@feld @tk @Binder @sun

> We knew COVID was going to be endemic as soon as it started spreading as widely as it did.

No we didn't. And it's still not.

> Other scenarios are, of course, possible, because there are many processes at play and much that remains unresolved.

Exactly. this is a 'what if' paper and they misjudged which scenario was coming. They had no idea that you could be reinfected a dozen times a year and were not expecting the seasonality of covid to be measured in weeks or the utter stochastic nature of what they were facing.

and they certainly didn't see the damage to the immune system that covid does coming