@Jonny @MeBigbrain @matty @pepsi_man @sickburnbro It only made "sense" to me when I diagrammed out all the possible outcomes before seeing the goat and then the new set of possible outcomes after seeing the goat. I could *see* why the result was what it was.

Then I could write it up in the usual statistical/probability formalism.

But it would never make sense to me without the pictures. I could know the result from moving the math symbols around but I would never have understood it intuitively.