AkaSci 🛰️
Tropical disturbance Invest 95L in the central Atlantic is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Beryl in the next 48 hours and evolve to Hurricane status in ~4 days.
Stay tuned and vigilant.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/tcall.php
#Hurricane #Weather
1/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Beryl is now officially a Cat 1 Hurricane, with sustained wind speeds of 80 mph. Predicted to strengthen to 120 mph in 48 hours.
Beryl is the easternmost hurricane to form in the tropical Atlantic during the month of June, beating out a 90 year old record.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12360&y=7536&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240630003021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
#Beryl #Hurrricane
6/n
AkaSci 🛰️
As expected, TD2 is now Tropical Storm Beryl, with sustained winds of 50 mph.
From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/290836.shtml -
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are abnormally favorable for strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification.
Peak intensity conservative estimate = 110 mph in 60-72 h.
After 72 h, the storm is expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause some weakening.
#Beryl
4/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Tropical Storm Beryl has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday; sustained wind speeds have increased from 35 mph to 65 mph in the past 18 hours.
Its structure is more symmetric and compact; Beryl is expected to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions.
Data source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/291447.shtml
#Beryl
5/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Tropical disturbance Invest 95L in the central Atlantic has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 with sustained winds of 35 mph. Won't be long before it is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl and Hurricane Beryl. Early forecast models show it strengthening to a Cat 4 hurricane.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/HFSA/tcall.php
https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al952024.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=ir
2/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Sea Surface Temperatures are relatively high in the path of Tropical Depression 2, which will create conditions ripe for rapid intensification of TD2 into Hurricane Beryl within the next 48 hours.
Sea surface temp map source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
Detailed forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
3/n
AkaSci 🛰️
For 2024, NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with -
17-25 named storms (average is 14)
8-13 hurricanes (average is 7)
4-7 major hurricanes (average is 3)
The primary drivers -
1. La Niña caused reduction in wind shear over the Atlantic Basin
2. Above normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic region
3. Stronger West African Monsoon
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-does-noaa-see-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-shaping
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
#Beryl #Hurrricane
7/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Pic from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft WP-3D Orion NOAA42 in the eye of Hurricane Beryl.
#Beryl #Hurricane
16/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Behold the mighty eye of Beryl.
Surrounded by 150 mph winds 😬
"The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb."
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/012051.shtml
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12476&y=7844&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701212021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
#Beryl #Hurricane
17/n
AkaSci 🛰️
After weakening a tad overnight, Hurricane Beryl has revved up again to 130 mph.
AF301 Mission #6, currently making observations, has measured 138 mph winds near the surface and 178 mph (!) winds near 500 m height.
The Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago are on high alert.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
#Beryl #Hurricane
14/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl at 1:00 PM AST Mon Jul 1:
Location: 12.6°N 61.9°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph 😲
Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada are feeling the brunt of its force.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12824&y=8244&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701153021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
#Beryl #Hurricane
15/n
AkaSci 🛰️
The fingerprints of Climate Change are all over Hurricane Beryl and over the forecast for the above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.
Sea-surface temperature anomaly (deviation from norm) is breaking all-time records this year after a record year in 2023.
Heatwaves, drought, floods, storms, sea-level rise, and glacial melting are all linked to increased amount of greenhouse gases like CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere.
https://www.climate.gov/media/16175
#Beryl #ClimateChange
13/n
AkaSci 🛰️
An AF and a NOAA recon aircraft have reached Hurricane Beryl and are making measurements, as they crisscross through and around the eye of the hurricane.
Both aircraft have measured wind speeds of 125 mph. See graphs below from the AF300 mission.
AkaSci 🛰️
Here is the newly formed eye of Hurricane Beryl. Rapid intensification is forecast for the next 24 hours.
In the GOES-16 satellite IR image of Hurricane Beryl below, the eye clearly stands out 👁️.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12048&y=8184&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240630103021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
#Beryl #Hurricane
12/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Of course, it is still very early in the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
Atlantic storm activity ramps up in August and peaks during the first half of September.
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl continues to strengthen, now packing 85 mph winds.
Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued rapid intensification over the next 24 hours - low wind shear, deep layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. Some weakening is forecast after 48 hours due to westerly vertical
wind shear.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/300243.shtml
#Beryl #Hurricane
9/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl is strengthening more rapidly than NHC predictions. It is already a Cat 3 hurricane with wind speeds of 115 mph at 8:00 am EDT..
