which will create conditions ripe for rapid intensification of TD2 into Hurricane Beryl within the next 48 hours.

Sea surface temp map source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
Detailed forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
3/n

Tropical disturbance Invest 95L in the central Atlantic has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 with sustained winds of 35 mph. Won't be long before it is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl and Hurricane Beryl. Early forecast models show it strengthening to a Cat 4 hurricane.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/tcall.php
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al952024.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=ir
2/n

Tropical Storm Beryl has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday; sustained wind speeds have increased from 35 mph to 65 mph in the past 18 hours.

Its structure is more symmetric and compact; Beryl is expected to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions.

Data source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/291447.shtml
#Beryl
5/n

As expected, TD2 is now Tropical Storm Beryl, with sustained winds of 50 mph.

From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/290836.shtml -
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are abnormally favorable for strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification.
Peak intensity conservative estimate = 110 mph in 60-72 h.
After 72 h, the storm is expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause some weakening.

#Beryl
4/n

Beryl is now officially a Cat 1 Hurricane, with sustained wind speeds of 80 mph. Predicted to strengthen to 120 mph in 48 hours.

Beryl is the easternmost hurricane to form in the tropical Atlantic during the month of June, beating out a 90 year old record.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12360&y=7536&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240630003021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
#Beryl #Hurrricane
6/n

Strong words by Kinzinger.

“While I certainly don’t agree with Pres. Biden on everything, and I never thought I’d be endorsing a Democrat for pres., I know that he will always protect the very thing that makes America the best country in the world: our democracy.

To every American of every political party and those of none, I say now is not the time to watch quietly as Trump threatens the future of America. Now is the time to unite behind Biden and show Trump off the stage once and for all.”

An astute hypothesis from Prof. Brian Cox.

"Until recently my guess has been that the answer to the Fermi Paradox might be found in biology - complex biological systems are rare. I’m increasingly of the view that the reason for The Great Silence is that civilisations are inevitably crushed by the weight of nobheads shortly after inventing the internet."

Welcome to the underbelly of the Internet, aka Xitter, Prof. Brian Cox. Or just leave it and stick to the Fediverse.
@profbriancox
🤔 🪐
#Fermi