The Windward Islands (Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada) will feel its destructive force later tonight into tomorrow morning.
Max. winds are predicted at 130 mph in 24 hours; that number will very likely be updated upwards.
AkaSci 🛰️
In the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl, 1,844,295 customers (13.3%) are still without power in southeast Texas. High temperatures are expected throughout the rest of the week.
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl is back to hurricane status with 75 mph winds, after spending most of the day trying to regroup.
Further strengthening is expected tonight over the warm waters of the Gulf before making landfall early morning.
Beryl's track has nudged closer to Houston 🙁
AkaSci 🛰️
There is a pattern here with republican leaders and hurricanes.
Rep. Eric Swalwell -
"My family in Texas are about to be slammed by #HurricaneBeryl. And shocker!..Governor @GregAbbott_TX is out of the country. Sound familiar, @tedcruz? My God. Who the hell are these leaders? And why aren’t they held to account?"
#Beryl
27/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Winds will diminish gradually in the next 24 hours as Hurricane Beryl travels over land.
The potential for heavy rainfall, flash floods and power outages extends into Arkansas and Missouri.
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl is now grinding over the Yucatan Peninsula, south of Cancun, with wind speeds of 110 mph.
The predicted track in the gulf waters has shifted north a bit; Beryl is now expected to make landfall Monday morning near the southern tip of Texas, close to Boca Choca, as a Cat 1 hurricane with wind speeds around 85 mph. There is a good chance that Beryl will strengthen further over the warm waters of the Gulf. It will dump heavy rain in Texas.
nhc.noaa.gov/
#Beryl #Hurricane
23/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl has weakened to 65 mph winds as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula today.
It is expected to regroup and strengthen over the gulf waters over the next 2 days. The predicted track has shifted eastward with landfall further north in Texas than previous guidance, with wind speeds of 90 mph near Cat 2. This also means that Beryl will spend more time over water, giving it more time to strengthen.
Folks in south Texas should prepare for the worst.
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl is regrouping after it lost its strength and shape yesterday as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula.
It is expected to consolidate today. Conditions are more favorable for strengthening tomorrow.
The predicted track has shifted eastward with landfall now north of Corpus Christi, with wind speeds of 90 mph. This also means that Beryl will spend more time over water, giving it more time to strengthen.
Now is the time to make preparations.
AkaSci 🛰️
Some terrifying and heartbreaking scenes from Carriacou, Grenada, after it was ravaged by Hurricane Beryl.
Let's remember that each of those destroyed structures belongs to a family or a business or a community. Imagine if this were to happen to your home and community.
Hurricanes are bad enough, but when they are fueled by the forces of Climate Change, the results are catastrophic.
Let's pray that Beryl causes less damage in Jamaica today..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-raESMVS9LM
#Beryl #Hurricane
19/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl's eye is currently located right on top of the southern coastline of Jamaica.
Wind speeds = 140 mph.
Our thoughts and prayers are with Jamaica.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10500&y=7740&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=silver&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240703200021&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6
#Beryl #Hurricane
20/n
AkaSci 🛰️
A serene looking Hurricane Beryl photographed by astronauts aboard the International Space Station from 423 km above on July 1, when Beryl was swirling off the coast of Grenada in the Caribbean Sea.
More pics at https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa2explore/albums/72157657768950605/
#Beryl #Hurricane #ISS
21/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl - the track so far, which matches forecasts very well, and the track over the next 5 days.
Current wind speeds = 120 mph.
Now expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula south of Cancun and make landfall again in Mexico, Monday morning, ~50 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, as a Cat 1 hurricane with wind speeds around 75 mph.
AkaSci 🛰️
Here are some new images from inside the eye of Hurricane Beryl from aboard the WP-3D Orion NOAA43 “Miss Piggy” Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
Wind speeds have increased overnight to 165 mph. Beryl is expected to weaken gradually from this point onward, diminishing to 65 mph when it enters the Gulf waters late Friday, but after striking Jamaica on Wednesday.
📸: Lt. Cmdr. Kevin Doremus, NOAA Corps
#Beryl #Hurricane
18/n
AkaSci 🛰️
Hurricane Beryl has grown to a Cat 5 hurricane with wind speeds of 160 mph, defying past predictions.
The NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft, still in the storm, has measured a wind speed of 195 mph at about 500 m height.
It is expected to weaken gradually from this point onward, diminishing to 65 mph when it enters the Gulf waters late Friday.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/020252.shtml
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
#Beryl #Hurricane
17/n
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